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Super Rugby Round 12 Preview

Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

After yet another upset filled round of Super Rugby last week, the Hurricanes usurp the top spot in the New Zealand conference from the Chiefs after the defending champions suffered a telling 41-23 shock defeat to the Brumbies. That impressive victory for the Brumbies has them closing in on the table-topping Sharks, who seem to be coming unstuck at the worst possible time. Jake White’s side suffered an unusual 18-34 home loss to the Highlanders last week, not exactly the most effective confidence booster ahead of their Australasian adventures that begin with a game against the Rebels on Friday.

Blues vs Reds | Friday 02 May | Eden Park | 09:35
The ever improving Blues look to defend their undefeated home record this year by taking down the underperforming Reds at Eden Park.

To Win (80mins)
Blues 4/10
Reds 22/10
Draw 28/1

Handicaps
Blues (-6.5) 9/10
Reds (+6.5) 9/10

The Reds haven’t tasted victory since their Round 7 win over the Stormers at the end of March, and last weekend suffered a telling 14-point hiding at the hands of the Hurricanes. Hopefully Quade Cooper can pull one out the bag for his ailing side as he runs out for his 100th Super Rugby cap this weekend. Four changes to the bottom placed Aussie side, with Greg Holmes and Liam Gill coming into the forward pack while Rod Davies and Anthony Fainga’a return to the backline. The Blues have been an unpredictable bunch this season, but have proven a formidable opponent at Eden Park all season. Coach Sir John Kirwan has named only one change to the side that saw off the Waratahs last week with Brendan O’Connor starting at openside flanker as skipper Luke Braid sits out with a shoulder injury.

VERDICT: Blues (-6.5) 9/10
Both of these sides have proved a difficult pick this season, but the Blues at home seem to be the safer bet.

Rebels vs Sharks | Friday 02 May | AAMI Park | 11:40
A few weeks ago we may have prematurely written off the Rebels before kick off in their clash with the competition’s frontrunners, but after last weekend’s dismal performance at Kings Park, all bets are off.

To Win (80mins)
Rebels 15/10
Sharks 11/20
Draw 25/1

Handicaps
Rebels (+3.5) 9/10
Sharks (-3.5) 9/10

The Rebels have only managed three wins from their nine outings so far this season, but come off a bye in Round 11 and meet the Sharks at probably their most vulnerable time. Wallaby scrumhalf Luke Burgess has been named to start this week, replacing Nic Stirzaker who has had the starting jersey for the last five weeks. In the only other change to the side that took down the Force two weeks back, Cruze Ah-Nau starts in the front row in place of the injured Toby Smith. The Sharks kick off their four week tour of the Antipodes on the back of their 34-18 loss to the Highlanders, with Frans Steyn set to start at pivot in Melbourne. A new midfield combo of Heimar Williams and Paul Jordaan runs out this week and out wide Odwa Ndungane returns to the wing. Jean Deysel and Bismarck du Plessis return to beef up the forwards this week.

VERDICT: Sharks (-3.5) 9/10
One good thing to come from last week’s upset at Kings Park is that it undervalues the Sharks for this week’s game, for a mere -3.5 handicap makes this one a no-brainer.

Crusaders vs Brumbies | Saturday 03 May | AMI Stadium | 06:35
Both these sides seem to be at the top of their game at the moment, and both took down the defending champions in their last outings.

To Win (80mins)
Crusaders 5/10
Brumbies 7/4
Draw 25/1

Handicaps
Crusaders (-5.5) 9/10
Brumbies (+5.5) 9/10

Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder has named five changes to the side that took down the Chiefs two weeks back, with the most notable of those being the return of Richie McCaw. He joins Luke Whitelock and Matt Todd in the loose forwards. Ben Funnell and Andy Ellis also return as part of their rotation policy with Corey Flynn and Willi Heinz. The Brumbies ran in an impressive five tries last weekend against the Chiefs in Canberra, with doubles from both Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani. The Brumbies are now within a point of the table-topping Sharks as they make the trip to Christchurch, but the Crusaders will be rejuvenated after their bye in Round 11.

VERDICT: Crusaders (-5.5) 9/10
This is going to be a fiercely contested clash, but I’m going to back the fresher side with the home ground advantage to clear the handicap.

Chiefs vs Lions | Saturday 03 May | Waikato Stadium | 09:35
The Chiefs have only one victory to show from their last six outings, so will welcome the prospect of an easy home win over the hapless Lions.

