Written by Matt Cee for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Last week we were bitterly disappointed when William McGirt handed Peter Malnati victory on the final day of the Sanderson Farms, but we still got a small payout on the Top 5 finish so we shouldn’t be too despondent. This week we’re hoping to go one better though as the PGA Tour heads to Mexico for the OHL Classic. Hosted by the El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, this Greg Norman designed layout has proven popular over the years and this time around a host of big names have chosen to compete here. That’s important as traditionally it’s been the more consistent and experienced participants who have fared well in this one so keep an eye on those who’ve been around for a while and who know the course, they seem to have the upper hand.
The course measures 6,980 yards and whilst this par 71 layout isn’t the longest you’ll find on the Tour, it is still challenging. The fairways are tight and reward accurate hitting over big drives so keep a close eye on players who rank highly in driving accuracy. A solid short iron game will also go a long way here as hitting it stiff will ensure more birdies are made. That’s going to be important on this course because although it is challenging in some respects, strategic iron play will make things a bit easier.
So who will win in Mexico this week? Let’s have a look.
To Win Outright
Matt Kuchar: 12/1
Harris English: 20/1
Jason Bohn: 20/1
Patrick Rodgers: 20/1
Russel Knox: 20/1
Chris Stroud (25/1 a win, 11/2 a place)
If you subscribe to the “horses for courses” theory then you won’t have to look much further than Chris Stroud this week. In his last four appearances in Mexico he’s managed to finish in the Top 5 on three occasions and if you think that makes him a worthwhile bet, consider his form this season. He recently finished 10th in the Frys.com against some stiff competition and prior to that he finished T2 in the Alfred Dunhill. At this price, Stroud looks a great each way bet, it’s tough to imagine him not finishing inside the Top five again.
Roberto Castro (55/1 a win, 12/1 a place)
Castro’s Top four finish last week caught my eye and he looked especially good on Sunday in what looked to be tough conditions. When I saw that he opened the tournament with a 3 over par 75, I was really impressed to see how he fought his way into the Top five. Despite that first round he looked to be playing some really consistent golf and on a course like this, which rewards consistent play, he should go close. At this price Castro looks a great each way bet.
Patton Kizzire (22/1 a win, 48/10 a place)
Patton Kizzire was awarded the Web.com Tour’s player of the season last year and he’s come out swinging on the PGA Tour, posting a Top 5 last week and finishing secondd in Las Vegas prior to that. He hardly put a foot wrong in both of those tournaments and it would be foolish to ignore him this week, especially at a time when there seem to be a number of first time winners claiming victory on the Tour. Sure, this is a course that seems to reward experience but Kizzire is playing so well that backing him is well worth the risk.
Spencer Levin (60/1 a win, 13/1 a place)
Since finishing inside the Top 10 in the Shriners, Spencer Levin has taken a break from golf and I’m hoping that he arrives in Mexico refreshed and ready to pick up where he left off. He was one of the more accurate drivers on Tour last season and currently ranks inside the Top 10 in that stat and on this layout that will go a long way in helping him finish near the top. Levin’s also done well here in the past, having narrowly lost out in a playoff in 2011. At this price Levin looks to be a great each way bet.
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