Hollywoodbets Sports Blog: Neil Morrice: UK Racing Best Bets - Saturday 7 November 2020

Neil Morrice: UK Racing Best Bets - Saturday 7 November 2020

UK Best Bets - Saturday 7 November 2020

Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips for Saturday's racing coming your way from the Keeneland Breeders' Cup (including video analysis), Doncaster, Aintree and Wincanton.




KEENELAND BREEDERS’ CUP 

Race 4: BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY and MARE SPRINT (Grade 1)
No2 - GAMINE
Trainer: Bob Baffert - Jockey: John Velazquez

While she might have been found vulnerable when losing her unbeaten record in the Kentucky Oaks, GAMINE can reassert earlier domination now returned to her optimum distance of seven furlongs. The Baffert favourite has started odds-on in all five career starts and from gate two her pilot has little choice but to take her to the lead, and as one of her Grade 1 triumphs happened over a mile there should be no stamina issues at the business end. If there’s one that could prove a thorn in her side it’s probably SERENGETI EMPRESS, who although an infrequent winner takes some solid statistics into the race. VENETIAN HARBOR can gain revenge on SPEECH from their running earlier in the year and grab a minor cheque, while SALLY’S CURLIN has few miles on the clock and is a potential improver.

Prediction: 2-7-6-8

Race 5: BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT (Grade 1)
No12 - GOT STORMY
Trainer: Mark Casse - Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Since dropping back to sprinting GOT STORMY has taken out back-to-back races by wide margins and seems to be in just as good form as when denied by Uni in the Dirt Mile at Santa Anita 12 months ago. The resilient mare has won six and been placed in the other nine of her last 15 outings, and in spite of a questionable draw looks in the mood to complete what would be a famous hat-trick. LEINSTER is a must for all exotics in view of his current good form and appealing gate position. He’s been trained specifically for this and is a fresh horse after only those two winning appearances since July. At longer odds, the Neil Drysdale-trained OLEKSANDRA could get into the money, with her Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes triumph offering hope, while in what is probably the most open of all the Cup races on the card IMPRIMIS is another to have on your mind.

Prediction: 12-7-8-3

Race 6: BIG ASS FANS BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE (Grade 1)
No10 - COMPLEXITY
Trainer: Chad Brown - Jockey: Jose Ortiz

One of the horses I’m most looking forward to watching is COMPLEXITY, who avenged a narrow defeat in the Forego Stakes with a clear cut delivery in a Belmont Grade 2 last time. Key to the value of that win was that he dispatched a monster in Code Of Honor. His knockers will look back to an underwhelming effort when strongly fancied for the Juvenile in 2018, where he tried to go wire-to-wire but faded. Crucially he’s a much stronger individual now and can shake away from the front end. ART COLLECTOR has to also be of serious interest, as it was only in the Preakness Stakes that his unbeaten record was put to the sword, and MR FREEZE looked in good heart on the main track on Thursday, suggesting he can get involved. At longer odds, SHARP SAMURAI can also do some damage, as he’s very difficult to kick out of the frame.

Prediction: 10-9-2-1

Race 7: MAKER’S MARK BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF (Grade 1)
No6 - RUSHING FALL
Trainer: Chad Brown - Jockey: Javier Castellano

Brown boasts an incredible record in this, having been responsible for each of the last four US-based winners. His 2018 winner SISTERCHARLIE finished third to Iridessa last year and appears to have been handled with just this one race in mind. That said, there’s something sexy about RUSHING FALL’s unblemished run of success through 2020 and she looked near the top of her game when dispatching Mean Mary in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga. Sistercharlie finished in her wake that day. Furthermore, five of Rushing Fall’s career successes have happened at Keeneland, and that track craft gives her another advantage. MEAN MARY is drawn inside the selection and figures to make a race of it again, while of the European distaffers CAYENNE PEPPER can take home a portion of the crust for Jessica Harrington as she will relish the fast conditions.

Prediction: 6-2-14-4

Race 8: BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT (Grade 1)
No2 - C Z ROCKET
Trainer: Peter Miller - Jockey: Luis Saez

Miller knows better than most what it takes to triumph in this and C Z ROCKET can follow in the hoof prints of his previous dual winner Roy H. The selection defends a three-race unbeaten sequence since joining the trainer and has been most impressive on each occasion. It’s probably a further bonus to C Z Rocket that Saez, aboard for the gelding’s eye taking success at Santa Anita last time, is back in the irons. The Steve Asmussen-trained YAUPON is a son of Uncle Mo who defends a three-race unbeaten record and could be anything. Confidence in him is however tempered by a double-digit draw. Bill Mott’s multiple scorer FRANK’S ROCKETTE must also be respected and has started favourite for each of his seven career outings, having delivered in the last four. At longer odds and from a good slot three off the rail COLLUDION ILLUSION can also earn.

