Alonso (6/1) to take home the Monza double!

Italian Grand Prix, 11th September 2011, Monza

After Vettel’s early dominance this season, the remaining ‘big 4’ have begun to show that F1 is not just a German’s sport. Unfortunately this was not the case 2 weeks ago when Vettel won at Spa. However in my opinion, this was only due to Red Bull’s technical call of driving mainly on slicks and going for more stop. I suspect to see a resurging fight back from the other teams, especially Ferrari as this is their home track.

The Track
As we know Monza is all about high speeds and fast corners but what I find interesting is the fact that FIA have gone for 2 DRS zones during the race. Even though teams will be riding with already skinny back wings, having 2 zones is definitely going to promote overtaking. Tyre wear and blistering is going to be a big concern for teams, as drivers race around extremely high speed right hand turns. Teams will be forced into using more of the medium compound Pirelli's and less slicks. The McLaren drivers have have shown their worth on the harder tyres this season, while Vettel has struggled to match them, definitely a factor worth considering.

To Win Outright
Sebastian Vettel 13/10
Lewis Hamilton 28/10
Fernando Alonso 6/1
Jenson Button 13/2
Mark Webber 12/1
3 places @ 12%

Ferrari

Alonso: On the lookout for his 2nd consecutive Monza title.

Even with Alonso not making the most of qualifying we can expect a lot more from the man who won this race last season and in the past for McLaren. Italians and Ferrari fans will be urging the Spaniard on, and with his undoubted ability, a win at Monza is definitely a possibility. Alonso will be using Ferrari’s new front wing tips (a mimic of McLaren’s) which should give him a slightly better aerodynamic edge. The race last season was a two horse race for the chequered flag, with Vettel and Alonso vying for the top step of the podium. Each driver picked up 3 wins from the final 6 races. I expect nothing less this time around from the only driver to sport gangster caps.

Massa has not shown any of the form this season which he did in 2008. That was when he was still driving with the flying Finn as a team mate and only just missed out to Hamilton in the driver’s championship by 1 point. He definitely still has it in him and he showed glimpses of this in qualifying and the early stages of the race in Belgium. Although he did show some pace in Practice 3, his qualifying time let him down, and it looks as though he may be letting down his fans again on Ferrari’s biggest race of the season.

McLaren
Hamilton’s pace this season has always made him a driver to consider, but I feel his confidence may be a little low after his rookie error in the last race. Hamilton never checked his mirror after an overtaking manouvere and clipped the other driver when attempting to get back into his racing line. This resulted in Hamilton’s second retirement of the season. Along with pace, a driver needs a cool temperament and I feel Hamilton’s lack of a cool head is what has let his season down and therefore don’t see him doing well on race day.

Speaking of checking your mirrors in a race, Button has admitted to using the big screens on the track in order to gage Alonso’s distance behind him during their epic dual in Monza last season. He was unable to win last year but with his great use of KERS out of the corners I feel he will once again be challenging for the race and will finish on the podium. Contract talks between himself and McLaren have taken longer than he would have wanted, and this could be just the time to show his bosses what he is really made of.

Red Bull
Webber has got worse and worse when starting a race and that could once again be what determines his fate this weekend. No matter what where he manages to finish qualifying (nothing great this time), he consistently loses out in the start. In Belgium he mistimed the start and was under revving when the lights went off. He has got all too comfortable being number 2 to Vettel and the drive to win just doesn’t seem to be there anymore. Without a win this season (his last being in Hungary 2010) and only managing to at best make podiums even though he is in the best car on the track, I doubt that the ‘crook’ will be able to come up with anything special on Sunday.

Top Team: Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull are the ones to beat

Vettel on the other hand has dominated all season long, only failing to win on 3 occasions, when he still managed to make the podium. Yet again we have another unstoppable German in the sport but as I mentioned before, other drivers have started fighting back. No surprise here that he is once again favourite, however he will still have to put in other great race to see off his challengers. He will be keeping the same rear brake ducts (also a mimic of McLaren’s) that he used in Belgium and this should give him a slight edge over the Ferraris.


Value Bet
Rosberg to place in the top 3 (93/10). Even though his qualifying time was not good, he was using medium compound tyres to save his softs. Also he is a magician off the start, which is exactly what we saw 2 weeks ago when he lead Lap 1 when only starting in 5th.

Verdict
Alonso to get his second win of the season (6/1), and Jenson to pull his socks up and get onto the podium again (8/10).

With plenty more outright markets available along with match betting (a far easier way to make a quick buck than picking the winner), there is every reason to get your bet on in time for the final European race of the season. Good luck!

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Sharks (-21.5) to make it 9 in a row for the Pumas

Sharks vs Pumas, Currie Cup, 10th September 2011, Mr Price Kings Park

The Sharks will be hoping to follow up their impressive performance against The Bulls last week when they host the Pumas at Mr Price Kings Park on Saturday evening. They were lucky to come away with the victory when these two met earlier in the season, triumphing on the day by one point thanks to an inspired performance by mercurial Frenchman Frederic Michalak, who scored all the Sharks points on the day.

Tickled pink: Terblanche recieves a rib tickler

Handicap
Sharks (-21.5) 9/10
Pumas (+21.5) 9/10

The Sharks were extremely clinical in their dismantling of the Bulls last week, despite the opposition having much of the play. They will however know that with those above them involved in relatively easy matches, 5 points will be a necessity here. The Pumas almost caused an upset in round 2 and coach John Plumtree is well aware of what they are capable of, “We have a lot of respect for this Pumas side.” Plumtree said. There is little doubt that they will be good enough to see off the Pumas but good enough to get 5 points, we’ll have to wait and see.

The Pumas were condemned to their 8th consecutive defeat of the season when they went down at home 34-20 to the Lions last week. They acquitted themselves well but faded towards the end and they know that they will need to put in an 80 minute performance here if they are to get anything out of this match. They have struggled on the road this season and have been on the end of a couple big results, notably their 80-16 reverse at the hands of the Cheetahs in their last away fixture.

Previous meetings

Pumas 22 – 23 Sharks

Pumas 14 – 30 Sharks

Sharks 27 – 17 Pumas

Team news

The Sharks have replaced the injured Charl McLeod with the impressive Conrad Hoffman, who brought a much needed intensity to their game last week. Eugene Van Staden and Jandre Marais miss out and are replaced by Wiehahn Herbst and Alistair Hargreaves respectively.

The Pumas team remains unchanged from the team that went down to the Lions last Friday night.

VERDICT: Pumas (+21.5) 9/10
Although the Sharks were extremely impressive against the Bulls last week, their last home match gives us a bit of perspective. On that occasion they hosted the unfancied Leopards and labored to a 23-3 victory in a truly awful match. The Sharks have had the tendency in recent years to get complacent against weaker opposition and if they do so again here the Pumas could be well worth a look, maybe even at some of the shorter handicaps.

