Hollywoodbets Sports Blog: European Tour: Portugal Masters Preview

European Tour: Portugal Masters Preview

Golfer admires shot

The European Tour stays in Continental European this week for the 13th renewal of the Portugal Masters.  This event was first staged in 2007 and was won by Englishman Steve Webster. 

The European Tour 2019 | Portugal Masters
Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal
Thursday 24 October 2019 - Sunday 27 October 2019

Nicolas Colsaerts - or ‘The Dude’ as he is affectionately known on tour - was a hugely popular winner in Paris last week. The European Tour stays in Continental European this week for the 13th renewal of the Portugal Masters. This event was first staged in 2007 and was won by Englishman Steve Webster.  Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course has hosted every iteration of this event thus far, which does tend to help the art of prediction. With next week’s WGC event followed by a series of Rolex Series events, this event represents the last opportunity for many of the lowlier ranked players to secure their all-important tour-card. 

Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course was designed by the late Arnold Palmer and was opened in 2004. It actually hosted the World Cup of Golf only a year later, with Wales edging out Sweden for those who care. With generous fairways and large bentgrass greens, this exposed course has really been at the mercy of the pros for some time now. Levy won with a score of 18 under despite only completing two rounds! Lest we also forget that it was here that Oliver Fisher shot the European Tour’s maiden 59: sorry Brandon Stone. But there have been attempts to curtail scoring this year, with 2000 new trees planted and Bermuda grass implemented as green-side rough. It will be interesting to see how that affects scoring. Historically speaking this has often divulged into a putting competition, with all of the last seven champions finishing inside the top seven for putting average.

Defending champion Tom Lewis returns this week in ebullient mode after securing his PGA Tour spot towards the end of last season. It is Matt Wallace who understandably leads the markets. There is a distinct lack of star-power with this week’s event in Japan taking centre stage. Also, the big boys will be resting with an intense period leading up to Dubai. Eddie Pepperrell will be looking for some inspiration in what has been a desperately disappointing campaign. Martin Kaymer has started to hint at former glories while the likes of Adri Arnaus and Lucas Bjerregard hold a flag for the European youth brigade. 

Past Winners
2018: Tom Lewis (-22)
2017: Lucas Bjerregard (-20)
2016: Padraig Harrington (-23)
2015: Andy Sullivan (-23)
2014: Alex Levy (-18)* only 36 holes played

Outright Betting (To Win)
Matt Wallace (11/1)
Eddie Pepperell (18/1)
Martin Kaymer (18/1)
Lucas Bjerregard (20/1)
Adri Arnaus (20/1)

Value Bets

Mikko Korhonen
To Win (25/1), To Place (11/1)

Mikko Korhonen certainly makes a lot of sense this week, particularly when you look at the quality of the field. Korhonen has been a bastion of consistency in recent times, last missing a cut in June.  That means he has played nine consecutive weekends. And his recent course credentials make him an appealing option at 25/1. He has recent finishes around Dom Pedro of T13, T3 and T9. The 39 year-old Finn is just the sort of player who could thrive this week. 

Renato Paratore
To Win (125/1), To Place (25/1)

One would have expected the extremely talented Paratore to kick on following his victory in Sweden two years back. But that just hasn’t been the case, with Guido Migliozzi emerging as the de facto young Italian sensation. Since a 12th place in Switzerland his form has dipped somewhat. But he will feel buoyed by making the cut at Le Golf National last week. Paratore had missed all four previous cuts with some truly abominable scoring. Last year he was in the top six here on the first three days before a characteristically shoddy round collapsed him on Sunday. Paratore is a huge talent and could thrive in this field. Additionally, one of his biggest amateur ever wins came in Portugal five years back prior to his passage through qualifying school. 

The Man to Beat

Matt Wallace
To Win (11/1), To Place (24/10)

Matt Wallace’s course figures hardly make for the most appetizing reading. Returns of 39 and 44 don’t scream comfort. But Wallace still looks an appealing favourite at 11/1 in this field. Sure, he hasn’t won this season, but he very well could have at both the KLM Open and Italian Open. One thing I have noticed is that his on-course demeanor has deteriorated in moments of frustration.  I think that the standards he sets for himself are at times somewhat unrealistic. But there’s just a part of me that figures he could dominate this week. 

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