Written by Maverick White for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
South Africa vs Sri Lanka | Saturday 22 March | Chittagong | 11:30
The Proteas begin their World T20 campaign against one of the pre-tournament favourites and number one ranked T20 side, Sri Lanka. South Africa looked outclassed at home against Australia in the recent twenty-over series and will be looking to build on the mild momentum they have gained from their warm-up victories against Bangladesh A and Pakistan. The Sri Lankans came unstuck against a strong West Indies side in their latest warm-up, though as usual, the impact of such matches is uncertain. Both sides are relatively fortunate to find themselves in Group A, the easier of the two Super 10 groups. However, the nature of this tournament can be unnaturally harsh, a single loss leading to potential eviction, as India found out the hard way in 2012.
To Win
South Africa 21/20
Tie 35/1
Sri Lanka 8/10
South Africa
Twenty-two years, six World Cups and four World T20s. The Proteas still have nothing to show for their participation in world events except memorable slices of bad luck, poor planning and one Champions Trophy. South Africa’s uncanny ability to ‘choke’ in world tournaments is again the subject of debate, though, as the camp have alluded, there is no magical solution to this phenomenon. World Cups, especially T20 ones, are won with players in good form, playing consistently good cricket as a team. Sure, mental preparation and a desire to win play their part, but only if executed clinically. In South Africa’s case, it’s difficult to know who is in form. Not much cricket was played against Australia due to rain and the warm-up fixtures have done little to earmark any potential stars. The ongoing hamstring strain of Dale Steyn is a huge cause for concern, with Faf du Plessis battling the same ailment. Morne Morkel seems to be past his shoulder niggle and Beuran Hendricks is bowling exceptionally well; in my opinion he should be the only left-arm seam option South Africa consider at this stage, Steyn’s fitness depending. The Proteas arrive in Bangladesh with three spinners, excluding the part-time leggies of Faf du Plessis. Imran Tahir has been given a licence to strike, while JP Duminy has all but cemented a few overs for himself. Aaron Phangiso will likely make up the numbers.
The opening partnership of Hashim Amla and Quinton de Kock seems well balanced, though Amla has been far less fluent than he was in Ram Slam T20 series. There’s always the chance of Amla batting himself into a hole and becoming a liability. A strong middle-order of du Plessis, de Villiers, Duminy and Miller bodes well, all having the capability to launch devastating counter-attacks. Albie Morkel at seven also holds promise, though his bowling is often too easily dispatched. The Proteas laboured to their warm-up win against Bangladesh A, though they decimated Pakistan. South Africa actually have a pretty strong record on the subcontinent and in this tournament. But first, they must meet a plucky Sri Lankan side riding a wave of confidence.
Sri Lanka
Big news in the Sri Lankan camp is the dual loss of Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene from the T20 international arena upon the conclusion of the tournament. Their retirements leave two gaping holes in the Sri Lankan batting line-up and Tillakaratne Dilshan can’t be far away from hanging up his boots. Sri Lankan selector Sanath Jayasuriya was furious at not being informed prior to their public retirements, but despite off-field issues, the new-found Sri Lankan juggernaut rolls onward. They’ve been in Bangladesh for six weeks already, in which time they’ve beaten the hosts across all three formats, won the Asia Cup without losing a game, beaten India in a World Cup warm-up and have, just recently, lost to the West Indies. Their experience of having been in the country, playing limited overs cricket on these wickets, will no doubt hold them in good stead. Sri Lanka have long been fierce tournament competitors but often fail at the last hurdle; the final. Their conclusive Asia Cup win sees a Sri Lankan side determined to turn that corner and the only risk attached to their recent winning culture is that of complacency. An area they have earmarked for improvement is fielding, so expect a hungry bunch taking to the field on Saturday. They possess the best death bowler in the world in Lasith Malinga, have a competent team of spinners and a potent top-order. The key for the Proteas will be early wickets, as well as runs within the first six overs.
Venue
Chittagong will play host to this electrifying fixture, prior to the World Cup having only hosted two T20 internationals. Both were this year, both between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh and both resulted in Sri Lankan victory. It’s a slow track and a score of 150 could prove to be defendable, though the team batting first will aim to surpass 160. The weather should remain clear.
VERDICT: Sri Lanka 8/10
No team of subcontinent origin should ever be underestimated on tracks likely to keep low and slow. Despite South Africa’s good record on such wickets recently and their ascendency over Sri Lanka, I feel the Proteas’ T20 side is undercooked and lacks proper planning in match situations.