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Boks 1/7 to clear first hurdle

South Africa vs Wales, Rugby World Cup 2011, 11th September 2011, Wellington

The biggest RWC match of the weekend sees the Springboks taking on Wales in Wellington this Sunday. As we all know, the Boks are the current World Champions and they couldn’t have asked for a trickier opening fixture to start off their title defence. The Welsh have done all the talking in the build-up to this group D clash and the Champs will have no doubt that they face a massive challenge.

Morne... Overrr! Expect the boot to play a key role on Sunday.

To Win
South Africa 1/7
Draw 40/1
Wales 5/1

Welsh Coach, Warren Gatland, is one of the most miserable men in rugby, so his unflattering comments directed at the Boks need to be taken with a pinch of salt. These rugby crimes that he has accused Pieter De Villiers side of, will be used to fire up the Welsh Dragon and there’s no doubt that his side will come out guns blazing. On the flip side, no one in their right mind would suggest that a Springbok lacks courage and Wales will be on the receiving end of some huge hits should they try to take the game to the Boks. History might suggest that the last few encounters between these two teams have been close, but as Dick Muir pointed out earlier in the week, this is as far from the truth as you could get. In recent times the Springboks have fielded a largely second string XV against the Welsh, making the games seem a lot closer. We can expect the Boks to be under the pump for the first twenty minutes or so, but after that they should gain the upper hand. All this talk about Wales being a massive threat confuses me a little and I can’t see them coming close to victory.

The Springbok side named for the opener contains a total of 815 caps, yes 815. I’m a firm believer in experience and the Boks have this in abundance. The match day 22 contains 16 players who were part of the victorious 2007 squad, with 11 of them in the starting XV.  The talk from the camp seems to indicate that the Boks will stick with their no frills approach and I have no problem with this. Any points on offer will be taken and with Morne Steyn taking the shots at goal, this will be a very long evening for the Welsh. The big talking point has been the injury enforced omission of the enforcer himself, Bakkies Botha, who is out with a hamstring strain. His replacement is Danie Rossouw and this is as much as like-for-like swop a coach could want. This squad knows each other inside and out and I have no doubt they will put the Welsh away.

Head to head
Played 25: South Africa 23, Wales 1, drawn 1.

Team sheets
South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Tendai Mtawarira
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Gurthrö Steenkamp, 18 CJ van der Linde, 19 Johann Muller, 20 Willem Alberts, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Butch James.

Wales: 15 James Hook, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (captain), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Alun Wyn Jones, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Paul James.
Replacements: 16 Lloyd Burns, 17 Ryan Bevington, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Andy Powell, 20 Tavis Knoyle, 21 Scott Williams, 22 Leigh Halfpenny.

Handicap
South Africa -11.5 (9/10)
Wales +11.5 (9/10)

VALUE BET: First scoring play, SA drop goal 16/1
With both teams selecting kicking 10’s, 1/1 on a lineout/throw in for the first stoppage in play looks quite tempting, as does 16/1 for a Green & Gold Drop Goal in the first scoring play.

VERDICT: SOUTH AFRICA (-11.5) 9/10
To sum this whole up, the Boks will be too good for their opponents. It’s as simple as that. Fire the -11.5 at 9/10 and thank me later.

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Chelsea 7/10 to hit their straps

Sunderland vs Chelsea, English Premier League, 10th September 2011, Stadium of Light

The Stadium of Light plays host to a match that has never failed to produce goals in the past. Sunderland produced one of the shocks of the season when they demolished Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge last year and they will be looking for a similar surprise here against the Blues.

The missing piece: Could Juan Mata be the final piece of the puzzle.

To win(90 min):
Sunderland 41/10
Draw 5/2
Chelsea 7/10

Sunderland were the busiest of teams during the transfer window, signing no fewer than 10 players, the latest of which is the erratic ex-Arsenal striker Nicholas Bendtner. They have failed to win any of their three outings so far and coach Steve Bruce will be concerned over the lack of goals from his players, having only found the net on one occasion so far this season. Asamoah Gyan should be fit to lead the line and this will give the team a boost as they look to repeat last year’s feat. He will however have to deal with the loss of John O’Shea in defence which could mean a reshuffle at the back. Not ideal when Chelsea come to town.

Chelsea have not hit their straps yet this season, with most of the team still trying to get used to the system implemented by Andre Villas-Boas. Their starting line-up has been auspicious in the lack of a creative midfield player that can unlock defences and perhaps set their potent strike force free. The signing of Juan Mata, along with the deadline day capture of Raul Meireles may just be the perfect tonic to cure their goalscoring blues. With Petr Cech, David Luiz and Daniel Sturridge returning to the first team fold, coach Andre Villas-Boas has an almost full squad at his disposal.

Last 3 meetings at Stadium of Light:
Sunderland 2 - 4 Chelsea
Sunderland 1 - 3 Chelsea
Sunderland 2 - 3 Chelsea

VALUE BET: Any other score 43/10
With 32 in the last 7 meetings between these two, this is generally a match that produces some interesting scorelines. The Black Cats are without a clean sheet in nine home league games, conceding two or more in seven of them, while Chelsea have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven PL games. This all points towards goals, and plenty of them. Get on this market now, otherwise you can play it a bit safer with the goals over 2.5 market.

VERDICT: Chelsea 7/10
Chelsea have had a solid, if unspectacular start to the season in their quest to regain the Premier League crown. Chelsea have won 12 of the last 13 PL meetings between these sides, often by a comfortable margin. They were shocked 3-0 at Stamford Bridge last season, but I expect sanity to return and Sunderland to be put to the sword.

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Cheetahs 4/10 to add to Bulls misery

Cheetahs vs Bulls, Currie Cup, 10th September 2011 17h00, Vodacom Park

The Currie Cup game of the weekend sees the Cheetahs playing host to the hapless Bulls in Bloemfontein on Saturday afternoon. The visitors form has been more in line with that of Griquas or the Lions of years gone by, just managing to scrape home against the minnows and battling to get over the big boys. To some, this could be the upset of the weekend, as traditionally both sides have a full go at each other. The Bulls seem to be a Union on the slide, while the Cheetahs are starting to get their game together. Upset? I think not.

