Friday, 23 September 2011

Can Leverkusen 77/10 end Bayern's record run

Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen, Bundesliga, Sat 24th September 2011, Allianz Arena

The highlight of the fixtures this weekend has to be the clash between log leaders Bayern Munich and the runners-up from last season, Bayer Leverkusen. The Bavarians have made a powerful statement with their form at the beginning of this season and you would be hard-pressed to find anyone that can beat them at the moment.

Atletico 11/1 to do Real Madrid a favour

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid, La Liga, Saturday 24th September, Camp Nou

Let’s see if I can make it two from two this week and predict the outcome of another Barcelona match. It’s seems that the draw is the safe bet with them nowadays but it would be reckless and naive not to look at the facts first and construct an educated opinion. This weekend they face a new look Atletico Madrid team who have made a whirlwind start to the season and must be considered a threat to the Catalan giants.

Les Bleus (15/2) To Spoil McCaw Party

New Zealand vs France, RWC 2011, Sat 24th September (10:30 CAT), Eden Park

By far the most anticipated match of the Rugby World Cup 2011, based purely on the voodoo that surrounds this encounter, sees the All Blacks take on the French at Eden Park on Saturday. France hold the title as New Zealand's bogey side after knocking them out of the 99' and 07' World Cups. They are also the last team to beat the All Blacks in Auckland, with victory in 1994. This will be the first and only test for these sides in Group A, with Canada, Tonga and Japan offering very little resistance thus far.

Will Richie McCaw be the man leading|
 the Haka in his centenary test?
To Win (80 Min)
New Zealand 1/14
France 15/2
Draw 33/1

Handicap
New Zealand (-18.5)
France (+18.5)

NEW ZEALAND

RWC 2011 Results:
New Zealand 41-10 Tonga
New Zealand 83-7 Japan

The All Blacks are well aware of how France lift themselves in these RWC matches, and have chosen form over experience by leaving Mils Muiliania out for Israel Dagg. Huge relief came for New Zealand fans with the news that Dan Carter is back from injury, and will start ahead of an unimpressive Colin Slade. Richie McCaw will become the first All Black to reach 100 test matches when he runs out tomorrow, and word on the street is that he even may be leading the Haka. He comes up against the loose forward combination of Julien Bonnaire and French skipper Thierry Dusautoir, a challenge that the three time IRB player of the year should be equal too.

New Zealand Starting XV:
15-Israel Dagg, 14-Cory Jane, 13-Conrad Smith, 12-Ma'a Nonu, 11-Richard Kahui, 10-Daniel Carter, 9-Piri Weepu, 8-Adam Thomson, 7-Richie McCaw (captain) , 6-Jerome Kaino, 5-Sam Whitelock, 4-Brad Thorn, 3-Owen Franks, 2-Keven Mealamu, 1-Tony Woodcock

Replacements:
16-Andrew Hore, 17-Ben Franks, 18-Ali Williams, 19-Anthony Boric, 20-Andy Ellis, 21-Colin Slade, 22-Sonny Bill Williams

All eyes on Parra for his first start at 10
FRANCE

RWC 2011 Results:

France 47-21 Japan
France 46-19 Canada

France have not been as impressive as they were in past RWC tournaments, and were in trouble against Japan at one stage with the score sitting at 25-21. They did however managed to get away from the Japanese later into the 2nd half, but French coach Marc Lievermont knows they won't get it as easy against the All Blacks. Lievermont believes possession will be key if they are to prosper on Saturday, and the French flair in the back-line could be the deciding factor in the points difference. France are no stranger to beating the All Blacks in New Zealand, as they triumphed as recently as 2009 with a 22-27 victory at Dunedin. One odd move from the French is that first choice scrumhalf Morgan Parra will start at flyhalf for the first time, giving the indication that France could be starting a second string side.

France Starting XV:15-Damien Traille, 14-Vincent Clerc, 13-Aurelien Rougerie, 12-Maxime Mermoz, 11-Maxime Medard, 10-Morgan Parra, 9-Dimitri Yachvili, 8-Louis Picamoles, 7-Julien Bonnaire, 6-Thierry Dusautoir (captain), 5-Lionel Nallet, 4-Pascal Pape, 3-Luc Ducalcon, 2-Dimitri Szarzewski, 1-Jean-Baptiste Poux.