To Win (80mins)
Chiefs 1/10
Lions 13/2
Draw 35/1

Handicaps
Chiefs (-16.5) 9/10
Lions (+16.5) 9/10

Chiefs coach Dave Rennie has really rung in the changes this week with a massive fourteen switches to the side that went down to the Brumbies last week, nine of those to the starting XV. The Chiefs have moved down to second on the Kiwi conference standings, but are just a point behind the Hurricanes who have to face the Waratahs away this week, so the Chiefs have a good opportunity of reclaiming their spot up front. The Lions have lost their last three clashes dropping down to eleventh on the overall standings. Coach Johan Ackermann has decided to give Elton Jantjies another chance at pivot with Marnitz Boshoff named on the bench. Warren Whitely returns from injury and reclaims the captaincy.

VERDICT: Lions (+16.5) 9/10
The Chiefs will be looking for a big victory to show their season is far from done, but with the inconsistency in team selection, and the absence of playmaker Aaron Cruden, I am not so convinced they’ll clear the 16.5 handicap.

Waratahs vs Hurricanes| Saturday 03 May | Allianz Stadium | 11:40
In such an evenly weighted competition, with both sides sitting with five wins from nine clashes this season, this match may turn out to be a classic case of punter’s regret.


To Win (80mins)
Waratahs 5/10
Hurricanes 7/4
Draw 25/1

Handicaps
Waratahs (-4.5) 9/10
Hurricanes (+4.5) 9/10

Aggressive Waratahs coach Michael Cheika has made several changes to the side that went down to the Blues last weekend. Matt Carraro, Paddy Ryan and eighthman Wycliff Palu return to the run on side this week as their team aims to keep their unbeaten home record alive by taking down the in-form Hurricanes, who they last beat in 2010. The ‘Canes have now gone undefeated in their last four clashes, the longest unbeaten run still running in the competition at the moment. Coach Mark Hammett has decided to keep from tinkering with this in form squad, naming an unchanged run on side from the one that took down the Reds in Wellington last week.

VERDICT: Hurricanes 7/4
The Waratahs will be tough at home, but if there is any side that is capable of pulling it off at the moment it must be the Hurricanes, and with a generous 7/4 without a handicap I am going to go with the ‘Canes purely for the value.

Stormers vs Highlanders | Saturday 03 May | Newlands | 15:00
The Stormers will be optimistically looking for their third victory of the season against the side that secured a conclusive 34-18 victory over the table-topping Sharks last week.

To Win (80mins)
Stormers 6/10
Highlanders 29/20
Draw 25/1

Handicaps
Stormers (-3.5) 9/10
Highlanders (+3.5) 9/10

Stormers coach Allister Coetzee has made four changes to the side that suffered an away loss to the Cheetahs last weekend. In the forwards Scarra Ntubeni runs on hooker in place of Deon Fourie and Schalk Burger replaces Siya Kolisi on the flank, while in the backline pivot Kurt Coleman claims his first start of the season. Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph has decided against tinkering too much with his side this week. Patrick Osborne and Craig Millar returned home with injuries picked up during last week’s clash with the Sharks. Up front Josh Bekhuis replaces Jarrad Hoeata and John Hardie comes in for Shane Christie. Chris King earns his 100th Super Rugby cap for the Highlanders this week.

VERDICT: Highlanders 29/20
They beat the Sharks conclusively last weekend, while the Stormers were outplayed by the beleaguered Cheetahs. They say if it seems too good to be true it probably is, but I can’t let this 29/20 for an outright win pass me by.

Bulls vs Cheetahs | Saturday 03 May | Loftus Versfeld | 17:05
The final game of the weekend looks set to be the most boring, although the Cheetahs seemed find the ferocious form we last witnessed during their dream 2013 season.

To Win (80mins)
Bulls 9/20
Cheetahs 19/10
Draw 25/1

Handicaps
Bulls (-5.5) 9/10
Cheetahs (+5.5) 9/10

In an odd move, Bulls coach Frans Ludeke has opted for Junior World Cup winning Handre Pollard ahead of Jacques-Louis Potgieter at flyhalf, giving the youngster his first start of the season. Fellow Junior Springbok William Small-Smith replaces JJ Engelbrecht, who falls to the bench. Up front, Callie Visagie returns to hooker in place of Bongi Mbonambi. Cheetahs coach Naka Drotske will be pleased with the return of Springbok playmaker Johan Goosen, but has opted for a cautious approach to the injury prone pivot, naming him on the bench for the Loftus showdown. Goosen is the only change to the 23-man squad that brushed aside the Stormers in Bloemfontein last week in their 35-22 victory.


VERDICT: Bulls (-5.5) 9/10
The Bulls are yet to lose a game at home this season, a good thing considering they are yet to win a game away from their fortress. The Cheetahs seem to be improving, but the Bulls at home should prove too much nonetheless.

Think we’ve got it wrong? Well leave your comments below and tell us how you think this is going to play out.

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