Dwindling: The Bulls Currie Cup hope are fading fast

Handicap:
Cheetahs -6.5 (9/10)
Bulls +6.5 (9/10)

The Cheetahs have had a bit of a strange season. There is no doubt that they still have a shot at lifting the Currie Cup, but they are too inconsistent to be considered real title contenders. They put the Leopards to the sword on the weekend, winning 64-17. There is not much to be taken from this victory though, as the Leopards seem to have forgotten how to defend. The game of two halves against Griquas a fortnight ago showed how hot and cold they can be. In saying this, we must remember that they are unbeaten at home and with a few key players back in the match day 22 the Cheetahs will put up a real challenge. Although games between these two are normally very close, I’m back the Cheetahs to cover the handicap and secure victory.

The Bulls have looked a side with lacking a bit of direction this season. Pine Pienaar’s side have to collect points in their remaining fixtures to stay in play-off contention and for a union like the Bulls to worry about something like this at this stage of the competition proves that all is not well up North. Looking at their performance against the Sharks last weekend, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that this is a new look side that is struggling to adapt to top flight rugby. The likes of Louis Fouche and flank Warwick Tecklenberg look like bright prospects, but they are far from the finished product. These youngsters have been thrown in the deep end and are sinking fast. The likes of Wynand Olivier, Gary Botha, Zane Kirchner and Flip Van Der Merwe have all been shown up by lesser known players during the season and this needs to change and change fast.

Previous meetings:
2011 Bulls 33 - 30 Cheetahs
2010 Cheetahs 20 - 14 Bulls
2010 Bulls 23 - 25 Cheetahs
2009 Cheetahs 24 - 15 Bulls

Value Bet: Cheetahs -8.5 (13/10)
This might seem little risky considering how close this fixture has been in recent times, but having watched the Cheetahs over the last few weeks, I feel that they are a side starting to come together at the right time. With their solid tight five and backline, I see the men from Bloem giving the Bulls a tough time. Cheetahs all the way.

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English Premier League

A little betting guide:

Tropical defending: I would've hated to have been Friedel.

The Premier League returns this weekend and thank god for that. I enjoy International football as much as the next guy but watching Holland demolish a country the size of Guateng 11-0 is not really my idea of entertaining football. Long live the English Premier League. This weekend gives us our first look at teams since the end of the transfer window and I for one am excited at seeing some of the faces that have arrived. So without further delay...

We start the weekend in London with perhaps the biggest dealers on deadline day playing host to Swansea. Arsene Wenger was forced to dip his wily fingers into the cookie jar and pull out a couple experienced signings on deadline day after their horrific display at Old Trafford. They should all make their debuts this weekend against a Swansea side still looking for their first goal in the top flight. Swansea have been a tough proposition in front of their fans but they did succumb 4-0 to Man City in their only away game this season. Even with all the problems surrounding the club, I expect Arsenal to pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and get the victory here.

Next we move on to Goodison Park where the departure of Mikel Arteta has to be dealt with. However The Toffees have managed to make two good acquisitions in getting winger Royston Drenthe on loan from Real Madrid and striker Denis Stracqualursi also on loan from Argentinean side Tigre. This weekend they face Aston Villa, a team that they have failed to beat in any of their last 10 meetings, however 6 of those matches have ended in a draw. Both teams have been a bit goal shy of late and with Darren Bent doubtful, this may be heading down the same path. The draw seems like a likely outcome here, especially if Alex McLeish resorts to his usual defensive tactics.

Manchester City have started the season like a house on fire as they look to step out of the shadows of their illustrious neighbours. They will be looking to continue their goalscoring spree when they host unbeaten Wigan at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday. With Edin Dzeko in fine fettle, Yaya Toure bossing the midfield and Samir Nasri pulling the strings, this City side looks more than capable of challenging for the title. Throw in the fact that they have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Wigan to nil and you have a recipe for a comprehensive home win. Man City (-1) at 13/20 seems like the best bet here.



Liverpool travel to Stoke full of confidence, on the back of their best start to the season in 19 years. The Brittania, however, is not a place to get complacent as they found out last year. Tony Pulis has continued to improve his squad over the summer and ex-Liverpool player Peter Crouch and Wilson Palacios could prove to be a couple of astute signings. Liverpool will have to be wary of the rangy striker but with Rory Delap doubtful for this match Stoke may have lost a key weapon in their artillery. Liverpool have failed to win at Stoke since their return to the Premier League so a draw could be your best bet here. Stoke have a penchant for nicking goals in the last minute, while Liverpool have showed weakness late on recently. With that in mind the late goal could be a decent bet too.

Wolves have made an impressive start to their second year in the top flight, picking up 2 wins out of 3. Their opponents this weekend, Tottenham, couldn’t have made a worse start and they will be glad to see the back of the Manchester sides for at least a couple of months.  It is tough to see where they stand, having been blown away by two teams in sublime form. They have since added last year’s PFA Writers player of the year, Scott Parker, as well as Emanuel Adebayor to their squad but have lost Jermaine Jenas and Peter Crouch. Wolves have won 2 of the last 4 between these sides with last year’s corresponding fixture ending in a draw. I fancy a similar result this time around.

Sir Alex Ferguson can’t have been too pleased with the timing of the international break, coming as it did in the middle of a purple patch for his team. This week they travel just down the road to take on Bolton who spent the break fending off offers for their star defender Gary Cahill. Owen Coyle must have had nightmares about the prospect of facing the league’s top scorers without the England international. Man Utd have a great history in this fixture, with 6 wins in their last 7 meetings. Bolton have shipped 3 goals in each of their last two matches and might just be on the receiving end of a couple more here. The United-United halftime/fulltime double could prove a wise decision here at evens.

Sunday kicks off with a match between two sides still searching for their first win. Norwich have acquitted themselves quite well on their return to the big time and were slightly unlucky not to get something out of their trip to Chelsea last time out. West Brom have been equally unlucky and were a victim of another smash and grab defeat at the hands of Stoke. Both teams have struggled for goals so far and with both Shane Long and Peter Odemwingie doubtful for Sunday’s match Norwich could just pick up their first victory of the season at 14/10. The total goals under 2.5 is worth a look too.

Fulham have struggled to find the form that they produced under Mark Hughes so far this season and have only managed one goal in their 3 matches so far. Their opponents Blackburn on Sunday will hope to forget their penalty fiasco against Everton in their last fixture and finally put some points on the board for under pressure boss Steve Kean. Kean seems out of his depth as a Premier League manager, something that I suspect Martin Jol, with all his experience, will look to exploit. I expect Fulham to twist the knife just a little bit more and run out comfortable winners here.

With the Rugby World Cup kicking off this weekend there is plenty of sport on offer to watch and maybe even make a profit on. I hope that this weekend of football can produce a couple similar matches to the dazzling displays we saw before the international break. If not, there’s always next week. And that’s it for now folks, happy punting. Sala Kahle, and so long for now.
Commodore Vegas

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Argentina 7/2 to repeat 2007 heroics

England vs Argentina, RWC 2011, 10th September, Otago Stadium

England will make their world bow on Saturday when they take on the Puma’s in Dunedin, in what should prove to be their toughest challenge of the group stages. Argentina will be looking to repeat their heroics of 4 years ago, when they upset the French in front of their home fans on their way to a third placed finish.