Replacements: 16-William Servat, 17-Fabien Barcella, 18-Julien Pierre, 19-Imanol Harinordoquy, 20-Francois Trinh-Duc, 21-Fabrice Estebanez, 22-Cedric Heymans.

Past RWC Results:

Carter to push his first one wide?
1987: New Zealand 29 - 9 France
1999: New Zealand 31 - 43 France
2003: New Zealand 40 - 13 France
2007: New Zealand 18 - 20 France

VALUE BETS:
1st Place Kick at Goal: UNSUCCESSFUL 19/10
Apart from the dead-eye dick that is Morne Steyn, all teams at this RWC 2011 have struggled with their place kicks, and 19/10 seems like great value for Dan Carter or Morgan Parra to push their first one wide.

Halftime-Fulltime Double: NEW ZEALAND-FRANCE 18/1
If France are to somehow upset the apple-cart here, it is likely they will make their move in the 2nd half. Their two RWC victories against the All Blacks saw them trailing at half-time, only to triumph on the 80 minute whistle. I wouldn't put a wad on it, but definitely some lose change could become decent profit.

Handicap: NEW ZEALAND (-18.5) 9/10
If one had to purely go on World Cup encounters in the Southern Hempishere, New Zealand have held on by more than 20 points in both matches (both French victories came in Northern Hemisphere conditions). With a weakened French line-up, a passionate Auckland crowd that has been anticipating this match for 4 years, and it being Richie McCaw's 100th test, I expect the All Blacks to pile a point difference of more than 19 points here.

VERDICT: NEW ZEALAND 1/14
Although contrary to the spirit of rugby, the loser from this matches stands a better chance at reaching the final of RWC 2011. With the runner-up from Group A likely to play England, and then Ireland or Wales - while the winner has stronger Southern Hemisphere competition in Argentina, and either South Africa or Australia. It would be ignorant to believe this has not influenced the French team selection, but regardless of which team walks onto the park on Saturday, this full strength All Black side should take this game with ease.

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Prices are correct at the time of writing. Prices are subject to change.

Can WP 19/20 overcome injuries and halt Cheetahs

Western Province vs FS Cheetahs, Absa Currie Cup, Saturday 24th September, Newlands

An injury ravaged Western Province play host to the Free State Cheetahs this weekend at Newlands in what should be a tight affair. Just one look at the handicap and you can see how close this match is expected to be. Both teams currently sit in the semi-final spots, but with just 4 rounds to go, they will be looking to build momentum going into the knockout rounds.

Saving Grace: Is Lionel Cronje the saviour WP need?
To Win (80 Min)
WP 19/20
Draw 25/1
Cheetahs 19/20

It is quite unbelievable the amount of injuries that Alistair Coetzee and his coaching staff have had to deal with this season. The injury curse struck again over the weekend and they were left counting the walking wounded on Monday after a tough clash with the Bulls. That list included 7th choice flyhalf, Isma-eel Dollie, as well as prop Steven Kitshoff. They have decided to stick Lionel Cronje in at the troublesome flyhalf position even though he was only playing a second division club match just last weekend.

The Cheetahs are a team that is finding form at just the right time of the tournament. Their demolition of the Sharks last weekend was a joy to watch (for anyone that isn’t a Sharks supporter) as they ran in a half century of points. They have unearthed a gem of a player in Johan Goosen and behind a dominant pack, and the in-form Ashley Johnson, he carved the Sharks backline to pieces. The Cheetahs have struggled away from Bloemfontein this season with only one victory coming against the lowly Leopards in their last away fixture.

Handicap
WP (-0.5) 19/20
Cheetahs (+0.5) 19/20

Past meetings at Newlands
2010 (SF) WP 31 - 7 Cheetahs
2010         WP 24 - 29 Cheetahs
2009         WP 19 - 13 Cheetahs

WP won the last meeting between these two at Newlands, a comprehensive win in the semi-finals of last year’s competition. They will be wary however, having lost the round robin match last season, as well as the match in Bloemfontein earlier this season.

