The three months of KZN Champion's season is basically about two races; the first Africa's most prestigious race, the Vodacom Durban July and the other the marathon for stayers, the Gold Cup. On the final day of last season, Clairwood based conditioner, Sean Tarry, teamed up with the accomplished Gavin Lerena to win the Gold Cup over 3200m. Now in the big one, the 2012 Vodacom Durban July, the pair combine with the son of Black Minnaloushe, GOLD ONYX, and gets the nod to land a memorable double.
eMeM is the back page tipster for the Winning Form. These are his thoughts on his top five selections for the 2012 Durban July:
Gold Onyx (16/1)
GOLD ONYX obviously has great taste as he loves Durban and in particular Greyville, where he has notched up 50% of his six career wins, including Grade 1 success as a juvenile. He was beaten just over a length in the Daily News 2000 last year.
He has never shaped in Gauteng, winning just once in eight outings. He returned to our shores in March and won three of his last six starts.
He moved up menacingly before feeling the effects of a sixteen week layoff and stayed on for third in the Grade 3 King’s Cup over a mile on this course. He conceded chunks of weight in the Easter Handicap next time out, and only failed by a short head to reel in a game frontrunner on his home track at Clairwood.
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| Gold Onyx |
His next outing was way below-par and his jockey later admitted that he may have moved too soon on him. He only possesses a short, but very effective, turn of foot.
His trainer felt hard done by when his charge didn’t make the grade to compete in last year’s race and it seemed that lightning was about to strike twice in the same place after his disappointing Betting World 1900 run.
However, as the saying goes, “cometh the hour, cometh the man”, this time it was time for ‘superman’ and Anton Marcus didn’t disappoint. He rode a brilliant race on the Tarry inmate, who turned his entire season around when he produced an electrifying late burst to beat his stablemate Buy And Sell going away in the Grade 3 Cup Trial over 1800m at Clairwood, a race which is always a good pointer to the July. That victory alone booked him his ticket into this year’s race.
Whilst Marcus is contractually bound on another runner, Sean Tarry has found a perfect replacement in Gavin Lerena (has ridden Gold Onyx twice before), who is enjoying his best season since becoming a fully-fledged jockey, and is currently in second place, only four winners adrift of Marcus in the Championship standings.
Gold Onyx had last year’s third place finisher, ENGLISH GARDEN just over two lengths behind him in the Cup Trial and although he is now 2.5kgs worse off with the latter, I was very impressed with that last effort and expect him to hold the form, especially on his favourite track.
After all that, I do have one reservation about him which is something that is beyond even his trainer’s control, and that’s the fact that he has never shaped in soft conditions. Well, we can join the sponsors, Vodacom, in their prayer for magnificent rain-free weather in the week building-up to the big day.
Vettel (9/1)
Speaking of Anton Marcus, last season’s champion jockey is obliged to ride the Mike de Kock runner, VETTEL, for his boss Markus Jooste. Vettel took three runs to shed his maiden but did so in fine style, with Marcus up, over 1950m in soft conditions at Scottsville in December.
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| Vettel |
However, he quickly put that run behind him as he again made light work of older rivals, this time in a Clairwood feature over 2500m. He was surprisingly entered to contest the Daily News 2000 in his next outing and showed his class, albeit being soundly beaten into second by ruling July favourite, JACKSON.
There’s more to that run than meets the eye. He was never pushed hard when setting the pace and clearly wasn’t fully tuned-up for the outing, so as is usually the case with his trainer, he leaves plenty in reserve with his charges for the major occasions. He is now 3.5kgs better off with his conqueror, whose trainer made no secret of the fact that the Daily News 2000 was his main mission.
Vettel has no issues about taking up the running and is arguably the fittest runner in this race.
English Garden (11/1)
ENGLISH GARDEN went horribly wrong after his fantastic third in last year’s race, beaten just two lengths by Igugu as he bled in the Cape, and had to sit out a compulsory three month suspension. His trainer then took him back to Gauteng where he performed admirably last season, and he showed a marked improvement in his form, despite not making the frame from two outings.
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| English Garden |
His last run though confirmed his well-being.
He raced well off the pace in the Cup Trial at Clairwood and despite hanging, still ran on very well late to finish just over two lengths behind Gold Onyx. He had one run in the province before going into last year’s race but has arguably had a better preparation this time around.
