Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
New Zealand vs England | Saturday 21 June | Waikato Stadium | 09:35
The All Blacks may have wrapped up the three-Test series against the Red Roses with a narrow 28-27 victory in Dunedin last week, but there remains plenty to play for in the final showdown at Waikato Stadium this Saturday. For the second week in a row the tourists had the world champions up against the wall only to fall at the last hurdle, so you can rest assured that Stuart Lancaster’s men will be pulling out all the stops in Hamilton this weekend to ensure their valiant efforts on this gruelling tour do not go unrewarded. The All Blacks have an equally compelling desire for success this week, equalling the record seventeen consecutive Test victories that they currently hold with arch-rivals South Africa. And having come so painstakingly close in 2012 to equalling the milestone they last achieved almost half-a-century ago, only to draw against the Wallabies, you can rest assured the All Blacks are going to be as ferocious as we’ve ever seen when they take to the pitch against their inexplicably resilient guests.
To Win (80mins)
New Zealand 2/11
England 42/10
Draw 30/1
Handicaps
New Zealand (-11.5) 9/10
England (+11.5) 9/10
New Zealand
Steve Hansen has made only two changes to his side this week and surprisingly, the promotion of Beauden Barrett is not one of them. Hansen’s misplaced faith in the severely out of form Aaron Cruden continues and could end up costing the home side in the final clash if England finally find some match-clinching composure. Cory Jane is another underperforming All Black that has evaded the axe throughout the series. Battle-hardened backrower Kieran Read returns to the starting side this week, shifting Jerome Kaino – one of last week’s few stand-out players – to the flank. Highlanders centre Malakai Fekitoa deservedly cracks the nod for a starting debut, replacing the injured Conrad Smith, and teams up with Ma’a Nonu in a formidable midfield pairing.
England
Stuart Lancaster has made several changes to his touring side following their near miss against the All Blacks in the second Test, with the backline taking most of the hit. Having fortunately lost the services of last week’s disappointing pivot Owen Farrell through injury, Lancaster has decided to pick Freddie Burns at flyhalf based on his impressive showing in the opening Test, overlooking Danny Cipriani despite his mesmerizing performance in their midweek clash against an admittedly under-strength Crusaders side. Injuries to Danny Care and Billy Twelvetrees (although their shoddy performances last week may have cost them their jerseys in any event) sees Kyle Eastmond claiming the number twelve this week and a worrying inclusion of Ben Youngs at scrumhalf. Chris Ashton left Lancaster little choice but to give him a start after the explosive impact he had off the bench last week, picking up a try in the nine short minutes he was given. He will team up with Marland Yarde on the wing as Manu Tuilagi shifts back to his logical position in the midfield after a failed attempt out wide last week. Up front Ben Morgan, Joe Launchbury and Rob Webber fall to the bench with Billy Vunipola, Courtney Lawes and Dylan Hartley cracking the nod for the run on side.
VERDICT: England 42/10
England came close to causing upsets in both Tests despite their relatively bland backline performances. If things finally start coming together this week they are in with a real shot, especially with Hansen’s refusal to ditch Cruden and play his best available playmaker Barrett. The All Blacks are known to lose their nerves in the milestone achieving games, England know that first hand having taken advantage of a jittery All Black side at the end of 2012 to claim a 38-21 win at Twickenham, preventing the All Blacks from becoming the first side in the professional era to go a full year unbeaten. I smelled an English upset then, but failed to back the underdogs. This time around I’m going with my gut.
Think we’ve got it wrong? Well leave your comments below and tell us how you think this is going to play out.