TEAMS
Western Province: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14  Danie Poolman, 13  Johann Sadie, 12 Marcel Brache', 11  JJ Engelbrecht, 10 Lionel Cronje, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Nick Koster, 7 Tertius Daniller, 6 Nick Fenton-Wells, 5 De Kock Steenkamp, 4  Hilton Lobberts, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg (captain), 1 JD Moller
Substitutes:  16 Deon Fourie, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 Nizaam Carr, 19 Siya Kolisi, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Berton Klaasen, 22 Heinrich Steyl

Free State Cheetahs:
15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Rayno Benjamin, 13 Robert Ebersohn, 12 Philip Snyman, 11 Cameron Jacobs, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Ashley Johnson, 7 Boom Prinsloo, 6 Pieter Labuschagne, 5 Izak van der Westhuizen, 4 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Marcel van der Merwe.
Substitutes: 16 Hercu Liebenberg, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Francois Uys, 19 Johan Wessels, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Sias Ebersohn, 22 Andries Strauss.

VERDICT: Cheetahs 19/20

I have lived to regret going against WP already this season but after the Cheetahs comprehensive victory over the Sharks last weekend it’s hard to look past them here. WP have struggled with injuries this season and it is starting to catch up with them. This weekend may be the straw that breaks the camels back.

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Thursday, 22 September 2011

English Premier League Preview

So it’s back to the Premier League after some midweek fixtures in the Carling Cup, none of which threw up any real surprises. Only 4 Premier League sides were knocked out and all those defeats were all at the hands of another Premier League team. Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal will be looking to make up for their defeats last weekend and, looking at their fixtures, they may just have the chance to do so.

Man City are another team that will be looking to make up for dropped points last weekend when they host Everton in a fixture that wasn’t particularly good to them last season. Everton put in a consummate performance last time out to see off Wigan and will be buoyed by the fact that they have done the double over City for the last two seasons. I was as surprised as you reading that fact and, having won their only away game to date, they may be in with a chance this weekend. It is never a wise thing to bet against City though and with the quality in their squad I can’t see running matches without a victory. Something to keep in mind though is Everton are at 64/10.

What now? Arsenal seem bereft of idea's all around the park.
Arsenal fans I truly feel for you. I experienced firsthand what it feels like to be an Arsenal fan as I watched Liverpool see red and roll over at the feet of Tottenham last weekend. Arsenal fared no better, putting in two own goals as they capitulated against the mighty Blackburn Rovers. They have now conceded an amazing 14 goals in 5 matches. Their opponents this weekend, Bolton, were just as appalling, falling as they did to Norwich City. To be honest this match could go either way, depending on which side shows up on the day. Perhaps the both teams to score bet is the way to go at 15/20.

Liverpool were woeful last weekend at White Hart Lane, there’s no getting around it. Poor tactics and discipline cost them dearly as their lack of pace caught up with them. Their opponents this weekend, Wolves, were just as pitiful as they surrendered meekly at home to QPR. Liverpool will be wary of the fact that Wolves were one of only two teams to beat them last season at Anfield but will be lifted by the return of their talismanic captain Steven Gerrard midweek. I fancy Liverpool to get the job done this time around, with a little bit of style and could be some value on the (-1) handicap at 21/20.

Oh the agony! Torres' miss will haunt AVB for some time.
Chelsea can consider themselves unlucky not to have gotten something out of their trip to the champions in a match that will be remembered for Fernando Torres’ glaring miss. This week they host Swansea, who finally got off the mark in the top flight, with a 3-0 victory at home to West Brom. I have enjoyed watching Swansea this season and their willingness to pass the ball, even against tough opposition. Chelsea will be hoping to bounce back with a win in the league after their unimpressive midweek display in the cup. I don’t fancy this one to be a high scorer, with the goals under at 29/20 looking too good to pass up.

