ICC World T20 Semi-Final: India vs South Africa Preview

Written by Maverick White for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!


India vs South Africa | Friday 04 April | Dhaka | 15:00

Sometimes, cricket need not be pretty. Any observer will attest that, conventionally, the Proteas have not gone about their game in a manner deserved of a spot in the World Cup semi-finals. However, T20 cricket is a different beast. Squeaky victories over the Black Caps and lowly Netherlands, games that could easily have gone the other way, translated into desperate points, while the Proteas’ victory over England was fairly convincing. In fact, it looked as though the Proteas hit top gear in that match. This is concerning, considering India are unbeaten thus far and have hardly broken a sweat in navigating the Group of Death. With India on the brink of securing all three global limited overs titles, the dreamed purpose behind the IPL is becoming realised. India are the megalith, the undisputed heavyweight champions. What chance do the underdogs have of dethronement?

To Win
India 6/10
Tie 35/1
South Africa 14/10

India
Aside from their magnificent form, India have one other added advantage. They have played all four of their group games in Dhaka. Their spinners have proved extremely difficult to get away in the conditions, Mishra and Ashwin thriving. India chased in their opening three games and failed to lose more than three wickets in any of those innings. Against Australia they were afforded the opportunity to bat first, scoring 159/7 with Yuvraj Singh rediscovering his devastating touch with 60 from 43 balls. Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli have consistently scored runs, both with two half-centuries already in the tournament. Kohli averages a staggering 85.00, failing to be dismissed twice. Raina, Dhoni and Jadeja provide the firepower lower down the order, making India a tough side to dismiss or contain.

India’s much vaunted batting line-up is a tough prospect for any opponent, but it is their overwhelming success with the ball that has made them the complete package so far this tournament. In the past, sides knew they were in with a chance if they managed to contain the big hitters. India’s death bowling was often not up to scratch and leaked runs primarily through the seamers. The Proteas have taken advantage of this before and have ensured Virat Kohli underscores more often than any other limited overs nation. However, in this tournament India have looked to take the pace off of the ball, playing Kumar and Shami as a lone pair of seamers and employing up to four spinners to choke the run rate. They have yet to concede more than 138 in any innings, and bowled Australia out for 86.

South Africa

It’s not all doom and gloom for the underdogs. In fact, having expressed the notion that South Africa have found a way to win ugly, the statistics in their favour are surprising. Imran Tahir is the leading wicket-taker in the tournament among the Test playing nations, who have only played four matches as opposed to seven required of the Netherlands and Bangladesh. He has eleven wickets to his name at an average of 9.18, Steyn following closely behind with nine wickets at an average of 13.00. They are separated by Indian leg-spinner Amit Mishra, with nine wickets at a slimmer average than both Tahir and Steyn while Ashwin is fourth with seven wickets. It will definitely be a battle between the bowling attacks in Dakar, the Proteas likely to persist with Parnell and Hendricks following their success against England.

It is no secret that the Proteas find themselves at the business end of the tournament thanks to the exploits of Steyn and Tahir. The batsmen have largely struggled, although the Proteas’ game plan worked a charm against the English. The plan being, start with a solid platform anchored by Amla, letting the likes of de Villiers, Duminy, Miller and Morkel free their arms at the death. Kohli tops the Test playing scorers list, but Amla is only seven runs behind with 163 in four innings. He’s the form player, although the Proteas will be delighted with AB’s cameo of 69 not out from 28 balls in their final match. This is what the Proteas have lacked all tournament; in fact, it has been missing in the camp for quite some time. The Proteas have batsmen with the ability to strike the ball a long way, the problem is how seldom they deliver the goods at international level. What makes this tie extremely interesting is that South Africa will prefer batting first and setting a total that Tahir and Steyn can defend, while India enjoy the chase. Much will depend on which team executes their strategy the most effectively.

Venue
As the tournament has progressed, much like Chittagong, Dhaka has become more difficult to score runs on. Keeping wickets in hand for late acceleration is key, while one feels that a score in the region of 150-160 will be challenging to chase. If it’s the Proteas who are doing the setting however, a little more may be required with India so proficient in hunting down a target.

VERDICT: India 6/10
The South African batting attack fired against England, though their opponents bowled predominantly seam and pale in comparison to the guile of India. With four left-handers in Duminy, de Kock, Miller and Morkel, Ashwin is likely to have a field day while Mishra bamboozles the right-handers. The Indian batsmen will pick Tahir better than any other side they have faced and Duminy is likely to get slaughtered against a side so well-versed in the art of playing spin bowling. I can’t see the Proteas having enough runs here. India to dominate.

Disagree with Maverick? Let us hear your thoughts. Please comment below.