Don't cry for me Argentina: Expect tears during the anthem

To Win:England 2/9
Draw 33/1
Argentina 7/2

There is no doubt about it. England are a team that are built to play World Cup rugby. They have been the finalists on the last two occasions, and with the grunt upfront and the metronomic boot of Johnny Wilkinson, they have the perfect personnel for tournament rugby. In Martin Johnson, they also have a coach that knows what it takes to lift the William Webb Ellis trophy. It must also be noted that with an unfancied team and coach in the last World Cup they managed to make it all the way to the final and were a Mark Cueto toe away from lifting the cup. So with all the boxes ticked they may just be an outside bet for the title at 16/1.

Let me not pull any punches here. Argentina are not the same team they were 4 years ago. Languishing at 9th in the world they have failed to push on from their breakthrough in ’07. Don’t get me wrong they, are still a very dangerous side on their day as they have proven time and again. You can bet that there will be tears during the anthem and a real blood and guts performance from the Argentinians but the question is will it be enough? With the star from the last World Cup, Juan Hernandez missing, it will be up to Felipe Contepomi to marshal the backline.

Previous meetings:
England 16 – 9 Argentina
Argentina 24 – 22 England
England 37 – 15 Argentina

VALUE BET: First Scoring Play Argentina Try 9/1
With a relatively untested centre pairing for England and Argentina’s tendency to throw the ball around the 9/1 seems like an outside bet that may just be worth taking.

BEST BET: Argentina (+11.5) 9/10
Although Argentina doesn’t boast a great record against the English with 11 losses out of 16, the average winning margin is only 10 points. Throw in the fact that they have won 2 of their last 4 against these opponents and I can confidently say that they should cover the generous handicap here.

PREDICTION: England 3/10
England have a proven track record at World Cups and I don’t expect Martin Johnson to allow them to slip up here. However, with their style of rugby and Argentina’s tendency to up their game for the big occasion, I don’t expect this to be a high scoring, one-sided affair.

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Lazio 48/10 to shock champions in Serie A opener

AC Milan vs Lazio, Serie A, 9th September 2011, San Siro

The Serie A strike has finally come to an end, at least for one season, and this weekend the new Italian season finally with reigning champions, AC Milan hosting Lazio at the San Siro on Friday night. Lazio have had a busy off-season and will be looking to improve on their fifth placed finish last year and push for a Champions League birth this time around.

Lazio will need to keep a close watch on the dangerous Pato.

To Win (90Min):
AC Milan 13/20
Draw 5/2
Lazio 48/10

AC Milan will be looking to build on last year’s Scudetto and retain the bragging rights that they now hold over neighbours Inter Milan for the first time since 2004. There has been a bit of a shake up during the transfer window with Alberto Aquilani arriving on load to fill the void left by the departed Andrea Pirlo. French defender Philip Mexes and Nigerian Taye Taiwo have also arrived to freshen up their ageing defence. They will start the season without both though as well as battling midfielder Mathieu Flamini. The star of their last campaign, Zlatan Ibrahimovich, is also a doubt but he should be fit to play, even if it’s just from the bench.

Lazio have also been busy this season as they look to push on with the strides they made last season. Although they have made a number of signings in the off-season, including French international Djibril Cisse and German record goalscorer Miroslav Klose, those have been tempered by the loss of Mauro Zarate to Inter and Copa America star, Fernando Muslera to Galatasaray. There is an opinion that they might be a bit thin on numbers to compete on two fronts but they have at least brought some quality upfront in their bid to address their lack of goals from last campaign.

Previous meetings:
AC Milan 0 – 0 Lazio
Lazio 1 – 1 AC Milan
AC Milan 1 – 1 Lazio

VALUE BET: 1-1 CORRECT SCORE 11/2
AC Milan have scored in each of their opening day fixtures dating back to the 86/87 season. They do however have two key defenders missing and with the talent Lazio have upfront I fancy them to sneak a goal. Keeping that in mind and having a look at previous results, the 1-1 could be the perfect way to get your season up and running.

BEST BET: UNDER 2.5 GOALS 13/20
Games involving AC Milan were under 2.5 goals 58 % of the time last season and that stat rises to 63% when looking at Lazio. Games have generally been tight affairs between these two. With this being the first game of the season, I don’t expect the players to be match sharp so don’t expect too many goals here.

VERDICT: DRAW 5/2
Well there you have it. All that I needed to say has been said. It’s now up to you to decide whether I’m speaking any sense or if I ‘m just a gibbering idiot with a deluded view on the world of football.

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All Blacks (+61.5) 9/10 to romp home in opener

New Zealand vs Tonga, RWC 2011, 9th September 2011, Eden Park

The opening game sees hosts New Zealand take on Tonga at Eden Park. Looking at the betting, squads, history and pretty much everything else, the All Blacks should romp home. There’s no doubt that New Zealand will secure the victory, the question is by how much.

New Zealand will be expecting a physical encounter at Eden Park

To Win on handicap: 
New Zealand (+61.5) 9/10
Tonga (-61.5) 9/10

The two teams have met twice in Rugby World Cups, and if history is a factor in determining your punting selections, you might want to pay close attention here. In 1999, The All Blacks won 102-0. In 2003, it got a little better for the islanders, going down 91-7. 2003 was a long time ago. Tonga have improved through the majority of their players plying their trade overseas and this experience has seen them run the likes of South Africa pretty close in recent times. They will be an improved side, but there is no doubt that they have a mountain to climb.

New Zealand has selected their most experienced squad in history to break their 24 year wait for a second Rugby World Cup success. They come into the tournament as odds-on favourites to lift the cup at (7-10). They couldn’t have asked for a tougher opening game to get their campaign underway. It feels almost stupid mentioning that Graham Henry’s men will look to get their title bid off with a comprehensive victory, but as 1995 and 2007 showed us, opening games are not clear cut. None of us can fathom the pressure that the AB's must be under at the moment. In saying this, we need to remember that this a team who always play under pressure. If they click, the score could be in the triple digits here.

The Tongans are up against it. They come into this fixture with a 68 point handicap and if that doesn’t say it all then I don’t know what does. From a betting perspective, this is massive and I get the feeling that they could cover the ‘Cap for a number of reasons. The experience their key players have picked up overseas will be a massive asset, as will the support they have in New Zealand. To the majority of the Tongan squad, this will be the biggest game they play and as we’ve seen in recent years, they up their game against the top sides. For the Tongans to lose by 68 points or more a lot will have to go wrong for them. Captain Finau Maka will have to make sure that his team keep their on-field discipline in check, as a few cards could see them be on the receiving end of a All Black onslaught.