Newcastle host Blackburn this weekend as they look to gain revenge for defeat in this same fixture last season. That 2-1 win, thanks to goals from Pederson and Roberts, was the 5th successive victory by Rovers at St James Park. Blackburn manager Steve Kean had to put up with protests over his job before their 4-3 victory over Arsenal last weekend and that win may just have earned him a little more time in the hot seat. Newcastle have striker Leon Best to thank for a point at Villa last time out and the Englishman has been impressive so far this season. It would surprise me if this Blackburn side managed to continue their winning run against an unbeaten Newcastle team so the draw could be the best option here, at 24/10.

West Brom have been my biggest disappointment so far this season. With Roy Hodgson in charge I thought they could even improve on their 12th place finish last season. Yet, with 5 games played, they find themselves at the foot of the table with just a solitary win and only 3 goals scored. This weekend they host Fulham who will be kicking themselves for not putting Chelsea away midweek, even though they had them on the ropes. Manager Martin Jol would’ve been happy with their performance though in keeping only their second clean sheet of the season. These teams have been woeful at both ends of the pitch so far and maybe a 1-1 draw at 5/1 is worth a punt.

Tottenham travel to the DW Stadium this weekend on the back of their 4-0 dismantling of Liverpool last weekend thanks to standout performances from Modric and new-signing Adebayor. Wigan, on the other hand, got taught a footballing lesson by Everton and will need a big improvement if they are to stand up to the pace and movement of this Tottenham side. The two fixtures between these sides produced only one goal last season, as opposed to 13 the season before. If Harry Redknapp continues his attacking ways and starts Defoe and Adebayor upfront again it may be a long day for Wigan keeper Al-Habsi. He may even need a visit to the chiropractor after picking up balls out his own net. Tottenham all the way for me.

Can he be stopped? Rooney's goal streak has no end in sight.
Can anyone stop Man Utd? That is the question doing rounds at the moment. Well this weekend they get a stern examination in the form of a visit to the Britannia Stadium. Stoke have already held Chelsea and beaten Liverpool at home this season but the movement of this United side will be a huge test for them. They have the advantage of a smaller pitch combined with bigger players. It will be a stern test for Man Utd’s young backline, dealing with the likes of Crouch and Jones. Without a midweek game Stoke will be fresh and perhaps they can pick up a point here. I don’t expect Utd to have it their own way but they should sneak through here.

QPR were arguably the most impressive team last weekend, winning as they did 3-0 away from home. Joey Barton opened his account for his new club while Shaun Wright-Phillips was impressive down the right flank. Villa threw away another lead to draw at home to Newcastle and followed that up with a disappointing loss to struggling Bolton in the Carling Cup. QPR look a different side with their new signings and with Darren Bent struggling with a groin problem I fail to see where Villa’s goals may come from. QPR should pick up the home victory here.

The final game of the weekend is a rather low key affair as Norwich host Sunderland at Carrow Road. Sunderland finally sparked into life last weekend, tearing Stoke apart with a 4-0 victory. Norwich will be just as pleased with their result, a hard fought 2-1 win over ten-man Bolton at the Reebok Stadium. Norwich have yet to register a win at home while Sunderland have yet to do the same away from home. With only 3 goals at Carrow Road this season the goals under 2.5 bet seems solid enough otherwise a draw seems the most likely result here.

Well there you have a weekend of football and perhaps a weekend of betting and hopefully a weekend of profit. I sincerely hope my luck will change, with my punting and with my team (Liverpool if you were wondering). I’m hoping for plenty of drama and goals, much like last weekend. And that’s it for now folks, happy punting. Sala Kahle, and so long for now.

Yours Truly
Commodore Vegas

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Sea Robbers 11/10 to see off Brazilians

Orlando Pirates vs Mamelodi Sundowns, PSL, Sat 24th September, Orlando Stadium

The South African PSL is in full throttle as teams start to get to grips with the robust nature of the league. All the teams have seemed to settle now and from here on out points are vital in determining their fate throughout the season. These two heavy weights will be looking to dent each other’s title hopes.

