We preview the much anticipated middleweight clash between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Gennady “GGG” Golovkin set to take place at the T-Mobile Arena on Sunday 17 September.
The face of Golden Boy promotions, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will go toe to toe with Gennady “GGG” Golovkin on Sunday 17 September for the Super WBA, WBC, IBF, and The Ring Magazine middleweight belts.
The bout – which have purists licking their lips in anticipation – follows hot on the heels of Mayweather v McGregor and will surely live up to everything the Money Fight hype train promised, but ultimately failed to deliver.
To Win Fight
Saul Alvarez 13/10 | Gennady Golovkin 6/10
Saul Alvarez
Since his majority decision loss at the hands of Floyd Mayweather, Alvarez has barely put a foot wrong, convincingly winning all seven of his subsequent fights. The most eye-catching of those victories came against the British duo of Liam Smith and Amir Khan.
Those two victories displayed just how much power the Mexican packs with Smith downed twice before a massive left hook to the body left him writhing on the canvas as the referee called an end to the match. Khan – despite making a decent start – was floored in the sixth after a massive overhand to the Bolton native’s jaw left him motionless on the deck, with very real concerns for his well-being in the 15-20 seconds he lay dead still under the T-Mobile Arena’s lights.
The Mexican only appears to be getting better with age and is slowly becoming the complete package. He’s an intelligent fighter who can draw on a wealth of knowledge within his camp. This comes in the form of father-and-son team Chepo and Eddy Reynoso who have trained Alvarez since he turned professional at the age of 15.
I don’t think Alvarez will be looking for a knockout here. He knows he’s the quicker fighter and will look to counter punch at every opportunity. He is likely to come forward, although just not as often as usual. He’ll be all too aware of the consequences should he get tagged on the jaw by Golovkin’s straight rights / right hooks.
Expect the Mexican to look for openings in GGG’s defence. He’ll likely keep his distance for the most part before unleashing quick, powerful combinations when he feels there’s an opening. If he fights with his head, he’ll win this fight on points – convincingly so.
Gennady Golovkin
GGG has been the shining star of the middleweight and super-middleweight divisions for as long as anyone can remember, boasting a perfect 37-0 record. That said, the Kazakh’s powers appear to be waning as he approaches his 36th birthday. As much was evidenced against American, Daniel Jacobs.
The American took Golovkin all the way in a fight that was much closer than just about anybody thought would be. Indeed, even Kell Brook caused GGG a few problems, however, the Kazakh’s immense punching power got him out of trouble after the Englishman suffered a fractured eye socket, forcing a corner stoppage in the fifth.
Jacobs was only the fourth fighter to go the distance with Golovkin who is the proud owner of a fearsome 89% knockout record. It’s worth noting that three of those four fights came early in his career when fighting over eight rounds.
That knockout percentage certainly speaks volumes about the power the Cossack possesses, however, he’s never really gone up against anyone with the guile and power of Alvarez. I foresee Golovkin’s lack of footwork being his downfall here. He generally tends to keep his feet planted in order to generate punch power. He comes forward slowly but surely and wears his opponents down landing a barrage of power shots to the head and body.
Against lesser fighters (no disrespect to any of his previous opponents, but Alvarez is a different class), he leads well with the jab in early rounds but tends to abandon the strategy for a more aggressive style. He’ll attempt land power shots to the body along with two or three punch combinations looking for the knockout.
I don’t foresee him significantly hurting Alvarez in the first three or four rounds as he’s done to fighters in the past, sending them into survival mode. Alvarez will be the fresher as they go into the later rounds and Golovkin knows this. Expect him to try and end this fight early.
Verdict: Alvarez 13/10
This is a tough one to call. If Canelo plays his cards right and fights the first six or seven rounds without getting caught too badly, he should easily win on points. He will look to take advantage of Golovkin’s lack of footwork and will back himself to stay out of the way of the Kazakh’s concussive blows, choosing to counter with quick, powerful combinations before backing off again.
Canelo to win for me at 13/10 is pretty good value! However, if you’re looking for a bit more, take the Mexican on the Fight Outcome (5 Way) market with Alvarez by decision of technical decision at 2/1.
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