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Super Rugby Round 19 Preview

Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

In true Super Rugby fashion, the final week of the regular season arrives with the top six far from decided. Nine of the fifteen sides remain in contention for a spot, but it will be the Hurricanes who sweat the most this round despite sitting it out. Mark Hammett’s side, currently placed fifth on the overall log, will have to sit by and watch as their future in this season’s title race is decided by the outcome of several other clashes. A tough week to make a profit with so much at stake for so many sides, the unpredictability level reaches new highs.

Blues vs Chiefs | Friday 11 July | Eden Park | 09:35
The Blues, with their 21-13 loss to the Crusaders last weekend, have all but ruled themselves out of contention for this year’s playoffs. Their visitors this week, the Chiefs, kept their third consecutive title dream alive, only just, by securing a 24-16 victory over the Hurricanes in Hamilton last Friday.

To Win (80mins)
Blues 9/10
Chiefs 9/10
Draw 25/1

The Blues have an extremely remote chance of sneaking through to the playoffs, but it requires they pull off a 38-point victory in Auckland this week while preventing the Chiefs from picking up a bonus point. Even if they do manage this phenomenal feat, their destiny will ultimately be decided by how the rest of the results in the top six pan out. And they’ll have to somehow overcome all these obstacles without the services of captain Luke Braid and All Black veteran Tony Woodcock, who both sit this one out with shoulder injuries. Chiefs coach Dave Rennie has seemingly abandoned his erratic selection methods, making just a single change to his run-on side as Bundee Aki comes in for the injured Charlie Ngatai.

VERDICT: Chiefs 9/10
The Chiefs proved just how hungry they are for a playoff spot when they arm wrestled the 24-16 victory out of the Hurricanes last week. The Blues have simply left themselves too much to do at this late stage of the competition.

Brumbies vs Force | Friday 11 July | Canberra stadium | 11:40 
The Brumbies, fresh off a bye in Round 18, return to the action this week to feature in a gruelling Aussie derby that will determine which side sneaks through to the playoffs.

To Win (80mins)
Brumbies 3/10
Force 27/10
Draw 22/1

Handicaps
Brumbies (-7.5) 9/10
Force (+7.5) 9/10

The Brumbies have left themselves a bit to do in the final week thanks to their poor form in their last few showings, managing only one solitary victory from their last four outings. Their chances will be bolstered by the return of Wallaby stars Matt Toomua and Sam Carter from injury, thrown straight back into the run on side, while veteran wing Clyde Rathbone makes a rare appearance in the starting XV. Other changes to the side sees Pat McCabe and Joe Tomane return to feature on the bench. The Force welcome back scrumhalf Alby Mathewson, but it is unlikely he will team up with regular halfback partner Sias Ebersohn. The Force will also be without Wallabies back rower Hugh McMeniman, who picked up a one week ban for kneeing last week.

VERDICT: Brumbies (-7.5) 9/10
With the two teams locked on 40 points apiece it really is a winner-takes-all clash in Canberra this week. The Brumbies are a far more experienced side when it comes to these season defining matches so I expect that they won’t fail to impress in front of their home crowd.

Bulls vs Rebels | Friday 11 June | Loftus Versfeld | 19:10 
A game so unimportant I’m surprised it is even being televised.

To Win (80mins)
Bulls 1/20 
Rebels 83/10
Draw 36/1

Handicaps
Bulls (-19.5) 9/10
Rebels (+19.5) 9/10

The Bulls failed to bother the scoreboard last week during their dismal 16-0 loss to the Stormers in Cape Town, leading to sweeping changes to the run on side for their final clash of the season. An entirely new front row featuring Morne Mellett, Bandise Maku and Marcel van der Merwe take to the field this week, with Roelof Smit providing the home side with a real fetcher for the first time this year. The dead-last on the table Rebels are unlikely to find any favours on the road in their final showing of the season, having suffered the additional blow of losing their skipper Scott Higginbotham, suspended for “repeat professional foul infringements”.

VERDICT: Bulls (-19.5) 9/10
The Bulls will be looking to make up for last weekend’s shoddy performance, and they hate disappointing their fans at home. The 19.5 handicap shouldn’t prove difficult at all against the terrible tourists.

Crusaders vs Highlanders | Saturday 12 July | AMI Stadium | 09:35 
With the top spot in the New Zealand conference up for grabs when these two meet in Christchurch this Saturday, this Kiwi derby promises to provide some of the weekend’s most exhilarating rugby.