Return of the Mac: Can Benni's return spur on The Bucs?
To Win (90 Min)
Pirates 11/10
Draw 21/10
Sundowns 23/10

Orlando Pirates have been in scintillating form, beating all those that have come their way. Confidence is high in their camp as they have already got their hands on two cups thus far beating their bitter rivals Kaizer Chiefs on 3 occasions. Pirates are well on their way to repeating their historic accomplishments as they are one short of capturing another treble season. However they were upended this weekend in the Soweto Derby as they went down 2-1 to Chiefs. It was a somewhat lack luster performance from Pirates as they never quite kicked into gear. Pirates currently sit in 6th place on the log having experienced their second defeat. Manager Julio Leal was disappointed after their weekend encounter as he felt his team lacked creativity and drive, something Pirates had not struggled with until then. On a more positive note, Pirates will welcome back Benni McCarthy after his suspension and he could prove pivotal for the retaining of their title. The Buccaneers have depth in abundance and if Julio Leal has a full squad to select from, he can field a formidable force throughout this campaign.

Mamelodi Sundowns started this season with a bang, winning their opening 3 encounters. They currently sit in 3rd spot on the log with the best goal difference in the league thus far. Their confidence took a bit of a dent this past weekend as they were outdone by the Urban Warriors 3-2. Sundowns took the lead through Lebohang Mokoena and looked like they were on their way to their fourth consecutive victory in the league. However Ajax had other ideas and snatched the victory in the dying minutes to hand Sundowns their first defeat thus far. The significance of this encounter saw the return of Clayton Daniels to his home town and boyhood club as he made the switch to The Brazilians at the close of the transfer window. It was an unfortunate debut for Daniels as he couldn’t prevent his new club from slipping to a demoralizing defeat. Manager Johan Neeskens had nothing but praise for his counterpart, complementing the Ajax manager for placing faith in his youthful squad and tipped Ajax to do well this season. There is no doubting the ability of this Sundowns squad as they have all the ingredients to be crowned champions. The key is whether they can click as a unit and whether they have the solidity at the back to reduce the number of goals conceded.

VERDICT: PIRATES 11/10
These two are in good form and will be looking to put this past week’s defeats behind them. Pirates won the last encounter between them and are tipped to outdo their title rivals once again.

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Wednesday, 21 September 2011

Jimenez 11/1 to be too hot for the field

The Austrian Open, European Tour, 22 - 25 September, Atzenbrugg

On Thursday a very mediocre field will tee off at the Diamond Country Club in Atzenbrugg. The par 72, 7 053 yard layout is known to be very tight and has water features on half the holes and island greens on two of the Par 3’s. The course is notorious for suiting the shorter players on the European Tour as the tight layout necessitates accuracy over power.

Will we be seeing another victory cigar on the 18th this weekend?
To Win Outright
Padraig Harrington 10/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 11/1
Gary Boyd  14/1
Joost Luiten  14/1
Jose Manuel Lara 20/1


Value Bets
TOM LEWIS (33/1 a win, 17/2 a place)
The young Englishman left the amateur ranks last week and will make his professional debut at the Diamond Country Club. If his name sounds familiar it’s because he became the talk of the town after his stunning 5 under par 65 in the opening round of this year’s British Open. He impressed then and I’ve been waiting to see him in action again. He looks a tempting place bet but before backing him for wins I for one would like to sit back and see how he goes for the next few weeks.

JOOST LUITEN (14/1 a win, 7/2 a place)
Luiten disappointed last week but I’m not ready to write him off just yet. He has a bit of course form as he was 17th here in 2009, but that alone is nothing to write home about. In a weak field he may see his opportunity to add a new trophy to his cabinet and he’ll be keen to grab this opportunity. I also like that he is finding a bit of form after a dismal mid-season. His tie for 6th in the KLM Open impressed and I’d like to see him take the win here. At 14/1 a win he certainly is worth a bet.

