Heineken Cup Quarter-Finals Preview

Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!

Four colossal clashes await us this weekend in what will be the last ever Heineken Cup, with the Rugby Champions Cup taking over as the preeminent club competition in the Northern Hemisphere from next season. And with the English, Irish and French holding six titles apiece, the club that claims the crowning glory this season will render their country the most dominant nation in the competition’s 19-year history. France and Ireland, both boasting three sides in the final eight, have a slight statistical advantage the English, who field just two, and both of them away at that. But with huge sentimental significance now attached to this year’s title, the ante has risen to such an extent that statistical advantages becomes about as useful as an ashtray on a motorcycle, in determining which club will become synonymous with the emotional changing of the guard for European club rugby.

Munster vs Toulouse | Saturday 05 April | Thomond Park | 14:30
There‘s no easing into the action this weekend. With a staggering six titles between the two European powerhouses poised to kick off the quarter-final proceedings, you can rest assured there’ll be no shortage of intensity down in Limerick this Saturday.

To Win (80mins)
Munster 5/10
Toulouse 15/10
Draw 20/1

Handicaps
Munster (-4) 9/10
Toulouse (+4) 9/10

Munster bounced back well from their opening round shock defeat to Edinburgh, winning everything from there on in and wrapping up the pool stages with a resounding bonus-point victory over those very same Scots. They have proven to be a formidable force in the competition over the years, claiming the silverware twice (back in 2006 and 2008), and advancing through to the Top 8 stages every season except 2011. They have a solid pack with the likes of Peter O’Mahony, Paul O’Connell and Damien Varley in the ranks, and their backline has a fair amount of sting in it with Keith Earls, Ian Keatley and Conor Murray all capable of causing the visitors some grief this week. Toulouse have won the Cup a record four times, but have battled over the last few seasons, failing to make the knockout stages at all last season. They head into Limerick for the first time this weekend with several injury concerns looming above their heads. Samoan front-rower Census Johnston has been ruled out with a neck injury he picked up during Toulouse’s 32-28 defeat to Toulon in last week’s French Top 14 clash. Decisions regarding the availability of the in-form Louis Picamoles, Luke McAlister and Yannick Nyanga will be made closer to the match.

VERDICT: Munster (-4) 9/10
Toulouse head into Limerick with a star-studded outfit more than capable of fighting their way through to the semis. But the French domestic competition seems to be taking its toll as the season winds down, so I’m going to back the passionate Irish side this week to clear the four point handicap.

Clermont Auvergne vs Leicester Tigers | Saturday 05 April | Stade Marcel-Michelin | 17:00
After coming so close to tasting Heineken Cup glory last season, ultimately going down by a single point to Toulon in the final, Clermont will be pulling out all the stops from here on in to avoid missing out on their last chance at finally claiming that elusive title victory.

To Win (80mins)
Clermont 1/9
Tigers 11/2
Draw 33/1

Handicaps
Clermont (-11) 9/10
Tigers (+11) 9/10

Clermont have shown some impressive form this season, finishing top of their Heineken Cup pool and currently sitting in third in the Top 14 standings. They have some exciting talent in their ranks, such as Wesley Fofana, Brock James, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Aurelien Rougerie, and boast an unbelievable track record at home, unbeaten in their last 74 games. Leicester secured back-to-back titles in 2001/02, but haven’t had much of a presence in the competition since. They are looking strong in the Premiership at the moment, but haven’t looked all that threatening away from their beloved Welford Road. Australian Julian Salvi has proved an effective weapon at the breakdown this season, and could prove invaluable in France this weekend.

VERDICT: Tigers (+11) 9/10
Their astounding home record alone is enough to tip the scales in their favour, but I don’t see this match turning into a one-sided affair, so back the visitors to remain within the 11 points provided by the handicap. Clermont by 5.

Ulster vs Saracens | Saturday 05 April | Ravenhill Stadium | 19:30
Ulster left very little up to fate this season, storming into the quarters as the highest-ranked side of the competition, and the only team remaining unbeaten this year. Saracens claimed their seat in the playoffs under slightly different circumstances, shunted through as the top runner-up.

To Win (80mins)
Ulster 11/20
Saracens 14/10
Draw 20/1

Handicaps
Ulster (-3) 9/10
Saracens (+3) 9/10

Ulster will be aiming not only for a place in the semis, but for a bit of reprisal for last year’s unceremonious home quarter-final exit courtesy of Saracens. Ruan Pienaar, Tommy Bowe, Stephen Ferris and Rory Best are but a few of the gamechangers in the current Ulster setup, and with a roaring Belfast crowd behind them, Ulster are going to be a tough side to  take down. But if there is one side with the talent to pull it off, it is probably Saracens. Being bolstered by the likes of Charlie Hodgson, Chris Ashton, Brad Barritt, Kelly Brown, Owen Farrell and Alex Good will undoubtedly make the trip over to the Northern Irish province slightly less daunting for the Londoners.

VERDICT: Ulster (-3) 9/10
With Ruan Pienaar’s boot loaded and waiting to dish out punishment for the slightest infringement, Saracens are going to have to keep it tidy for the full 80 minutes, and I’m not sure they can. Ulster by 6.

Toulon v Leinster | Sunday 06 April | Stade Felix-Mayol | 17:30
The weekend ends off just as it started, with a brutal battle between dominant French and Irish club sides. The reigning champs run out at home against the side they took the crown from last season.

To Win (80mins)
Toulon 9/20
Leinster 17/10
Draw 20/1

Handicaps
Toulon (-4) 9/10
Leinster (+4) 9/10

Toulon really put in the hard yards this season, and evidently it paid off, with the French side finishing firmly on top of their Heineken Cup pool, and currently sitting comfortably in second spot on the French Top 14 standings. Bryan Habana, Matt Giteau, Bakkies Botha, Fred Michalak and Jonny Wilkinson all form part of this incredibly experienced cosmopolitan, hoping to see their way through to back-to-back title wins. It’s a task not made any easier by the arrival of Leinster this week, as the visitors are not looking all that shabby themselves at the moment. They currently lead the race in the domestic Rabo 12 competition, a feat made even more remarkable by the fact that they were without fifteen of their finest for much of the international season. Rob Kearney, James Heaslip, Ian Madigan, Luke Fitzgerald and Zane Kirchner offer a decent mix of exuberance and experience for the tourists, but it’s veteran centre Brian O’Driscoll that’ll be drawing the most attention as every game from here on in is potentially his last bow, and so demands a big performance from the entire side to ensure it is not.

VERDICT: Toulon (-4) 9/10
In my opinion the visitors have a far more lethal backline than their hosts, but with games of this nature generally adopting a conservative approach from both sides, Johnny’s boot looks set to be the determining factor. Toulon by 6.