Written by Rick John Henry for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Australia vs South Africa | Saturday 06 September | Harare | 09:30
The Zimbabwe Triangular Series reaches its conclusion with the final that everyone expected. Despite the hosts insisting they were not there to simply make up the numbers with a victory over Australia, harnessing the consistency needed to progress proved a step too far for the minnows. The two finalists have played each other twice in the series and have shared the spoils, making this a fairly even match-up that is excruciating to call. In the last meeting, it was the Proteas’ death bowling that let them down, while Australia struggled to contain the chasing South African batsmen in the first fixture. It all comes down to one more ODI at Harare Sports Club, a rare chance for the Proteas to emerge with the bragging rights from an international one-day tournament.
To Win
Australia 17/20
Tie 35/1
South Africa 19/20
Australia
The Aussies would’ve been hard at work to correct their deficiencies against spin that were clearly exposed in their loss to Zimbabwe. Of the seven wickets they lost to the South Africans in their last outing, three went to the spinners. If the Proteas field a spin-heavy line-up, which is likely considering the wear of the Harare wicket, the Australians will be forced to counteract the threat. In the last match they made sure that they took enough runs off of the pace bowlers, particularly at the death, and it is likely that they will look to target the likes of Morkel and Parnell again. Phil Hughes is in good touch, notching up 85 last time out. He thrives on the short-pitched deliveries that allow him to cut and pull and will likely open up the innings with Aaron Finch, who scored a century against the Proteas in the first match-up. Australia will be missing captain Michael Clarke with a hamstring problem; Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, George Bailey and Mitchell Marsh will likely form the middle-order. Marsh is dangerous and destroyed South Africa in the death overs on Tuesday. Maxwell has yet to fire against the Proteas but will play his natural game regardless. In terms of a spin combination, Lyon, Maxwell and Smith should be tasked with keeping the South African batsmen quiet. What is most daunting about this Australian side is not necessarily who is playing – but looking towards the World Cup – who is missing.
South Africa
The Proteas have given a good account of themselves in the Zimbabwe Triangular Series but the bowlers have generally suffered at the hands of Australia. Dale Steyn was hit for three consecutive sixes for the first time in his career and all of Morkel, Parnell and McLaren have travelled at some stage. In the first fixture between the two sides South Africa conceded 327, only to be bailed out by magnificent batting displays from Faf du Plessis and AB de Villiers. In the second fixture, Australia plundered 62 runs from the final four overs, McLaren going for sixteen in each of his final two. McLaren will play no part in the final due to a hairline fracture to his forearm, the second time Mitchell Johnson has put him on the injury list. Judging by the side the Proteas fielded against Zimbabwe on Thursday, Parnell has been earmarked to replace him but conceded 66 runs in seven overs in his last excursion against the Aussies at this ground. To me, Kyle Abbott is the answer. He is a bowler who enjoys the ‘graveyard shift’ and can provide some lusty blows from the lower-order. He’s not far off Morne Morkel in terms of height and build, but that is where the similarities end. In the batting department, du Plessis is in the form of his life with three hundreds in the series so far (two against Australia), two fifties in the bilateral contest preceding this series and 98 in his last Test. He’s clearly taken to the region and is in charge of his game in Harare. The big question in the South African camp is whether they play a second specialist spinner or an extra batsman. Imran Tahir made way for Rilee Rossouw in the previous fixture, but whether the Proteas will risk the brittle middle-order batsman here remains to be seen.
Venue
No change of venue, as Harare Sports Club has hosted every game of the Triangular Series. Tired, low and slow, the spinners have enjoyed the prodigious turn on offer. Patient batsmen have flourished and sides will look to drop anchor at the beginning before a flurry of runs at the end. For a side to be successful, early inroads will be key. No rain is forecast.
BEST: Top South African Batsman, Faf du Plessis 33/10
The incumbent South African number three has experienced a dream few weeks in Zimbabwe and has adjusted well to the slow Harare pitch. As mentioned in a previous piece, Faf generally saves his best for the Aussies. With so much success it feels risky to back him as it seems he is due a failure, but it is the way he has played on the wicket that has been so impressive. Waiting and playing the ball late is of utmost importance and he has mastered that at the moment. Get on and don’t look back.
VERDICT: Australia 17/20
Essentially, the Proteas have been outplayed by Australia on both occasions. If not for du Plessis and de Villiers’ partnership in the first match, it is tough to see how South Africa would have got over the line in that one. It likely would have played out in much the same way as their second meeting. The bookies are leaning slightly in Australia’s favour and I would have to agree.
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