Jonhenry Wilson breaks down how the World Test Championship works and whether or not the Proteas have a realistic shot at claiming the title.
South Africa’s fantastic series win against Bangladesh last week immediately had everyone talking about the World Test Championship and the Proteas’ chances of qualifying to play in the final at Lords.
It all sounds quite awesome, but what exactly does it mean? When is it? How do teams qualify to play in it? And critically, what are South Africa’s chances of being there? Let’s take a quick look.
What is the World Test Championship?
Launched in 2019, the World Test Championship was introduced in an attempt to add context and competitiveness to Test matches. The ICC wanted every match to count towards something bigger than the series itself and so the Test Championship concept was born.
Played over a two-year cycle, Test teams compete in bilateral Test series with each side expected to play six series -three at home and three away. Points awarded based on the results of each series.
At the end of each cycle, the two top sides on the table face off against each other in a one-off final, which is played at the home of cricket, Lords, in London.
When does the current cycle end?
The current cycle of the World Test Championship began in 2023 and is set to conclude in June 2025. What that means is that before the final is played, there are still seven series that need to be played.
So, aside from the games already played and the points already won, the following series still need to be completed before the top two teams are known:
- November 2024-January 2025: Australia v India (five-match series)
- November-December 2024: West Indies v Bangladesh (two-match series)
- November-December 2024: South Africa v Sri Lanka (two-match series)
- November-December 2024: New Zealand v England (three-match series)
- December 2024-January 2025: South Africa v Pakistan (two-match series)
- January 2025: Pakistan v West Indies (two-match series)
- January-February 2025: Sri Lanka v Australia (two-match series)
Who’s in the running for the next final?
Let’s start by saying that as it stands England, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the West Indies are out of the running. No matter how well they play between now and the end of the cycle they cannot muster the points to get into the top two.
With those four already eliminated, it means there are just five sides who could yet make it into the top two. And the good news is that South Africa can absolutely make it. In fact, not just could they make it, but they are in a very good position to do so given that they still have two series to play and that both are at home.
That means there are a lot of points up for grabs, and, the story gets better all the time, both series that need to be played are against sides the proteas will be expected to beat.
In the upcoming South African summer, the Proteas will both Sri Lanka and Pakistan and a full haul of points would put them firmly into the mix for a place in the final. In fact, if South Africa claim a full points haul then they are guaranteed to make the final.
As it stands the best-case scenario (assumes that the team wins every match it plays) for each of the teams involved is as follows:
- Australia – best possible finish: 76.32%
- South Africa – best possible finish: 69.44%
- India – best possible finish: 69.30%
- Sri Lanka – best possible finish: 69.23%
- New Zealand – best possible finish: 64.29%
As you will see from the fixture list, it is not possible for every team on the list to win maximum points. For example, if Australia drop a Test or two against India, their best possible number drops. If Sri Lanka beat South Africa, they will suddenly be in a very powerful position.
So, there is a lot to play for, which is very exciting. With two Test series on the horizon this summer South Africa’s unheralded Test side could be on the brink of something special. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on!