As much a Tonga are known for punching above their weight at World Cups, there’s no hiding from the fact that they face the best team in the world and there really is no way they can deliver the knockout blow here. To score 10 or more tries in international rugby is a tough ask, but if there is a team who can do it, it’s the All Blacks. This handicap is giving me headaches and I am having trouble sticking with a selection. Looking at the other markets, a New Zealand penalty at 2/1 looks quite tempting as does any forward to score the first match try at 5/2. You could also be braver than me and back Tonga on the handicap.

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Written by @BlueskiPalooski for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

How Will The Tri-Nations Sides Fair In RWC 2011?

Rugby World Cup Outright Betting Preview - SANZAR Unions

Rugby World Cup 2011 is within touching distance. As fans of the game, we have waited four long years for the biggest rugby tournament of them all. Forget the Tri Nations and Six Nations, this is the competition that counts, and as punters we couldn’t ask for more markets to have a strike on. The biggest question at the moment is who will lift the cup? Unlike soccer, rugby can’t brand itself as a global game, leaving 6 teams with a realistic chance of being crowned world champions. We start off by looking at the Southern Hemispheres top 3 teams.

New Zealand 7/10

As always, New Zealand enters the Rugby World Cup as favourites. The hosts come into the tournament on the back of two losses at the hands of South Africa and Australia. The long held belief that New Zealand peak before every World Cup has rightly been raised again. There’s no doubt that they are the best team in the world, the big question is whether they are able to handle the pressure at World Cups.

If history is anything to go by, they sure can’t. As my good friend @CommodoreVegas pointed out to me, the Indian cricket side and the New Zealand rugby team are similar, if not identical, beasts. Both countries are fanatical about their respective sport, both teams are loaded with international superstars, winning is non-negotiable and both countries take forever to get too.  When India hosted the Cricket World Cup this year, many so-called pundits said that the pressure would be too much. They were wrong. India won the World Cup, on home soil. Can you see where I’m going with this? Vegas is a big believer in history and whole lot of other mumbo jumbo I can’t get my head around. The question you need to ask yourself is whether the hosts are worth 7/10 and is the Commodore ahead of his time or just a little crazy?

In all seriousness, 7/10 is too short. The Likes of Dan Carter and Richie McCaw will have to be on top of their game to see the hosts through. There’s no doubt that the All Black squad has pace, tactical acumen, grunt, home support and a guy called Sonny Bill Williams. All of this is awesome, but can only get them so far. Now here comes the big question… does this New Zealand squad have the belief that they can win? Do the scars of the last 5 World Cups still exist? Do they still clam up when they see a Frenchman in a rugby jersey?
I’ve just realised that in saying all of the above, I’ve pretty much written the All Blacks off, which is a dangerous thing to do.

My betting strategy would be to look for value in the other exotic markets, like top try scorer for more value, as 7/10 is too short for me.

Australia 7/2

The Aussies come into Rugby World Cup 2011 riding the crest of a wave. Robbie Deans has finally got his squad to play the Crusaders kind of game that he has so desperately yearned for. Victories over full strength South African and New Zealand squads would have done a world of good for the two time champions.

Australia have long been known as a thinking side that are masters at retaining possession. Under Deans, they have added a few more strings to their bow and this is a side that needs to be taken very seriously. Their attacking options are numerous with the likes of Quade Cooper, Kurtley Beale, James O’Connor and Rocky Elsom  being able to score from anywhere on the park.

The talisman in the squad is scrumhalf, Will Genia. Genia is as close to the complete player as one could wish for. His decision making is crucial to the Wallaby cause and a lot will be expected of him. What has allowed the number 9 to showcase himself is that he is finally playing behind a pack that can rough it with the best of them. The nucleus of the tight 5 has been built around the successful Reds pack.

The more I think about this squad, the more I believe the hype around them.

Goal kicking will be a concern for management, as both O’Connor and Cooper can go missing in big games. A big talking point has been the late change of captains, with James Horwill taking over the armband from Rocky Elsom. Will this late change be seen as a Robbie Deans masterstroke, or will it resemble the Nick Mallet/Gary Teichman situation? Time will tell, but going on recent performances it seems to have worked out well.

With Robbie Deans knowing what makes New Zealand tick, current form and a great squad to choose from, this is a team that can go all the way. If New Zealand are too short, Australia at 7/2 is a great price to lump on.

South Africa 6/1

As defending Champions, The Springboks come into the tournament with a huge amount of pressure on them. Many believe that the Boks squad carries too many players long past their sell by date. As a staunch supporter of the Green and Gold, I battle to agree with all this negativity that gets bandied about, as this is the Springboks we are talking about after all.

John Smit leads the most experienced Bok squad in history at the games showpiece event and this experience will count when the pressure is on.

In 2003, Martin Johnson captained Dads army and they went on to lift the cup. Players like Johnson, Neil Back, Lawrence Dallaglio, Richard Hill, Phil Vickery and Matt Dawson were all supposedly too old to compete. These players showed that experience plays a huge part in getting a rugby team over the line. The kind of game Clive Woodward implemented in 2003, will be replicated by Pieter De Villiers in 2011. The Boks will bash it up and expect Morne Steyn to keep the scoreboard ticking over. This approach is ideally suited to winning the World Cup and as defending champions, 6/1 looks like the perfect price.

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Written by @BlueskiPalooski for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

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Kaymer (9/1) To Retain His Holland Crown

KLM Open, European Tour, 8 September-11 September, Hilversum

This weekend will see Europe’s finest tee off at Hilversumsche Golf Club in the Netherlands. The course is known to be one of the tightest on the tour and the demanding layout promises to test even the most skilled of players. After winning back to back tournaments Thomas Bjorn has decided to sit this one out and give others a chance.

To Win Outright
Rory McIlroy 15/2
Lee Westwood 15/2
Martin Kaymer 9/1
Simon Dyson 25/1
Ross Fisher 28/1
Anders Hansen 28/1
Peter Hanson 28/1

South Africans
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Thomas Aiken 90/1



VALUE BETS
SIMON DYSON (25/1 a win; 13/2 a place)
Dyson has had a stellar year so far and his 3rd place at Wentworth, a course well known for its difficulty, makes me think that his game could be suited to the tricky conditions he will face this weekend. He also won this tournament in 2009 and certainly represents some value.