MARKUS BRIER (40/1 a win, 10/1 a place)
Markus Brier has had an average season and is currently sitting in 150th place in the Race to Dubai. Last week I was let down by Joost Luiten after backing him based on the fact that he had home ground advantage but this weekend I’m tipping Brier based on that exact fact. The difference this time around is that he has won this tournament three times before, albeit on different courses. Despite that, he does still have experience here as he has played the course 10 times before. He came in 22nd last week, five shots off 2nd place and a bit of improvement could see him find a place in the top 5 here.

TOP BET: Miguel Angel Jiminez (11/1 a win, 28/10 a place)
In a mediocre field Jiminez looks the best of the players competing this week. He won easily in Switzerland two weeks ago against stronger competition and made that his third victory of the year. There is little standing in the way of him making this his fourth, although some are of the opinion that he may take his foot of the gas a bit with the Ryder Cup so close. I personally feel that even if he plays below his best he can still bring this one home and believe that he should be favourite. The 11/1 looks a bit big and the price won’t last long so get your bets on early.

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Can USA 4/10 master the K-Club

The Solheim Cup, 23 - 25 September, Killeen Castle

The Solheim Cup, for those who don’t know (of which I’m sure there are many), is a bi-annual match play competition that takes place between the best LPGA and LET players. Basically, it is the Ryder Cup for the ladies. This year it will take place at Killeen Castle, or the K Club as it has become affectionately known. The US team are firm favourites and there are no surprises in that. They boast 7 players in the World Top 20 and have won this the last three times they’ve competed.

The USA will defend their title at the K-Club this weekend.
To Win Outright
USA 4/10
Draw 10/1
Europe 5/2

I generally stay away from odds on favourites but this USA team is going to be tough to beat. At 4/10 they look a great bet to throw into your weekend multiples. Captain Rosie Jones preparation has apparently been meticulous and she has it all down, from accommodation to beauticians. However the reason I chose to write this was not to examine the outright betting. The real value lies in the Top Team Points Scorer markets.

TOP USA POINTS SCORER – CHRISTIE KERR (5/1)
Christie Kerr is the USA’s leading qualifier. Currently ranked 3rd in the World, her experience is her main drawcard for me this weekend. She has won major championships and has career earnings of over $13 million. At 5/1 I definitely see the value here and make her my top tip for this tournament.  

TOP EUROPEAN POINTS SCORER – SOPHIE GUSTAFSON (13/2)
I’m backing Sophie Gustafson to be Top European Points Scorer based on two facts. She is the most experienced of the Europeans and has competed in 7 Solheim Cups. I always believe that in match play events experience is key and at 13/2 she has huge appeal to me. She also has winning form around the Killeen course, having won the Irish Ladies Open here last August. 

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Tuesday, 20 September 2011

Luke Donald to cap season with a cool $10 million

The Tour Championship, PGA Tour, 22 - 25 September, Atlanta

This weekend sees the PGA tour reach its climax as the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup compete for $10 million at the East Lake Country Club in Atlanta. This is a difficult one as the smaller field makes it hard to find the value. However there are definitely a few solid bets to be had this weekend.
The form man: Luke Donald will be the one to beat this weekend.

To Win Outright
Luke Donald 13/2
Adam Scott 12/1
Webb Simpson 12/1
Dustin Johnson 14/1
Jason Day 16/1

VALUE BETS
MATT KUCHAR
(18/1 a win, 9/2 a place)

Matt Kuchar has had a decent season so far, making 20/22 cuts whilst finding his place in the top 10 nine times. His second at the Barclays was the highlight of his season and proved that he can compete in pressure situations. On the tight layout at East Lake his Driving Accuracy of 64.97% and GIR of 66.88% will set him up well for a solid performance. I’m going for places here at 9/2.

GEOFF OGILVY (22/1 a win, 11/2 a place)

Geoff Ogilvy has failed to make much of an impression so far this year and I’m making this selection based purely on his performance last week. His 3rd place at the BMW Championship was impressive, and watching the relaxed manner in which he made his way around the course, convinced me that he just may be ready to claim the win he has failed to find this year. At 22/1 I feel he represents a bit of value in a highly competitive field, so I suggest you having a strike, but by no means be a big one.

