If the first Test between South Africa and Pakistan showed anything, it is that the two sides are very evenly matched.
The Proteas’ narrow win at Centurion secured their place in the final of the World Test Championship which means the pressure is off. How that translates is the big question.
The second Test is the traditional New Years’ fixture at Newlands – it is almost guaranteed to be a sell-out (at least for the first three days). Fans would be excused for being reticent with their ticket buying decisions though – the last Test at Newlands (the New Year Test against India at the start of 2024) ended inside two days.
There is not much difference between batting first and batting second at Newlands. The last nine games have been split evenly between the side batting first and the side batting second (44.4% either way), with one match drawn.
While Newlands traditionally favours the quicker bowlers, this is usually a track that helps the spinners as well.
South Africa vs Pakistan | Second Test | Friday 03 January 2025 | Newlands, Cape Town | 10:30
South Africa
If Keshav Maharaj plays the big question for South Africa will be who to leave out. Kagiso Rabada is going nowhere, and neither is Marco Jansen. leaving Dane Paterson out would be a travesty and after his performance at Centurion it would be tough to leave Corbin Bosch out.
So will they opt to go in a batsman light and maybe even look to promote Bosch up the order. if that is the case David Bedingham could be the man asked to carry the drinks – he is averaging just 22 from his last 12 innings, with just one 50 going back to August.
Rabada is a man who loves Newlands. We all know that he just recently passed the 300-wicket milestone, which is a great achievement, but 46 of his Test wickets come at Newlands. At an average of 20.7 this is a happy hunting ground for South Africa’s premier fast bowler.
Marco Jansen has bowled a whole lot less at Newlands than Rabada has but he has also fared well. South Africa’s opening duo will be looking forward to working the Pakistan batsmen over.
Aiden Markram is a man slowly coming back to form. After a patchy period where he managed starts but failed to push on, he looks to have come right at the perfect time.
While batsmen floundered all around him at Centurion he looked like a man in control. He top scored in the first innings with 89 and had the second highest score in the second knock with 37. His epic one-man-stand in the two-day fiasco last time out at Newlands will give him good confidence.
While he was as abject as everyone else in the first innings effort of 55 all out, he fought a lone crusade in the second dig, contributing 106 to a total of 176.
Pakistan
It has been a long time since the much-vaunted Babar Azam has weighed in with big runs in a Test. In his last 20 innings he has passed 50 just once – and that was at Centurion. He averages just 21 from his last 20 knocks and will want to offer more in Cape Town.
Pakistan’s number five batsman Saud Shakeel is now their highest ranked batter – on the latest ICC rankings he is three places up to sixth. He’s the highest ranked batsman on either side.
They say that slow and steady wins the race and while he doesn’t appear the most threatening of bowlers Mohammad Abbas has shown that it is not all about speed.
His accuracy and the ability to move the ball off the seam proved just as useful as electric pace and steepling bounce as he claimed six for 54 in the second innings at Centurion.
Now ranked 23rd in the world he is probably never going to make it to number one, but he is a man who knows he trade and who will be confident and eager to do more damage at Newlands.
Pakistan’s highest ranked bowler is veteran spinner Noman Ali. He didn’t play at Centurion, but it looks likely that he will get a run out at Newlands. Last year, 2024, was his best ever in Test cricket as he managed 20 wickets in just two games. He will be hoping for a good start to 2025.
At Centurion, Pakistan adopted the approach that it was a wicket where you were never in. They looked to take risks and play their shots. It’s debateable if that was the right approach.
While there were undoubtedly some batsmen who were removed by excellent balls, there were plenty more who got out playing injudicious shots. A little more application and they would probably have won.
Verdict: South Africa
With qualification for the WTC final in the bag now South Africa can play with freedom. They will also want to underscore their quality and remove any questions surrounding the merits of their qualification.
Playing in front of a big Cape Town crowd and with key players like Temba Bavuma, Markram, Rabada and Jansen all in good form, this should be South Africa’s.
