Written by Rick John Henry for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
New Zealand vs South Africa | Monday 20 October | Mount Maunganui | 23:30
No international cricket has ever been played in New Zealand in October. This season begins in the spring, as the Proteas visit one of the two countries set to host next year’s World Cup. They come up against a rusty Kiwi unit who haven’t featured in international cricket since early July, and haven’t competed in an ODI since January. It will be an exercise in rust removal for the hosts, who South African captain AB de Villiers touts as real contenders to take the World Cup. No more dark horse labels according to the skipper, this New Zealand side is no longer made of bits-and-pieces players hoping to stage an upset. At least not in the shorter formats. However, they will be far from full strength for the first encounter and indeed, most of the series.
To Win
New Zealand 31/20
Tie 35/1
South Africa 5/10
New Zealand
Not much else could have gone wrong for New Zealand in preparation for the new season. They began by scraping past Scotland by one-run last week and had the second practice match against Ireland abandoned. Despite having been out of the international cricket scene in recent times, the Black Caps enter their series against South Africa carrying several injuries. Both Ross Taylor and Adam Milne will miss the entire series, while Kane Williamson is scheduled to miss the first ODI with a wrist problem. Tim Southee has been declared fit but also looks set to miss the opening match. The Black Caps are set to experiment further with Jimmy Neesham in an opening partnership with Martin Guptill, as the captain and selectors are adamant that they need a bowling option among the top three batsmen. On account of the plethora of first-team injuries, Dean Brownlie slots in a three to make a return against opposition he will recall fondly, battling to a Test match century against the Proteas on a tricky wicket. He is followed by a promoted McCullum and demoted Tom Latham. Veteran spinner Daniel Vettori could also make an appearance, still being in New Zealand’s World Cup plans. A player to keep an eye on and indeed, one of New Zealand’s more valuable finds, Mitchell McClenaghan needs two more wickets to become the second-fastest to fifty in New Zealand’s ODI history.
South Africa
The Proteas will take a full-strength side on tour, as the walking wounded slowly recover ahead of the side’s most important preparation for next year’s showpiece. Following this tour the Proteas travel straight to Australia for more limited overs fixtures, perfect preparation for the tournament to be hosted in both countries. Indeed, if South Africa can manage victories in both away series, it will fill the side with immeasurable confidence going ahead. The Proteas have also named an experimental T20 squad, making sure the focus is fully on the fifty over game. Mthokozisi Shezi makes way for Vernon Philander, indicating that South Africa will use their Test pace attack going forward in the one-dayers. Kyle Abbott provides back-up in that department at the expense of Lonwabo Tsotsobe (regaining match fitness), Beuran Hendricks (injured) and Marchant de Lange (excluded). Imran Tahir and Aaron Phangiso have been named as the primary spinners, the only conundrum being that the inclusion of both in the starting line-up leaves the Proteas with a longer tail than they would prefer. Despite an uninspiring run in Zimbabwe, Rilee Rossouw keeps his place as the back-up batsmen. Otherwise, it is all systems go for South Africa, with captain de Villiers earmarking fielding as having the biggest room for improvement.
Venue
The Bay Oval will host the opening two fixtures and with just a solitary ODI between Canada and the Netherlands to its name, comes as a relatively unknown entity. Perception is that the pitch plays slightly on the slow side, although pitches in New Zealand have improved with pace and carry in recent times. No rain is expected.
VERDICT: South Africa 5/10
The Proteas come into the match with the stronger, more settled squad and will be looking to improve on an already healthy record on the road, securing wins in nine of their last eleven away fixtures. The ball is likely to move around in the air and in Dale Steyn, South Africa have the world’s best exponent of swing. Faf du Plessis is also experiencing an incredible run of form that has spanned continents and formats. He will be important as South Africa’s number three. On the basis of New Zealand missing key players, I wouldn’t look further than a Proteas victory.