Worth a punt? KJ Choi is a man for the big occasion.
KJ CHOI (22/1 a win, 11/2 a place)
The highlight of Choi’s season was his first place at the Players Championship where he was handed the victory in the playoff by David Toms. His ability to step up to the plate in big events was evident here and this big match temperament could carry him through this weekend. His course form is also impressive and he’s posted two top 10 finishes here. At 11/2 I’m going places here.


TOP BET: LUKE DONALD (13/2 a win, 16/10 a place)
Luke Donald’s form this season speaks for itself. Currently number one on the World Golf Rankings, he leads the top 10 finishes with 12 out of 17 events, sits 3rd in the Proximity to Hole rankings, leads the Scoring Average ranking and lies second in Strokes Gained Putting. On form alone he is the one to beat this weekend.

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Barca 6/10 to test Valencia's title credentials

Valencia vs Barcelona, Spanish La Liga, Wednesday 21st September, Mestalla

First plays third in what is sure to be a cracking match at the Mestalla on Wednesday evening. Valencia have made an impressive start to the season and sit atop the standings with 9 points from their 3 matches. Their opponents on Wednesday need no introduction and are coming into this match on the back of an astonishing 8-0 victory over the weekend.

Long lost lovers: Fabregas and Messi, reunited after years apart.
To Win (90 Min)
Valencia 6/1
Draw 7/2
Barcelona 6/10

Valencia never cease to amaze me. How do they do it? Year after year they seem to lose their best players and yet they continue to play Champions League football and compete at the top of the La Liga. This season was no different with Juan Mata and Joaquin following on from David Silva, David Villa and Carlos Marchena last season. Manager Unai Emery has brought in some great replacements on a tight budget and has the results to show for it. Valencia have kept three consecutive clean sheets and boast the league’s top-scorer in Roberto Soldado. With Adil Rami and Jordi Alba keeping things tight at the back and the ex-Real Madrid striker’s goal-scoring form, they may just be able to upset the proverbial applecart.

Barcelona haven’t quite projected the invincible aura that they exuded for most of last season. There have been moments of sloppiness mixed in with the moments of genius and they desperately seem to be missing their rock at the back, Gerard Pique. They have twice managed to throw away a lead to draw 2-2 and have shown definite frailties when dealing with set-pieces. On the other side of the field though, they have been quite phenomenal. In their last match they put eight goals past the opposition goalkeeper in a dazzling display of attacking football. What was quite astonishing was their possession statistic which sat at 85% for the match. Lionel Messi and Cesc Fabregas have already formed an almost telepathic bond which has helped Cesc Fabregas score as many goals as he did in the whole of last season at Arsenal in just 3 matches.

Previous meetings at the Mestalla
2011 Valencia 0 – 1 Barcelona
2009 Valencia 0 – 0 Barcelona
2009 Valencia 2 -2 Barcelona

Barcelona were lucky to come away with the 1-0 victory last season thanks to a Lionel Messi goal. Valencia had a goal wrongly ruled out for offside and they managed to keep Barcelona to their lowest possession stat of the whole season.

VERDICT: DRAW 7/2
Oh how easy it would be to go with the expected Barcelona victory but Unai Emery has built a well drilled unit that is more than capable of stifling Barcelona’s array of attacking talent. With Barcelona’s defence looking shaky with Mascherano at CB they may even snatch a goal or two. The most probable outcome being the 1-1 draw at 15/2.

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Written by @CommodoreVegas for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

Chelsea 7/20 to claim bragging rights in SW London

Chelsea vs Fulham, Carling Cup , Wednesday 21st September 2011, Stamford Bridge

Fulham make the short trip across the Thames to take on their nearest rivals at Stamford Bridge in the Carling Cup 3rd round on Wednesday night. Both teams were involved in thrilling matches over the weekend so let’s hope they carry that over and serve up a memorable tie full of goal mouth action and talking points.