NICOLAS COLASERTS (50/1; 12/1 a place)
Colsaerts returns to the tour this weekend after suffering an elbow injury earlier in the year. He is well known as a big hitter and if he manages to hit the fairway, he could easily find himself in the top 5 come Sunday. He is definitely one to keep an eye on but he may need time to adjust to life back on the tour. It is unlikely that he will be able to pull the win off in a field that includes Europe’s top golfers and a place bet here seems the way to go.

JOOST LUITEN (55/1; 14/1 a place)
The young Dutchman will have the crowd behind him this weekend as he tees off in his home country. He has come into his own this year with two top 5 finishes and will be one to keep in mind.


TOP BET: MARTIN KAYMER (9/1; 22/10 a place)
Martin Kaymer has had a disappointing season however his second place finish last weekend suggests that he may be returning to form just in time to defend the title he won here last year.  He will be eager to taste victory once again and it is tough to bet against him after examining how he decimated the field here last year. He is putting well, a requisite for any decent finish on this course and he represents my top bet for this weekend.

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Written by @Matt_Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

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Pirates (18/10) For MTN8 Glory

Orlando Pirates v Kaizer Chiefs, MTN 8 Final, Saturday 10 September, Soccer City

The annual MTN8 Cup Final is the highlight of the weekend as these two Soweto giants go head to head for that astonishing R8 million rand prize money. This will be the third time these two face up to each other this season with Pirates beating their bitter rivals in the Telkom Knockout final as well as the new Black Label Cup. The rivalry is always fierce between these two and fans will be in for an action packed encounter.

To Win (90 Min)
Chiefs 18/10
Pirates 18/10
Draw 16/10

Orland Pirates are a team in great form and are playing with real confidence. Last season was a historic episode for the Buccaneers as they won the treble, becoming the first team to achieve this since the inception of the Premier Soccer League (PSL). Pirates have continued where they left off, as they have already picked up two trophies thus far, winning both the Telkom Knockout and the Black Label Cup.

The new man in charge Julio Leal has big shoes to fit as he looks to follow in the footsteps of previous manger Ruud Krul, who entered the club into the history books. The Brazilian has made a great start thus far and has got his team playing arguably the best football in the league and producing results at the same time. A victory in this encounter will do a world of good for the manager as some fans still believe he is not the man to take the club forward. He has got huge amount of talent at his disposal in the likes of Andile Jali, Oupa Manyisa and Tlou Segolela who are all in great form and not forgetting South African legend Benni McCarthy who will add that vital experience up front.

Kaizer Chiefs have wasted little time in kicking into gear. They top the PSL log with a 100% record in the opening three encounters. Vladimir Vermezovic will be looking to go one step better than last campaign as they fell short by a single point and were eventually beaten to the title by their Soweto rivals. Chiefs lost their top goal scorer Knowledge Musona to German outfit Hoffenheim and the fans were very concerned as he grabbed the majority of their goals last season.

However the Serbian manager waisted little time in replacing the hot shot by bringing in highly rated South African international Bernard Parker. Parker is known for his goal scoring ability having plied his trade in Serbia as well as Holland, there is no doubt he will add experience as well as that extra amount of flair as he will lead the front line. Kaizer Chiefs are looking like a formidable force once again and will be looking for their first piece of silverware in this campaign.

VERDICT (90 MIN): PIRATES 18/10
This encounter is never short of fireworks as well as controversy. Both teams will be going all out for the victory. Pirates have the upper hand thus far as they have beaten their rivals twice already and look the best bet to make it a third straight win over their rivals.

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Written by Idris Moideen with @Wayde_D for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

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Valencia (9/10) For A Bright Season Start

Valencia v Atletico Madrid, La Liga, Saturday 10th September, Mestalla

The Spanish La Liga will resume this weekend with teams having only played one match so far after a players’ union strike delayed game week 1. This season looks to be one of the most anticipated seasons in a while, not because Barcelona and Real Madrid will be challenged for the title, but because of how competitive the field below them will challenge for Champions League and Europa League spots. Valencia, Villarreal, Sevilla, Athletico Bilbao, Atletico Madid and big spenders Malaga will all be contesting for those places as arguably the best two clubs in the world will contest for the Spanish La Liga title.

To Win (90 Min)
Valencia 9/10
Atletico Madrid 29/10
Draw 24/10

Valencia were clearly the third best Spanish side last season but not strong enough to challenge Barca and Madrid for top honours. They have steadily lost big name players such as David Villa, David Silva and more recently Juan Mata to bigger clubs because of the financial difficulty the club finds itself in.

After letting go of Juan Mata to Chelsea they brought in a smart signing in Dani Parejo from Getafe and Pablo Piatti who excelled at times for an Almería side who were little other than awful on their way to relegation. They’ve strengthened their goalkeeping options and, crucially, central defence with Adil Rami of French Champions, Lille. Then of course there is the loan signing of Sergio Canales after his year in the wilderness at Real Madrid. The Madrid kid is a real talent, and should certainly light up the La Liga if given consistent game time this season. The loss of their most influential player is the main reason they face a tough task of holding 3rd spot this season however they have a number of talented players who can prove key throughout the season.

Atletico Madrid finished 5th last season, 13 points behind Valencia and will be no doubt eyeing 3rd spot this season. Atletico looked to have made some good signings after letting go of their three biggest stars in Sergio Aguero, Diego Forlan and David De Gea. They brought in highly rated Colombian Radamel Falcao and the promising attacking midfielder Ruben Micael for a combined €46m from FC Porto after selling Aguero to Manchester City. Earlier moves saw them bring in the highly rated Arda Turan from Galatasaray and Sílvio of Braga, alongside Gabi of Zaragoza. Finally, former underage starlet Dani Pacheco was drafted in on loan from Liverpool.

The picture suddenly looks a lot brighter for new boss Gregorio Manzano. As a man who believes in building team unity, and seeing the departure of those three players, he has a great opportunity to construct a new formidable team. Much will be expected of Falcao, and fortunately here there is much more to the forward’s game than what was seen at Porto; where he was asked to play a limited game, holding his position up front to showcase his finishing and sublime heading ability while the rest of the team worked and pressed. With the excellent Jose Antonio Reyes approaching something close to his Sevilla and early Arsenal form in recent years, they have potential to finish teams.

VERDICT (90 MIN): VALENCIA 9/10
Valencia won their first match 4-3 against Racing Santander at home while Atletico failed to overcome visitors Osasuna in a goalless draw. Valencia came out 2-1 victors in their recent meeting and are tipped here.

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Written by @Wayde_D for Soccer Betting News (SBN) and @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

Prices are correct at the time of writing. Prices are subject to change.

