Tuesday, 10 July 2012

West Indies vs New Zealand – 3rd ODI Preview


West Indies vs New Zealand | 11 July | St Kitts | 15:20 

Although as a lover of the game I have always appreciated the titanic force that is Chris Gayle, my doubts always lay in his inability to have any gear other than the sixth. These doubts were only heightened by what looked like an apparent laziness. I never agreed with his axing from the team, but sometimes I did wonder whether he was more trouble than he was worth. He has returned with a far better temperament and is now able to time his breakneck innings’ to perfection, without a hint of indifference. As New Zealand have found out the hard way, Chris Gayle is now the most frightening batsman in limited overs cricket. And the Black Caps can’t find a way to get him out.

The second ODI was once again all about the West Indies and their game-changing opening batsman. The West Indies batted first and amassed 315 runs for the loss of 5 wickets as both Chris Gayle and fellow Jamaican Marlon Samuels went to ODI centuries. Batting together for the first time in five years, their contrasting styles metred the West Indian innings perfectly as Gayle cleared the rope with regularity and Samuels knocked around the singles and kept the scoreboard ticking. New Zealand bowled well at the death to subdue the West Indian onslaught, as at one stage, the total looked on course for 350.

Nevertheless, it was still always going to be too much for an inexperienced Black Cap batting line-up. Although their chase got off to a reasonable start, the two settled batsmen Guptill and Williamson failed to pull off the big hits when they were needed as the run rate began to inflate. Watling joined Williamson and attempted to revive the innings, but it was already too late. Good news for the New Zealanders is that Watling’s 72 not out improved on his highest ODI total for the second game in a row, and the keeper looks to be going from strength to strength. However, New Zealand finished 55 runs short of the total, and will need bigger scores from their top five if they are to turn this series around.

To Win:
West Indies 2/7
Tie 30/1
New Zealand 11/4

West Indies
After receiving a hiding at the hands of the English, the West Indians have turned their fortunes around in a display of complete dominance over the touring New Zealand side. Although the Black Caps are a far cry from the English, they are no slouches and the West Indians have done well to secure their victories. Their superiority has come largely off the middle of the bat, Chris Gayle integral with match-winning innings in all four contests, as well as runs from Dwayne Smith and Marlon Samuels in support. With Pollard and Dwayne Bravo rounding up the middle-order, at limited overs level, the West Indies are now a dangerous prospect.

Sunil Narine has been impressive, something he most certainly was not against the English. Miserly in the first ODI, he went for a few more runs in the second, but managed to pick up two wickets in each. Russell and Rampaul have also picked up wickets for the seamers, which bodes well for the West Indians on slow pitches where spin can dominate. However, it must be mentioned that the New Zealand batting line-up is significantly weakened, and with a bit more structure, could make the West Indians toil if things come together. Having said that, it doesn’t look likely that they will.

New Zealand
The inexperienced Black Caps are getting a baptism of fire at the hands of the West Indians, and none seem capable of taking the bull by the horns and putting big runs on the board. It has already been identified that McCullum’s rest period has left a huge hole in the batting line-up, but it’s no use crying over spilt milk. The big blow came with the injury of Ross Taylor in Florida, and without the captain and most talented batsman, New Zealand look as flat as the wicket in Colombo. Williamson and Guptill looked improved, and Watling has hit some nice form, but none look like putting up that all important century to take the game away from the hosts.

New Zealand’s bowling has lacked penetration and aggression, with Gayle looking as though it is a simple matter of choice of which balls to dispatch over the boundary rope. Tim Southee picked up three in the second ODI, and this will please the camp as he has struggled to find his feet in recent engagements. Otherwise the bowling has also been hugely expensive and the spin options haven’t worked, something that is integral on West Indian wickets. The wickets should suit Nathan McCullum’s style of turn perfectly; however he has yet to look a threat. It’s difficult to see where New Zealand’s saving grace lies, and the only conclusion is that it is currently not there at all.

Venue
Warner Park on the island of St Kitts will play host to the remainder of the ODI series, and New Zealand will be hoping the island brings them luck. However, New Zealand have never played an ODI at the ground, so it will be yet another new experience for this inexperienced lot. The weather looks clear for Wednesday, which is always a positive, as no punter is a fan of rain interruptions in one-day games.

BEST: Top New Zealand Batsman, Kane Williamson 5/1
I’ve never been much of a fan of Kane Williamson at ODI level. He is definitely a batsman full of promise, but seems to lose his way when the going gets tough. He played well in the last ODI and as stand-in captain at such a tender age, has taken the responsibility well. In a fragile batting line-up with an out-of-form Guptill, Williamson looks a nice bet at 5/1. Cover with an 18/10 shot on Chris Gayle for the Windies, and you may have a tidy sum at the end of the day.

VERDICT: West Indies 2/7
The West Indies have looked well and truly superior and I don’t see this changing anytime soon. Taylor’s injury status is still unknown, but even his addition won’t be able to swing the pendulum back the other way. Put your money on the Windies and reap the rewards.

Written by @IAMaverickWhite for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

Think we've got it wrong? Well leave your comments below and tell us how you think this one is going to play out.

13 comments:

  1. Putting my money on the Windies!

    ReplyDelete
  2. And you will reap the rewards.

    ReplyDelete
  3. it will be a cracker no doubt. Windies for the win, although i look forward to the Kiwi's putting up a decent fight

    ReplyDelete
  4. Go Windies!!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. This should be the perfect series for Guptil to get some form back. Gayle and the Windies attack have given him a chance though. I'm backing a Guptil turn around extravaganza..

    ReplyDelete
  6. Don't see the Black Caps putting up a decent fight unless McCullum miraculously overcomes jet lag and adds something to the batting order.

    Although Guptill showed a start in the 2nd ODI, i think he will be undone by Sunil Narine on the turning St Kitts wicket. Guptill still dodgy against better spinners.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Very good analogy. I think you're absolutely right that the Windies will walk this one, although it will still be a good game to watch. I don't think there's much value in the outright price but your pick of top batsman for New Zealand looks like a good punt. Who would be your outside chance for Windies top batsman?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Any game with the Gayle, Pollard, Smith and Bravo should be full of fireworks. West Indies will always remain an immensely watchable team.

    Not really an outside chance, but with the form he is in, Dwayne Smith looks tasty at 4/1. If Gayle falls early, which is still a chance no matter what form he is in, Dwayne Bravo and Kieron Pollard both look good at 7s and 9s respectively.

    Nathan McCullum has been mouthing off saying the New Zealand bowlers have a plan for Gayle, but considering they've taken 6 wickets in two matches, it sounds like hot air to me.

    ReplyDelete
  9. 'Lacked penetration and aggression'? Now how am I supposed to stay serious here?

    ReplyDelete
  10. I fancy a bit of the New Zealanders at 27-10, I fancy they might drift out some more and you will be able to grab the 3-1 later in the day.
    A lovely article from a lovely yong man who loves his crigget.

    ReplyDelete
  11. @Cayleigh - Could it be a possible reference to you??? :)

    @Ali Bacher - Good luck with catching the New Zealand bet, they might drift out to 3/1, but it seems more likely that they'll drift out of the Caribbean without a win.
    Thanks for the compliment...and thanks for letting me live with your love-child.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Great review. Would love to see NZ pull one back, but at the moment the Windies egos are as big as their hitting.

    ReplyDelete
  13. New Zealand are full of holes. There's no saying they can't, they've always been a surprise package, but I battle to see them finding enough here.

    ReplyDelete