Hollywoodbets Sports Blog: UK Racing Best Bets - Saturday 28 September 2019

UK Racing Best Bets - Saturday 28 September 2019

UK Racing Best Bets

Neil Morrice walks you through the front runners for Saturday's feature races at Cambridgeshire, Newmarket and the Cheveley Park Stakes, as well as his best bets at Haydock and Chester.

Cambridgeshire Feature Race Analysis

Race Bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Class 2)


FEW Cambrideshires are won by anything that doesn't go on to contest Group races as was the case with John Gosden's Wissahickon last year. Gosden has similar claims with another 3yo in the shape of LORD NORTH who having fallen short in Listed company in the spring came back a better horse after being gelded. That manifested itself when he narrowly failed to bag a red hot heat at Ascot when the first two came clear. He can run off an unchanged mark and is probably better than he's shown so far.

Another contesting overall favouritism in this first leg of the Autumn Double is LE DON DE VIE for whom Hughie Morrison has booked Ryan Moore. The progressive profile of this three times winner from only four outings this year makes him a runner to be feared by all. He's managed to score by relatively small margins, thereby condensing the amount the assessor has put him up, while his trainer knows what it takes to win this prize having done so with Supaseus in 2009.

GOOD BIRTHDAY will have his supporters after regaining the winning thread at Beverley where he overcame a tardy start to squeeze through and win snugly in the end. Trainer Andrew Balding is looking for a first win in this coveted prize and his contender will enjoy what is inevitably a strongly run race, as he has a useful turn of foot.

Making his handicap debut after competing well in a Group race is FIFTH POSITION. Roger Varian's challenger appeared to run out of gas at the business end of a Group 3 at Goodwood over a mile, casting doubts over whether he will enjoy going further on the wide expanses of Newmarket Heath.

David Egan strikes me as a significant booking for MAJESTIC DAWN who as a horse that likes to get on with things is unlikely to meet with traffic issues. He's been acquitting himself well in the best 3yo handicaps, ran well at Royal Ascot and tuned up for this with another pleasing run when troubling the judge in a mile and a quarter handicap at the July meeting.

JAZEEL has the perfect partner for a hold-up horse in Jamie Spencer. He's held his own in good company since changing stables and scored over the course and distance last back end. He needs to leave a below-par run at York behind him, but could easily bounce back.

Of the roughies BERINGER takes the eye even though he also blew out in Jazeel's race at York. The fact that he finished third in the Lincoln mirrors the fact that he is comfortable in big fields, while the form he produced to beat Power Of Darkness here in the spring has worked out.

Prediction

1st MAJESTIC DAWN

2nd Le Don De Vie

3rd Good Birthday

4th Lord North

5th Beringer

6th Jazeel

Newmarket Feature Race Analysis
Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1)

This is rightly being billed as the best juvenile race run in the United Kingdom this season and features a fascinating clash between the unbeaten trio of EARTHLIGHT, MUMS TIPPLE and SISKIN.

Earthlight has carried all before him for owners Godolphin and trainer Andre Fabre and completed a four timer with a workmanlike rather than spectacular defeat of the filly Raffle Prize in the Prix Morny (Group 1) at Deauville. Granted the testing conditions, some of the protagonists for that race did not perform to their true level, but any horses crossing the Channel from the Fabre yard are afforded the utmost respect.

Richard Hannon's Mums Tipple produced a visually impressive display in the Sales race at York, winning by a country mile and being ridden right out to the line. That effort has made him the leading contender from the UK but he remains hard to assess. His jockey picked up a suspension for using his whip with too much frequency but Oisin Murphy takes the reins this time.

However his trainer might find it difficult to choose between him and THREAT, whose last two offerings resulted in Group 2 triumphs in the Gimcrack Stakes at York and the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. Now Pat Dobbs' mount needs to show he's just as good dropping back to a sprint distance, which shouldn't be a problem.

Siskin looks the top juvenile in Ireland. The Ger Lyons-trained colt delivered on his Naas debut in May and has gone from strength to strength. Most recently he coped with soft ground to willingly land the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh and is a tough customer who knows how to win a battle.

Aidan O'Brien fields the twin spearhead of MONARCH OF EGYPT and LOPE Y FERNANDEZ. Having won the last two renewals, there's been interest in O'Brien's late decision to saddle Ryan Moore's chosen mount Monarch Of Egypt who has twice come up short against Siskin recently. Lope Y Fernandez has chased the shadow of Pinatubo at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood but looked happier when dropped back to this distance of six furlongs last time. It was a display that showed he can handle cut in the ground.