Prediction: 2-6-10-3

Race 9: FanDuel BREEDERS’ CUP MILE (Grade 1)
No2 - KAMEKO
Trainer: Andrew Balding - Jockey: Oisin Murphy

The horse that’s impressed me most on the track this week is KAMEKO in his gallop on turf on Thursday. The 2,000 Guineas winner grabbed the ground in a way that makes me think he will love the fast underfoot conditions for this final outing before retirement to Tweenhills Stud. From a draw closer to the rail than ideal Murphy will need to be alert and get the colt into a handy position as the Mile can be one of the more tactically frenetic contests at Breeders’ Cup. However, if he achieves that the colt’s notable turn of foot can prove decisive. American hopes lie in the main with last season’s Dirt Mile hero UNI and multiple scorer FACTOR THIS, though the latter will have to cover more ground than ideal from stall 13. The Chad Brown-trained DIGITAL AGE is also to be taken seriously. SISKIN’s bubble may now have been burst, while CIRCUS MAXIMUS looked over the top when out of the money in Ascot’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. If there’s an underrated European then SAFE VOYAGE fits that bill. John Quinn’s gelding went down narrowly to One Master in a blanket finish to the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp, having landed back-to-back Group 2s at York and Leopardstown. He comes out as almost the same horse as One Master, who would have been my pick for this if not ruled out by a training setback.

Prediction: 2-6-12-5

Race 10: LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF (Grade 1)
No10 - MONOMOY GIRL
Trainer: Brad Cox - Jockey: Florent Geroux

The sheer class of MONOMOY GIRL is reflected in her ability to return from an eight-month absence to post convincing successes in her trials for this coveted prize at Belmont and Churchill Downs. They gave the daughter of Tapizar an amazing eight-race unbeaten record even though she missed the best part of a full season. Even a wide draw isn’t enough to put me off her against classy operator SWISS SKYDIVER, who takes to post a stunning defeat of AUTHENTIC in the Preakness Stakes. Kenny McPeek’s charge battled hard for that, and from a pleasing gate must have every chance of following-up under veteran pilot Robby Albarado. DUNBAR ROAD was my pick for this 12 months ago when given a closing ride but with perhaps too much to do. That run was puzzling, but after two straight wins and a second to HOROLOGIST in a select campaign this year, she has to also be of serious interest.

Prediction: 10-3-5-4

Race 11: LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP TURF (Grade 1)

American hopes lie chiefly with CHANNEL MAKER, who has looked the real deal in New York. However, European interests have the balance of power. Irish eyes will be trained onto MAGICAL whose trainer Aidan O’Brien also saddles MOGUL, while veteran handler Dermot Weld fields the improving filly TARNAWA. Additionally, John Gosden has booked Frankie Dettori for LORD NORTH. MAGICAL sets a high bar for the others to aim at, being a seven-times Group 1 winner. Three of those prestige triumphs happened this season, including a defeat of Ghaiyyath in the Irish Champion Stakes. She wasn’t able to back that up against Addeybb in the Champion Stakes at Ascot but has shown on countless occasions the ability to bounce back. The only time she previously ran at Breeders’ Cup resulted in a narrow defeat against Enable in this race two years ago. Mogul is a gross individual who took a couple of runs to get fully fit this year, but when beating In Swoop in a Group 1 at Longchamp in September looked as good as ever. Tarnawa has built an unbeaten sequence of triumphs this year, and though her Group 1 triumphs at Longchamp happened with give in the ground, she has also won on ground not dissimilar to that shell experience on Saturday. She benefitted from a Christophe Soumillon masterclass when nailing Alpine Star in the Prix de l’Opera last time. Lord North appeared to hate the easy conditions when beaten out of sight in the Champion Stakes and is far better judged on his dazzling Prince Of Wales Stakes victory at Royal Ascot. Gosden’s son and assistant Thady has been delighted with the colt’s tuition under Frankie Dettori since his arrival earlier in the week, and he remains lightly-raced and open to improvement back on a faster surface.