Currie Cup Round Up: Week 8

ABSA Currie Cup Round Up after Round 8

The halfway point in the Currie Cup has come and gone. In years gone by, the bigger unions have normally occupied the top 4 positions on the log and this year is no different. The Lions (28/10) head the table with  points, closely followed by Western Province (33/10), the Sharks (5/2) and Griquas (25/1). The Cheetahs (6/1) and Bulls (8/1) sit just outside them, predictably followed by the Pumas (2000/1) and Leopards (2000/1).

To Win Outright
Sharks 5/2
Lions 28/10
Western Province 33/10
Cheetahs 6/1
Bulls 8/1
Griquas 25/1



The Lions (28/10) are in the unfamiliar position of log leaders.  John Mitchell has assembled a young side that seem desperate for success. Mitchell has kept the majority of the Super 15 squad together, and this continuity has paid dividends as he has transformed a desperate union into serious title contenders in 2011. I have no doubt that they will make the play-offs and possibly get into the final. The question I keep asking myself is twofold: do they have enough experience to see them through this difficult period? And what happens if they have to play away from home? This is a squad that has young, inexperienced players in crucial decision making positions, if the pressure is on, will they crumble? Their away record isn’t the greatest, and this worries me as a punter. At 28/10, I would stay away for the moment.

As defending Champions, the Sharks (5/2) know exactly what is required to win the competition and this experience should see them through to the play-offs.  Their form has been solid, with 6 wins from seven outings thus far. The big talking point for the title holders has been their inability to cross the whitewash. They might not be easy on the eye, but this is a team that knows how to win, possess a formidable squad and have an experience to do it. Out of the shorter priced teams, I believe it is worth having a strike on the Sharks at  5/2.

If there’s a team that have it all to play for, it’s Western Province (33/10). The men from the Cape must be sick of being bridesmaids. Their inability to get over the final hurdle is starting to become a problem and sooner or later the dreaded “C” word will start being thrown around. Looking at their run in to the play offs, they have a few tough assignments ahead of them. The depth of their squad will be a concern, and like the lions, they have a rather inexperienced starting XV. There seem to be too many unanswered questions here, and as a punter, confidence plays a big role in determining my selections. I can’t punt the Province boys with much confidence.


The Cheetahs (6/1) are currently the value side in the competition. This is a Union that lives for the Currie Cup, as in all reality, it’s the only trophy they have a chance at winning. Their form hasn’t been fantastic, but they are notorious for putting in a late charge come end of season. I’ve been impressed with the way they have been able to mix up their game, between playing it tight and throwing it around and this will come in handy if the reach the final. Make no mistake about it, they have a mountain to climb to get there, but if you are looking at having a punt, you can’t get hurt at 6-1.

Where to start with the Bulls? The men from Pretoria will be looking to the sky for some guidance, because at the moment they resemble a team that’s everywhere and nowhere. We all know that the Bulls are a side that plays direct, uncompromising rugby, and this has bought them success over the last 10 years. They still play the same game, but lack the leadership to implement it. This is a squad loaded with past and present Springboks; the likes of Wynand Olivier, Zane Kirchener, Gary Botha and Jaco Engels have all experienced massive success with the union and know what is expected from them. The Bulls have to keep winning; they have no other alternative if they want to get into the playoffs. Their biggest problem is that they lack leadership, and when the heat is on, will Gary Botha be able to rally his troops and get the job done? I don’t think so. With the Bulls currently at 8/1, some might see a bit of value here. I certainly don’t.

Griquas (25/1) have had another top season considering the players they have available to them. This is a team that manages to rough it with the big boys and has pulled off a few surprise victories thus far, accounting for the Cheetahs and Sharks. Their biggest issue is their inability to win away from home, making it incredibly difficult to reach the playoffs. Their chances of them winning the competition are slim to none.

Putting Provincial allegiance aside is one of the keys to finding value and success in the Currie Cup. Of course we all want our teams to win the competition, but the reality is that the Sharks and Lions are the two standout teams. A punt on the Cheetahs could also see you profiting nicely.

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Australia 22/10 to wrap up the series

Sri Lanka vs Australia, 2^nd Test Match, Thursday 8^th September 2011, Pallekele Stadium

The new look Australians will look to seal a series victory in Sri Lanka when they take on the hosts in the second of three tests. Both teams will be hoping for easier batting conditions than what was on offer at Galle, with Michael Clarke claiming “day one felt like day five” in the first test. Although the winning margin of 125 runs seems to suggest that Australia dominated proceedings, it is a little misleading. As they did in Cardiff earlier this year, Sri Lanka lost the test match in one session and it may have gone down to the wire if not for a horrible batting collapse in their first innings.

Michael Clarke and co will be looking to close out the series

To Win:

Sri Lanka 24/10

Draw 12/10

Australia 22/10

Australia should be happy with their performance, in what were extremely trying conditions in Galle. Their inexperienced side acquitted themselves well, with both Nathan Lyon and Trent Copeland impressing with the ball. Usman Khawaja showed that he has a calm head on his young shoulders, while Michael Hussey continued to prove his worth to the team. With Ricky Ponting flying back home for the birth of his child, Shaun Marsh will make his debut, while Khawaja should fit into the number 3 position.

It will be interesting to see how Sri Lanka react to the result of the first test. With their chief destroyer from the one-day series, Ajantha Mendis, waiting in the wings they certainly have the ability to turn it around. Mahela Jayawardene and Angelo Matthews showed what was possible on a tough wicket with a little more application and Sri Lanka will be looking for more from their skipper, Tillakaratne Dilshan, who lost his wicket in reckless circumstances in both innings.

This is only the second test to be played on this ground after the drawn test against West Indies in December. That match was heavily affected by rain, with not even one innings being completed. With rain being forecast for every day of the test, we can’t quite be sure of a result on this occasion. Much depends, of course, on the pitch which hopefully will give these evenly matched sides a chance to produce a thrilling test. 

BEST: Top Australian Batsman, MICHAEL CLARKE 7/2

Michael Clarke slowly seems to be finding his form following a disappointing Ashes series. He has been the most consistent of their batsmen through the warm up matches and top scored in their second innings in Galle with a fluid 60 in tough conditions. If he can carry that form into this test then he is a solid bet to top the list again.

VERDICT: AUSTRALIA 22/10

Australia continued what is a quite astonishing record against Sri Lanka when they won their 14^th match out of 17 in Galle. They have won the last 6 tests in Sri Lanka now and with Sri Lanka continuing to show inconsistency with their batting, Australia could just secure the series here. It is a risky bet with rain predicted but you can always keep an eye on the in-running betting if things get close.

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Written by @CommodoreVegas for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

Super Eagles 6/1 to sink their talons into La Albiceleste

Argentina vs Nigeria, International friendly, Tuesday 6th August 2011, Dhaka

The second big clash between South America and Africa in as many days has La Albiceleste taking on the Super Eagles in Dhaka. Argentina will be looking for revenge after their surprising 4-1 defeat at the hands of the same opposition in Abuja in June. That match had some controversy surrounding it, with an alleged betting scandal involved in the final outcome. Let us hope that this is a “cleaner” match and if not let’s hope we can get our hands on some inside information.

