Written by Maverick White for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
South Africa vs Australia | Saturday 01 March – Wednesday 05 March | Newlands | 10:30
In the latter stages of 2011, Australia visited South Africa for a two-Test series and left with a share of the spoils. Public outcry for a longer series was heard far and wide, the need for a decider between two sides who have the measure of one another a common complaint in a day and age where only the Ashes are granted five Tests in a series. Although a three-match series in 2014, the fact that Australia and South Africa are deadlocked once again cannot help but lead one to fantasise about the potential of a five-Test feast. Nevertheless, Cape Town will host the deciding match of this fantastic Test series, with memories of Australia’s collapse for 47 at the ground in 2011 still sharp. It’s been a rather difficult few weeks for the punter; my previews for the first two Tests were horrendously off the mark. With Test cricket of this intensity, where every session holds untold importance and play is ruthless, predictions are a dangerous game. Well, someone has to do it. And it may as well be me.
To Win
South Africa 11/10
Draw 27/10
Australia 19/10
South Africa
Priced up as favourites, the Proteas have had the week to absorb their resounding second Test win and bask in the glory that comes with thumping a bitter rival. It would’ve been a much better week for the side had David Warner not stirred the pot with accusations of ball tampering, getting himself fined 15% of his match fee in the process. The Proteas, especially Dale Steyn, found prodigious reverse swing on the fourth day afternoon and evening sessions, prompting Australia’s embarrassing collapse with the bat. Warner’s comments resembled those of a sore loser, in a team that was thoroughly outplayed. The Proteas’ coach Russell Domingo has indicated that the side will use the accusations as motivation for further destruction of the Australian top order.
Although South African captain Graeme Smith is woefully out of form, the Proteas found a way to manage without his burly exploits. He will keep his place and history dictates that he will be in the runs again soon; Newlands especially is a happy hunting ground for the unorthodox left-hander. Dean Elgar showed the courage and technique necessary to open the batting at Test level, wearing a few bouncers from Mitchell Johnson on the body and scoring a useful 83 in the first innings. Amla, back in form, recorded a second innings century, while de Villiers continued his mesmeric run-scoring by notching up a century in the first innings, along with JP Duminy. Parnell will be sidelined with the groin injury he picked up in the second Test and with Domingo seemingly content with Duminy in the role of the holding spinner, Kyle Abbott may make his way into the side as the fourth seamer. Unless Alviro Petersen opens the batting and Elgar is moved to six, prodigy Quinton de Kock should keep his place.
Australia
The Australians clearly have a weakness on pitches of a slower nature, a flaw exposed at St. George’s Park. In recent years they have suffered resounding losses in India and were beaten by the English on slow wickets in the first Ashes series of 2013. Although, in the past, Johnson, Siddle and Harris have all been able to find varying degrees of swing in the air, in Port Elizabeth they were made to toil on a wicket that offered very little. The truth be told, the South Africans had better use of conditions for both bowling and batting, though the gulf between the two sides’ pace attacks was large. As badly as Australia’s pace trio will be wanting to bounce back, Ryan Harris is doubtful of a start due to his persistent knee injury. However, good news for the Australian attack comes in the form of Shane Watson’s fitness and he will likely be utilised to ease the workload. There should be a bit more pace in the Newlands pitch and I have a funny feeling that Mitchell Johnson is not quite done with the Proteas yet.
With Watson back to fitness, it seems likely that either Alex Doolan or Shaun Marsh will miss out. It would perhaps necessitate a move up the order for captain Michael Clarke, with Smith batting five and Watson in at six. However, Clarke is in a run of bad form and has seemed more and more reluctant to bat up the order despite widespread calls for him to do so. If Ryan Harris is sidelined, the most likely candidate to replace him would be James Pattinson.
Venue
Word from Cape Town is that Newlands is shaping up to be a good cricket wicket, meaning an even contest between bat and ball. The seamers will generally find assistance over the first three days, especially if there is any cloud cover. When the sun is out, there are runs to be had. South Africa have dominated at the ground, drawing three and winning eight of the last eleven Tests hosted at Newlands. The last loss came to Australia in 2006.
BEST: Top South Africa Bowlers, Vernon Philander 2/1
Philander has been immense when playing at Newlands, picking up wickets with reckless abandon. Figures of 5-15 against Australia and 5-7 against New Zealand bear testament to this, the Newlands track perfectly suited to Philander’s subtle seam movement. As a double-your-money investment, the price is right. Get on.
VERDICT: South Africa 11/10
This Test will be one of the few that the Proteas will have to win in order to create a lasting legacy. Not only will it underline their status as the best in the world, but will set another record in being the first series win against Australia on South African soil since readmission. The stakes are too high for the Proteas to lose. Back them.