Prediction

1st EARTHLIGHT

2nd Lope Y Fernandez

3rd Threat

4th Siskin

5th Mums Tipple

6th Monarch Of Egypt

Cheveley Park Feature Race Analysis
Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)

Last year's winner Fairyland ended up sprinting but connections of most of the 11 runners will hope their representatives have Classic pretensions.

RAFFLE PRIZE is a worthy favourite granted her glitzy profile. She landed the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, the Cherry Hinton at Newmarket and came within a neck of making all in the Group 1 Prix Morny when denied in the final strides by Earthlight. Those efforts set the standard for the others to aim at as the Mark Johnston-trained runner drops back to fillies only company.

Yorkshire stables are strongly represented as next in the market is Lowther Stakes heroine LIVING IN THE PAST, representing Karl Burke. She went all the way on the Knavesmire and would be a threat to all with a similar effort, although on her previous outing at Ascot she appeared not to relish the easy conditions.

Connections of NURSE BARBARA have stumped up £20,000 to add her into the contest and this stablemate of Middle Park-bound Siskin deserves respect. She has very good gate speed as she demonstrated when getting the better of subsequent scorer Deidra on her debut at Cork, while she was only denied in the final strides by Blissful in a 7f Listed prize at Leopardstown. Back at a sprint distance, she will be a target for the others to catch.

TROPBEAU defends a three race winning sequence in France for Andre Fabre, landing a Group 2 at Deauville last time. She's been campaigned exclusively at 7f, but shouldn't be inconvenienced stepping back to six.

Aidan O'Brien's ETOILE delivered on her debut at Naas in spite of being slightly hampered when breaking from the gate. To win a Group 3 without previous experience is a good performance in anyone's book, and she deserves respect.

Prediction

1st RAFFLE PRIZE

2nd Living In The Past

3rd Nurse Barbara

4th Tropbeau

5th Etoile

Haydock Park Best Bet

Race 4: CAME FROM THE DARK (8)
Trainer: Ed Walker  
Jockey: Luke Morris 

Course specialist CAME FROM THE DARK is two from three here and was an emphatic winner when dropping back to this five furlongs trip three weeks ago. The turn of foot he produced was something to behold, and a 10lb rise for that three and three-quarter lengths triumph might not be as harsh as it looks.

Race 7: LIGHTLY SQUEEZE (8)
Trainer: Harry Fry 
Jockey: Luke Morris 

The hooded LIGHTLY SQUEEZE looked the part when making a winning return over course and distance three weeks ago and reappears under an 8lb higher mark. A rare runner on the Flat for his trainer, he has so few miles on the clock that plenty of improvement can be anticipated.

Chester Best Bet

Race 1: STRAIT OF HORMUZ (8)
Trainer: Andrew Balding   
Jockey: David Probert

From a stable that excels with its runner on the Roodee, STRAIT OF HORMUZ is going the right way and after a near miss on Polytrack at Chelmsford can show his liking for the grass at this turning track. He showed good gate speed last time that should stand him in good stead in his attempt to get a forward early position. Given that scenario, he should prove hard to beat.

Race 6: FANNIE BY GASLIGHT (3)
Trainer: Mick Channon 
Jockey: Gerald Mosse

From the favoured rail, FANNIE BY GASLIGHT is in a good spot to post a first success of the campaign. She found the drop back to this mile and a quarter trip no issue when third to Eva Maria at Ayr last time and the cut in the ground will make this more of a test anyway. She's not quite lived up to last season's efforts by in doubt whether we've seen the best of her.

Race 7: RAVENOUS (8)
Trainer: Luke Dace 
Jockey: Tom Greatrex 

The betting forecast indicates RAVENOUS will be a big double-figure price and if that's the case he's worth backing to spring a surprise. While too keen for his own good at Salisbury last time, he might be best served to press on from his excellent draw here. He is 5lb lower than when scoring over the course and distance a year ago.

Ripon Best Bet

Race 1: LAMPANG  (1)
Trainer: Tim Easterby  
Jockey: David Allan

Connections of LAMPANG have withdrawn him from two races recently and if that's due to their fear of cut in the ground it could happen again. However, though the going was quick when he powered home on his Carlisle debut, the only way to find out if he goes on the soft is to run him on it. He's a colt with bags of potential and very well regarded by his in-form trainer.

Race 5: RITCHIE VALENS (6)
Trainer: Richard Hannon 
Jockey: Rossa Ryan

RITCHIE VALENS could be heading for the Horses In Training Sale at the end of next month but this consistent operator deserves to pick up a race or two en route, and this is a good opportunity. Things didn't quite pan out for him at Kempton last time but the balance of his form indicates he can be competitive and get into the shakeup.

Written by Neil Morrice for Hollywoodbets

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