Nigeria will have to keep a close watch on Messi

To Win (90 Min):

Argentina 9/20

Draw 31/10

Nigeria 6/1

It must be noted that this Argentina side is a considerably different side to the experimental squad they took to Nigeria in the build up to the Copa America. There has also been a change at the helm, where Alejando Sabello has come in to try and find a system that will get the best out of his star players. It seems strange to say it, but it is upfront where Argentina have struggled in recent times. They were goal shy in the Copa America and only managed one victory, over Costa Rica U23, in what was a dismal campaign. Sabello’s reign started with a 1-0 victory over Venezuela but there still seems to be plenty of work to do.

Nigeria have experienced an upturn in their fortunes since the appointment of Samson Siasia, dubbed the “Nigerian Arsene Wenger” for his penchant for giving youth a chance. He seems to be outperforming his namesake at this moment as Nigeria have yet to lose a game under him. They have won 5 of their last 6 games, scoring 16 goals and conceding 4 in the process. This will be his sternest test so far, not only because of the opposition but Nigeria will be missing a number of key players. Taye Taiwo, Peter Odemwingie, Victor Anichebe and Danny Shittu will all miss the match through injury.

Previous matches

2011: Nigeria 4-1 Argentina

2010: Nigeria 0-1 Argentina

2002: Nigeria 0-1 Argentina

BEST BET: NIGERIA (+1) 31/20

Nigeria are a much improved side under Samson Siasia, who has brought a consistency to their performances in his time in charge. Last night proved that African football is on the up and I believe that Nigeria can push a full strength Argentina all the way here. With Argentina’s current lack of goals I see no reason why Nigeria can’t finish within one goal, especially if the Dhaka pitch proves to be a difficult surface to play on.

VERDICT: DRAW 31/10

Argentina have flattered to deceive for a number of years now, purely because they have failed to develop a system that has been able to utilise Lionel Messi’s prodigious talent. It is still early days under the new coach and I don’t expect Argentina to be firing on all cylinders, especially in the heat of Dhaka. I don’t expect too many goals in this one and the draw looks the best option here.

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England (1/8) to win battle of the home nations

England v Wales, European Championship Qualifier, Tuesday 6 September 2011, Wembley

The partnership between Rooney and Young is beginning to flourish

We continue our focus on the international football this week as England look to break a four game winless streak at Wembley when they take on neighbours, Wales, who will be looking to salvage some pride after a disappointing campaign.

To Win (90 Min)
England 1/8
Wales 16/1
Draw 56/10

England have had an impressive qualifying campaign but Fabio Capello must have concerns over their home form, having not won in just over a year on the hallowed Wembley turf. That win came just over a year ago against Bulgaria and they will be looking to find their way back to winning ways against Wales, whom they haven’t lost to at home since 1977. Capello will also be buoyed by the fact that Wayne Rooney has found his scoring boots again, having gone 15 matches without a goal in international action, until his brace on Friday. It will be interesting to see how England line up and whether Capello continues with 2 defensive midfielders in what is effectively a must win match.

Gary Speed will be facing an uphill battle to get something out of this match in what is only his third game in charge. He has tried to install a new system, encouraging his players to keep the ball on the ground and pass the ball out of the back and it seems to be paying dividends with an impressive performance and result against Montenegro on Friday. Welsh hopes of grabbing a shock result will have taken a blow with the suspensions of David Vaughan and Craig Bellamy who picked up bookings in that match. They will be boosted however by the return of Gareth Bale who missed out on the 2-0 defeat at the Millennium Stadium earlier this year.

2011: Wales     0-2     England
2005: Wales     0-1     England
2004: England  2-0     Wales

VERDICT (90 Min): ENGLAND 1/8
England showed the gulf in class between the two nations in the encounter in Cardiff where the game was effectively sealed in the first 15 minutes. England’s final match of the group is a tricky trip to Montenegro, so they can afford no slip ups here. I expect them to be clinical here and put themselves within one point of qualification.

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Black Stars (63/10) to upstage the Brazilians

Brazil vs Ghana, Friendly, Monday 5th September, Craven Cottage (London)

Ghana to upstage the Brazilians?

Craven Cottage (the home of Fulham football) hosts an international friendly tonight, as the Black Stars of Ghana and Brazil go head to head at 20h45. After failing to get past the quarter-final stage of the Copa America, as well as a disappointing World Cup last year, Brazil football seems to be in a rebuilding process, and a win here tonight will revive some of that confidence for the champions of the past.

To Win (90 Min)
Brazil 9/20
Ghana 63/10
Draw 32/10


Brazil have only won one of their last five matches, and drawn three of them (two of these were against Paraguay in the Copa America). They suffered a 3-2 defeat to Germany in a friendly at the beginning of August, where all five goals arrived in the second half. Some of the Brazilian flair has seriously been missing, and they need to make the most of their opportunities tonight to regain some confidence.

Ghana on the other hand are a team on form. They are sitting pretty at the top of their AFCON table, after registering four wins and a draw in their five pool matches. They managed a 1-1 draw against England in a friendly at the beginning of March, but they did go down to South Korea 2-1 in a friendly played in June. The bad news from the Ghana camp is that they will be without stalwarts Gyan and Essien, who have both been sidelined due to injury.

Brazil and Ghana have gone head to head in the past, with all three matches ending in Brazil's favour:

2007: Brazil 1-0 Ghana (Friendly)
2006: Brazil 3-0 Ghana (World Cup)
1996: Brazil 4-2 Ghana (Olympics)

TOP BET: Halftime Result: DRAW 29/20
VALUE BET: Correct Score: 0-0 10/1
Friendlies are normally famous for producing uneventful soccer, and in Brazil's matches against Paraguay and Germany, they failed to get on the board in the 1st half.  If Ghana can show some grit and determination, they could well hold the Brazilians out here for 90 minutes. If you believe there could be some goals, I'd expect both sides to get on the board, and you might be safer with the halftime-fulltime double bet on the Draw-Draw at 7/1.

VERDICT: DRAW 32/10
Brazil football is in a troubling time at the moment, and if there were a better time for Ghana to show their true colours, then tonight is that night. Ghana have experienced a good run, and the majority of their players will be used to the English football conditions. I don't expect them to upstage the Brazilians completely, but I believe that if anything, it will be a low scoring game, that could see it whittle out to a draw.

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Written by @DevinH21 for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

Prices are correct at the time of writing. Prices are subject to change.