We are one game away from the final of a major ICC tournament and it's one that both South Africa and New Zealand will want to win badly.
ICC Champions Trophy – Semi-final 2
South Africa v New Zealand
Wednesday 5 February 2025 – 11:00
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore
South Africa last won an ICC competition back in 1998, when they were victors in the inaugural staging of this event. New Zealand went on to claim the crown in the second staging of the tournament, in 2000. Since then neither side has won an ICC event, although the Black Caps have been losing finalists on three occasions.
South Africa arrives in the semis on the back of an undefeated tournament thus far. They were comprehensive winners over England and Afghanistan while their game against Australia was abandoned without a ball being bowled. South Africa’s net run-rate for the pool stages was 2.395, while India (who finished top of Group A) were just 0.715.
To Win Match
Proteas 72/100 | Tie 25/1 | New Zealand 23/20
What makes South Africa’s white ball team so curious is that outside of key tournaments they seldom seem to play their strongest eleven, opting instead to rest key players and expose new talent to the international stage.
It’s why, in recent times, they have headed into tournaments with low expectations from the public. But anyone who knows anything about ODI cricket will be able to tell you that this is a fearsome Proteas side – New Zealand are ranked fourth by the ICC and South Africa fifth, but that’s probably not a true reflection of how good the Proteas really are.
South Africa v New Zealand | Champions Trophy semi-final two | Wednesday 05 February 2025 | Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore | 11:00am
Venue: Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore
This is expected to be a good surface for scoring runs. While the ball may offer some assistance to the seamers early on, it’s expected to get better for shot making as the ball gets older. Spin is likely to play a key role in the middle overs.
The Gaddafi Stadium is the venue where both Afghanistan and Australia beat England in high-scoring games – in those games a massive 1349 runs were scored and there is no reason to suspect that there won’t be plenty of runs available again on Wednesday. No rain os predicted, which is good news.
There is not much difference between batting first and batting second at Gaddafi Stadium. Of the 69 games played at the venue 35 have been won by the side batting first and 32 by the side batting second. Over the last five ODIs played at the venue ,the average first innings score is 290
Recent form (most recent game first):
South Africa: W, A, W, L, L.
New Zealand: L, W, W, W, W.
Key players:
South Africa: Marco Jansen
When they are at full strength, one of the key elements of South Africa’s success is their balance. In Marco Jansen and Wiaan Mulder the Proteas have two of the best all-rounders in the modern game, men who are equally effective with both the bat and ball. Marco Jansen is one such player.
He has been in excellent form all year, making a big impact in SA20 and catching fire with a man-of-the-match performance against England on Saturday. Opening the bowling, Jansen returned figures of three for 39 as he ripped out the England top order.
Jansen is a genuinely special cricketer, he is properly quick, but he is also outrageously tall at 2,06m. On top of all that he’s a lefthander. In short, he is different, and a real handful and a player perfectly suited to make a big difference on Wednesday.
New Zealand: Kane Williamson
A genuinely world-class cricketer Williamson averages almost 50 in ODIs. It’s a remarkable average and what’s more important is that he’s a man for the big occasion.
He is also in good form having led the resistance for the Black Caps in their weekend defeat at the hands of India. In that game he returned to form with a well-played 81 from 120 balls.
He was also electric in the field, pulling off a diving catch that would also have added to his confidence. It is worth noting that while Williamson’s ODI average is already spectacular at 49.11, against South Africa it is 57.35.
Verdict: South Africa
New Zealand beat South Africa the last time the two sides met, which was during the tri-series warm-up event in Pakistan.
But that was a narrow win over a Proteas side that lacked key players like Ryan Rickelton, Rassie van der Dussen, Marco Jansen, Aiden Markram, Kagiso Rabada and Tristan Stubbs.
Wednesday’s version of the Proteas will be full-strength and, while it will undoubtedly be a close game, the Proteas should have too much.