The son of Camden Park has shown a definite affinity for this course and is a major contender. It still remains to be seen if his jockey can make the carded weight of 56.5kgs.
Jackson (18/10)
JACKSON is one of a few runners in this year’s race that aims to make history and win this race which his sire won. The son of the 2003 winner, Dynasty, is top class and has moved through the ranks with consummate ease.
His record of five wins from seven outings speaks volumes of his ability and he announced his arrival with an impressive victory in the Politician Stakes on Queen’s Plate Day at Kenilworth. He loved the step-up in distance as he drew away from the brilliant Variety Club in the Derby over ten furlongs, again at Kenilworth.
He then got the customary three month break before arriving in KZN where he was 2nd best behind Variety Club in the Guineas over a mile on this course. His last run accomplished his trainer’s goal for the winter season as he cruised in by just under four lengths in the Daily News 2000.
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| Jackson |
Needless to say, I expect the De Kock runner to reverse the form of their last meeting.
Another huge concern for me with regards to Jackson is that his jockey has only ever ridden in this race once before. Of course, that was last year aboard CASTLETHORPE who unfortunately suffered a bump shortly after the start and hit the rail. Admittedly, that was no fault of his very capable jockey but this is always a rough race and he won’t have things all his own way.
Tales of Bravery (50/1)
My fifth selection for the race is the Vaughan Marshall trained TALES OF BRAVERY, who races in the colours of the late stalwart of the industry, Mr Roy Eckstein.
Three times July winning jockey Felix Coetzee climbs aboard him and he started the gelding’s career when helping him to shed his maiden at the third attempt, a few seasons ago.
The son of Kahal has come a long way since, winning the Winter Classic as a three-year old, the Matchem Stakes, a few months later and then finished runner-up in last year’s Queen’s Plate behind the super filly Mother Russia.
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| Tales of Bravery |
He captured everyone’s attention with an impressive turn of foot to win the Drill Hall Stakes on his winter season debut before perhaps just still needing his last outing when fourth in the Rising Sun Gold Challenge.
Still, he has had a decent preparation and quickens really well, which is always a major plus on this short run-in. Admittedly, he has shown his best form up to nine furlongs, but I don’t envisage a fast run race and that could certainly play into his hands.
He is clearly a quartet inclusion, even under his big mass of 59.5kgs.
Rest of the Field
Chesalon (15/1) and Castlethorpe (50/1)
Trainer Mike Bass, other than English Garden, has a further two strings to his bow in the form of CHESALON and CASTLETHORPE, both of whom have had impressive preparations.
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| Chesalon in the shocking pink |
He wasn’t disgraced when runner-up behind Tales Of Bravery in the Drill Hall Stakes following a 17 weeks layoff and then confirmed his well-being when close-up behind BEACH BEAUTY in the Greyville 1900. He meets his conqueror on 1.5kgs better terms and should be cherry-ripe.
He is sure to be suited by the extra distance but I have a few concerns.
The first is that Lloyd has never ridden him in a race and more importantly, he needs a solid pace to be at his level best. There isn’t much doubt that he will be running on, but it may be a little too late.
His stable companion stayed on well for second in the Rising Sun Gold Challenge last time but his best chance of winning this race may have gone when he suffered terrible interference shortly after the start in last year’s race.
He shoulders 59kgs this time as opposed to the 53kgs of last year.
Eton Square (28/1)
Another trainer that could have a trio of entrants is the locally based, Gavin van Zyl, who saddled the fourth placed runner in last year’s race. ETON SQUARE is by some distance the pick of his trio, despite him having only raced four times.
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| Eton Square |
After easily winning his maiden, he ran on strongly for second in a competitive pinnacle plate over a mile but the best was still to come. He showed great determination to come back and beat Golden Crest in the Grade 3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m at Turffontein, four weeks ago. That run has booked him his passage into this race where he is bound to love every bit of the extra distance.
The few obvious reservations are that he makes his track debut and will also be partnered by Glen Hatt for the first time. However, it hasn’t stopped him before as this is the fifth different jockey to climb aboard him in as many outings.
Admittedly, he is 1.5kgs under sufferance with Vettel and a further 3.5kgs out with Jackson, but he has plenty of scope and could still be ahead of the handicapper.
Having said all that, it is imperative that he gets a good draw.