On a hope and a prayer: Torres will be looking to make up for his miss.
To Win (90 Mins)
Chelsea 7/20
Draw 38/10
Fulham 78/10

It is my view that Chelsea were unfortunate not to get something out of the game at Old Trafford on Sunday. Yes, they have themselves to blame for missing numerous opportunities while their hosts finished theirs with aplomb. They were on the wrong side of two marginal offside decisions and had the match been at Stamford Bridge, they may have got the rub of the green and there could very well have been a different outcome. Andre Villas-Boas will probably use Wednesday’s tie to give the likes of Lukaku, Romeu and McEachran a run but don’t be fooled, it will still be a team brimming with talent. Coach AVB will be looking to follow in his predecessor’s footsteps by making the Carling Cup his first silverware in English football.

Fulham have endured a wretched start to the season on the domestic front. Martin Jol admits that, having started their season as far back as July, his players are already a little heavy in the legs. They have failed to win a domestic match yet, drawing their last 3 including a commendable point against big-spending Man City over the weekend. He is expected to field the same side that did the job against Man City in the hope that he can sneak an upset here and march on in the competition. He may also give new signing Bryan Ruiz a chance after he has failed to impress since his big-money move from the Spanish La Liga.

Fulham have failed to record a victory at Stamford Bridge for 32 years and all in all have a pretty wretched record in this fixture with their last win coming back in 2006. They have however scored in 8 of their last 10 visits to the Bridge so the both teams to score bet at 8/10 seems a decent option.

VERDICT: CHELSEA 7/20
With the starting line-up that AVB is likely to put up, they should have enough across the park to see off their visitors. With the risk of sounding like a stuck record the 2-1 or 3-1 correct score could be the way to go here at 13/2 and 10/1 respectively. Otherwise the ht-ft double Draw-Chelsea may be worth a look at 11/4.

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Written by @CommodoreVegas for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

Monday, 19 September 2011

Leeds vs Man Utd, Carling Cup, Tuesday 20th September 2011, Elland Road

The Battle of the Roses takes place on Tuesday night when Leeds host Man Utd in what is sure to be a great cup tie. Sure it is the Carling Cup, and yes we know it doesn’t really matter, but try telling that to these two teams. Man Utd have won this competition for 2 of the last 3 seasons and the youngsters of 2011 will want to prove their worth. Leeds coach Simon Grayson has already masterminded one memorable cup victory over the Red Devils and he’ll be looking to do it again on Tuesday.

Expect a real blood and guts performance by Leeds in this derby match.
To Win (90Min)
Leeds 5/1
Draw 32/10
Man Utd 5/10

Leeds have made an inconsistent start to the season. Consistent when you look at their home and away form separately. They currently sit in 11th place in the Championship and have failed to win any of their games on the road. Compare this with their record at Elland Road where they are unbeaten and have won 3 of their 4 matches. They certainly have a team capable of a surprise with the competitions second top scorer, Honduran Ramon Nunez, as well as the Championship’s top scorer, Ross McCormack, to call on in their search for goals.

Man Utd continued their unblemished start to the campaign on Sunday with a clinical performance against title rivals Chelsea. The team that turns out on Tuesday will be a much changed one, with fringe players and youngsters getting a run in the first team. Dimitar Berbatov should finally get his first start of the season and last season’s top scorer will be itching to prove a point to his manager. He should partner Michael Owen in attack and the likes of Darron Gibson and Fabio should also get a taste of first team action. Sir Alex Ferguson will be wary of Leeds as he knows full well what they are capable, after suffering F.A Cup defeat to them in 2010.

The last time these sides met was the aforementioned F.A Cup 3rd round fixture. They have met on 4 occasions in this competition, all of which were won by Man Utd. The last of those was in 2003 when Diego Forlan, Eric Djemba Djemba and David Bellion gave them a 3-2 victory after extra time.

VERDICT: MAN UTD 5/10
Oh how I would love to say that an upset may be on the cards here. I could speak about the atmosphere at Elland Road and how Leeds won’t give an inch. That of course would be true but it shouldn’t have much of an impact on the outcome. Man Utd should put out a team that will include Michael Owen, Dimitar Berbatov and the evergreen Ryan Giggs and they should claim victory here. The most likely outcome is 2-1 or 3-1, available at 7/1 and 10/1 respectively.

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Written by @CommodoreVegas for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!