To Win (80mins)
Crusaders 1/4
Highlanders 32/10
Draw 26/1

Handicaps
Crusaders (-8.5) 9/10
Highlanders (+8.5) 9/10

The Crusaders will be happy to have afforded Kieran Read and Dan Carter invaluable game time last week, meaning the two influential All Black stars will be all the more ready to shine this week in front of their home crowd as they attempt to lock in that coveted top spot on the Kiwi Conference. The Highlanders will be without fullback Ben Smith, who picked up a leg infection that saw him hospitalised this week. He is replaced by Trent Renata, while Hayden Parker will start at flyhalf in the only other change to the backline.

VERDICT: Crusaders (-8.5) 9/10
The Crusaders know how to pull off big margin victories in front of their home crowd. And with the top spot in their conference up for grabs you can expect the ‘Saders to be throwing everything they have at their guests, making the 8.5 handicap almost laughable.

Reds vs Waratahs| Saturday 12 July | Suncorp Stadium | 11:40 
The Waratahs removed any form of pressure this match could have presented by clinching top spot on the log for the regular season regardless of what unfolds in Queensland this week.

To Win (80mins)
Reds 5/2
Waratahs 3/10
Draw 25/1

Handicaps
Reds (+6.5) 9/10
Waratahs (-6.5) 9/10

The Reds returned to their losing ways last week with a miserable 20-30 loss to the Force. They are bound to be even more pathetic this week having lost the services of winger Dom Shipperley, who picked up a nasty ankle injury last week. The Waratahs locked in their spot atop the overall standings last week with their emphatic 44-16 victory over the Highlanders in Sydney. Without any pressure to pick up additional points in Queensland this week the Waratahs have decided to rest Israel Folau to allow him to fully recover from a minor thigh injury picked up last Sunday. He will be replaced at fullback by Cam Crawford. In the second row, coach Michael Cheika has given Will Skelton the nod ahead of Jacques Potgieter, who falls to the bench this week.

VERDICT: Waratahs (-6.5) 9/10
The Waratahs have peaked at the most opportune time this season, and with absolutely no pressure to win you can expect the table-topping visitors to be experimental on attack. Against a feeble Reds outfit that is likely to result in a resounding victory.

Lions vs Cheetahs | Saturday 12 July | Ellis Park | 17:05 
With thirteenth place taking on fourteenth place in this waste-of-prime-time-TV clash, this would be your opportunity to get the braai going.

To Win (80mins)
Lions 7/10
Cheetahs 11/10
Draw 25/1

Handicaps
Lions (-2.5) 9/10
Cheetahs (+2.5) 9/10

Despite their impressive return to the Super Rugby tournament this season, which saw them clinching a personal best of six victories in a season with a 34-17 win over the Rebels last week, the Lions will still need to do all they can at home this week to avoid adding the South African wooden spoon to their 2014 season achievements. The Cheetahs managed to stick a spanner in the works for the South African conference leaders last week by sneaking a 27-20 upset against the Sharks in Bloemfontein. Naka Drotske has rewarded his players for their late, unpatriotic surge in the competition by naming an unchanged starting XV.

VERDICT: Lions (-2.5) 9/10
The Lions have pulled off some powerful performances at home this season so despite the Cheetahs impressive showing in Bloem last week, I’m backing the home side to extend their season wins record to a commendable seven.

Stormers vs Sharks | Saturday 12 July | Newlands | 19:10
The Sharks need to shake the losing habit they’ve picked up over the past few rounds if they want to rid themselves of the chokers tag that has haunted them for years.

To Win (80mins)
Stormers 9/10
Sharks 9/10
Draw 25/1 

The Stormers are currently on a four-match winning streak, and managed to prevent the Bulls from scoring at all last week. They took the Sharks down in Durban not that long ago, and despite having no further part to play in this year’s Super Rugby competition regardless of what transpires out in the middle this Saturday, the Stormers won’t want to disappoint in front of the Newlands faithful. The Sharks will be the only South African side to qualify for the playoffs this year, but despite their secured position atop the South African conference, and therefore their place in the extended season, the Sharks will be hoping to overcome the impermeable Stormers defence to ensure they finish in the Top 2 to claim the benefit of a week off and a home semi-final.


VERDICT: Sharks 9/10
The Sharks have a tough task ahead of them with the Stormers seemingly at the top of their suffocatingly-boring game at the moment, but the lads from Durban managed to come away with the goods the last time these two met at Newlands, in last year’s Currie Cup final.

Think we’ve got it wrong? Well leave your comments below and tell us how you think this is going to play out.

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