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| Ilha Bela |
ILHA BELA, was for so long the pick of many but she cast major doubts about her ability to handle this tight track when she was trounced by her frontrunning stable companion Viva Maria over ten furlongs last time.
For me, she is the best three-year old filly around and was slightly unlucky not to have captured the Triple Tiara in Gauteng, failing only by a short head and a neck in the Guineas and Classic, respectively.
I have no concerns about her taking on the boys for the first time but I have noticed in her formline that her draw generally dictates her placement. As she has gotten older she lacks the early pace to overcome a wide draw and that was very apparent in her last outing. In other words, she can very well race handy as she showed in the Guineas but I am afraid that her only hope in this line-up is with a good draw.
She will be ridden by Anthony Delpech who also teamed up with Mike de Kock to win the last two runnings of this race.
Solo Traveller (33/1) and Gorongosa (13/1)
The De Kock yard have a further two entrants in the form of SOLO TRAVELLER who was reportedly not striding out in his last start and has not won for over a year. He made eye-catching late progress for fourth in the Betting World 1900 in his penultimate outing but there are still concerns about whether he will be as effective over this trip.
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| Gorongosa |
Top Seller (40/1)
TOP SELLER is the second Vaughan Marshall runner in this race and the major concern for me is that he has only run three times in fourteen months. Still, he came back with a vengeance and was only outrun late by Gold Onyx in his penultimate outing and was a short head behind the same rival, despite being disappointing in the Betting World 1900, last time out.
He meets the top rating on 2.5kgs better terms and will have no issues if the race is void of a decent gallop as he generally races handy.
Pomodoro (28/1) and Royal Bencher (55/1)
POMODORO is the stable companion to my first selection and will be partnered by Piere Strydom, thereby, ensuring lots of support for the runner whose name means ‘tomato’ in Italian.
The Gauteng Derby dead-heater should have finished much closer in his last outing in the Daily News 2000 but for being carried out when he was about to make his run. He is now 2kgs better off with Jackson for the defeat, but is 1.5kgs worse off with Vettel.
His trainer did point out prior to the race that it would be an experimental run to see how he handles the track. Still, the manner in which he races leads me to believe that he will have his work cut-out on this tight course, even with Strydom up.
His fellow dead-heater of the Derby, ROYAL BENCHER had excuses for his poor last run and that outing is best ignored. He too, was underprepared on that occasion but quite significantly races right up with the pace and I wouldn’t be surprised with a much improved performance from the son of 2004 winner Greys Inn.
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| Pierre Jourdan |
Of the balance of the field, only PIERRE JOURDAN and BEACH BEAUTY make any appeal.
The former had an eye-catching prep run in the Rising Sun Gold Challenge and was runner-up in last year’s running of this race. However, he may be one run short of his best and I am expecting the big mass of 60kgs to find him out.
The latter hasn’t put a foot wrong on this course, having recorded three wins and a three parts of a length second from four outings here. She was an impressive winner of the Betting World 1900 last time but shoulders a massive weight of 58kgs for a filly and has shown to be vulnerable in races that are void of a true gallop.
Polar Bound (45/1), Sage Throne (20/1), Whiteline Fever (22/1) and Smanjemange (66/1)
That leaves us with a quartet of no-hopers in my opinion. All of POLAR BOUND (held safely on his last two outings), SAGE THRONE (classy stayer, trip will be too short for him on this course), WHITELINE FEVER (possibly most effective over shorter) and SMANJEMANJE (never shaped outside Gauteng).
Verdict
In conclusion, I am expecting Anton Marcus to take the super fit Vettel to the front where he will set a fair tempo but will be closely monitored by all of Royal Bencher, Whiteline Fever, Top Seller and Smanjemanje. If our prayers of good track conditions are answered, then Gavin Lerena will turn into the straight in midfield and only produce GOLD ONYX inside the final furlong to win going away from the free running Vettel, thereby giving trainer Sean Tarry and Gavin Lerena his first July winner. English Garden will be doing his best work late for third whilst Jackson and Tales Of Bravery will fight out the fourth placing. It's the stuff dreams are made of!
eMeM’s SELECTIONS:
1) Gold Onyx
2) Vettel
3) English Garden
4) Jackson
5) Tales Of Bravery
More Great Durban July Posts:
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