Prediction: 6-2-3-10-9

Race 12: LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC (Grade 1)
No9 - AUTHENTIC
Trainer: Bob Baffert - Jockey: John Velazquez

Bob Baffert is throwing the kitchen sink at the marquee contest of Breeders’ Cup, fielding ante-post favourite IMPROBABLE, Kentucky Derby winner AUTHENTIC, and MAXIMUM SECURITY, the trio being drawn next to each other on the outside which should be a help rather than a hindrance. Authentic ended the impressive winning run of TIZ THE LAW at Churchill Downs before falling short against Swiss Skydiver in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. IMPROBABLE owes his place at the head of the market to a sensational last-to-first victory in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita when cutting down newcomers to the barn Maximum Security to make it three Grade 1 victories on the spin. Sporting the colours of one-time Classic hope McKinzie, Improbable has experienced issues at the starting gate while his winning is centred on his home track of Santa Anita. He needs to show he can keep his cool away from familiar surroundings. Authentic has looked assured in his work on the track through the week and might well be made more use of than when proving reluctant to put the race to bed against Swiss Skydiver in Baltimore. Tiz The Law has tended to stalk from a wide position in most of his races this year and it will be interesting to see whether he gets claustrophobic exiting gate 2. If he can get into a menacing position turning in, Tiz The Law can give Authentic plenty to think about.

Prediction: 9-2-8-10


DONCASTER

Race 2: No6 - MEDIA GUEST (Each Way)
Trainer: George Margarson - Jockey: Tom Queally

MEDIA GUEST was readily put to the sword by Aldaary on debut at Yarmouth, form which was boosted by the subsequent Leicester success of the latter. That will have done the Belardo colt a bundle of good, and he holds strong claims to go one better in this maiden.

Race 5: No9 - KALEIDOSCOPIC (Each Way)
Trainer: Mick Channon - Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa

KALEIDOSCOPIC benefitted from an enterprising ride from De Sousa to take out a Class 3 handicap over course and distance last month and now steps into Listed company. A previous winner at Sandown, who had excuses for a subsequent defeat at Newmarket, the daughter of Le Havre has started to live up to the high expectations always held of her and can surprise at a juicy price.

Race 7: No6 - SAM COOKE (Nap)
Trainer: Ralph Beckett - Jockey: Rob Hornby

The November Handicap is the big betting extravaganza of the day in which SAM COOKE makes plenty of sense. He’s a lightly-raced individual that we definitely haven’t seen the best of, and having run well on both starts this season can now show the benefit of a break to make up for lost time.

Two women looking excitedly at cellphone

AINTREE

Race 1: No2 - DOCPICKEDME
Trainer: Harry Whittington - Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr

Impressive when winning his only start in a point, DOCPICKEDME has looked a natural in his schooling as well as showing plenty in his work. He’s up against a couple of dangerous rivals in Wilde About Oscar and Dubai Guest but could spring a minor surprise.

Race 5: No1 - CALL ME LORD (Nap)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson - Jockey: James Bowen

CALL ME LORD enjoyed a selective campaign last season, highlighted by a defeat of one of today’s foes Ch’tibello in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. Things didn’t work out for him in both a trial for the Champion Hurdle at Sandown and the Champion itself, but he’s a horse that goes well fresh and is considered sufficiently forward to take this.

Race 6: No2 - THE BIG BITE
Trainer: Henry Oliver - Jockey: Jonathan Burke

Respect is afforded to the veteran Duke Of Navan who likes these Mildmay fences but THE BIG BITE could prove too sprightly for him. The selection kept good company in his three races over fences last season, and if benefitting from a change of scenery can strike first time for his new handler.

Jockeys Ride Horses

WINCANTON

Race 2: No2 - LORD BADDESLEY
Trainer: Chris Gordon - Jockey: Tom Cannon

Odds-on Flic Ou Voyou has looked assured in his two recent wins, but LORD BADDESLEY also impressed on his comeback at Fontwell and should not be underestimated. With just three outings under his belt, he has abundant scope for progression.

Race 6: No15 - KITTY’S LIGHT (Each Way)
Trainer: Christian Williams - Jockey: Jack Tudor

This is an ultra-competitive renewal of the ‘ Badger Beer’ Trophy that should attract some lively betting. One that could spring in the market is KITTY’S LIGHT, who has really found some form in winning three of his last four. Not only that, he’s getting plenty of weight from his rivals, while his pilot can take off a further 5lb. He impressed me when beating Sizing At Midnight at Exeter, and though meeting that foe on worse terms can confirm his superiority.

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