Written by Maverick White for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
West Indies vs England | Wednesday 05 March | Antigua | 15:30
If we possessed the ability to peer into the future, a year ago one would have been forgiven looking at the scorecards from the first two ODIs of this series and coming to the conclusion that both teams were fielding second string sides. Had the future game descended into a madness akin to the mid-1970s, when Packer cricket and Rebel tours ruled? While, of course, present day resembles nothing of the sort (unless you count the IPL circus as a divisive force; I do) it does offer food for thought, especially in the case of England. While the West Indies are ravaged by injury, England’s schedule has necessitated leaving behind key ODI players in order to gather a cohesive T20 squad for the World Cup. However, notwithstanding injuries of their own, England’s demolition at the hands of Australia has left them psychologically damaged and forever changed. These are dark times for English cricket, a period from which some players will never recover. Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen will attest to that. Luckily, they find the ODI series poised at 1-1, with an opportunity to come back from a match down and restore some pride.
To Win
West Indies 11/10
Tie 35/1
England 7/10
West Indies
Lendl Simmons was the only form of resistance in a paltry West Indian performance with the bat in the second ODI. He accounted for 70 of the West Indies’ 159 runs and seems to be in good form, scoring 65 in the first ODI to help his country to a win. In the opening match, the West Indies again lost their top order cheaply, but resolute performances from Simmons and Dwayne Bravo allowed the hosts to recover to a point where Sammy could launch in the death. Narine was the star of the bowling attack in that match, strangling England sufficiently to cause them to fall short of a total that should never have looked in danger of chasing following a century from their opener. In the following match, the batting unit asked far too much of the bowlers, despite the visitors making a meal of the chase of 160. Narine was special once again, going for merely 2.50 an over. Nikita Miller also troubled the English, once again highlighting their weakness against the spinners. The Windies will be hopeful of putting one over the old rivals, if they can set a decent total I feel their bowlers have shown to ability to defend it. They have yet to chase in this series, but there is no doubt that they possess to firepower to do so.
England
The English will take a victory any way it comes. Having lost sixteen of their last nineteen matches in all formats, even an unconvincing win will lighten the dreary mood in the English dressing room. The morale of the squad is fragile as is, an ODI series loss will do the camp no favours ahead of a T20 series against the defending world champions and the T20 World Cup itself. The ODI side at the moment is dominated by T20 squad specialists due to the nature of England’s schedule, but in a way, the absence of England’s previous beacons of success has provided opportunity. Had the schedule not been constricted, had Eoin Morgan and Alex Hales not picked up last minute injuries, 34-year-old Michael Lumb would not have scored a century on ODI debut, nor would there have been a chance for the talented Moeen Ali. While England can of course learn from their experiences in the Caribbean, international pressure still demands results. Collapse and lack of intent in their first batting performance was followed by going seven down in a chase of 160. At the moment, 250 looks a distant total for England on the slow Antigua track, and this does not bode well.
Venue
Antigua has been a turgid track, lacking pace and therefore difficult for stroke-play. The West Indian spinners have proved a handful and England will need to find a way to score off Sunil Narine, lest they lose control of the run rate. 250 looks a good score here. There is very little chance of rain.
BEST: Top West Indies Batsman, Dwayne Bravo 6/1
An unconventional choice, but one I feel is fairly educated. The West Indian top order have had a rough time of late and can’t seem to scrape a handful of runs between them. This leads me to believe that the West Indies will need their competent middle-order to come to the fore, as in the first ODI, and as Bravo proved with 87 not out, he’s the man for the job. He was also the only other batsman aside from Lendl Simmons who looked comfortable at the crease as the West Indies capitulated in the second ODI.
VERDICT: West Indies 11/10
Call it a hunch, call it perception, but to me England don’t fit the bill as favourites. Sure, the West Indies are prone to collapse and without precious top-order batsmen, but it only takes a couple of worthwhile partnerships to scupper a fragile England batting line-up. Back the outsiders at a healthy price.
