Louis Oosthuizen returns this week as the PGA Tour makes its way to Caves Valley Golf CLub for the BMW Championship.
2021 US PGA Tour
FedEx Cup Playoffs
BMW Championship
Caves Valley Golf Club, Maryland
26th-29th August
The recent plague of PGA Tour implosions showed no sign of relenting at a dramatic Northern Trust last week. World Number One Jon Rahm seemed to be sauntering towards the title before plugging it in the bunker off the 15th tee. Cameron Smith then hit a tee shot as erratic as his mischievous mullet, virtually handing the victory to Tony Finau on the first playoff hole. But you can’t help but be pleased for the laconic Finau, who remarkably broke a title drought that stretches back to 2016. Seriously, Finau is perhaps the only man on the tour who can match Dustin Johnson’s air of causal indifference. The tour moves from New Jersey to Maryland for the 69-man BMW Championship (Patrick Reed has been forced to withdraw due to his shock bilateral interstitial pneumonia diagnosis). There will be no cut this week owing to the smaller field.
The BMW Championship is the penultimate FedEx Cup playoff event on the US PGA Tour schedule. Introduced in 2007, the BMW Championship was previously known as the Western Open. The Western Golf Association- which founded the Western Open- also runs the BMW Championship. This is a nomadic event that is far more sprawling than last week’s Northern Trust (which oscillates between the New York City area and Boston). Last year’s event was one of the highlights of the pandemic afflicted 2020 calendar. It boiled down to a real clash of the heavy-hitters, with Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson creating a spectacle of operatic proportions. Johnson made a whopping putt just to enforce the playoff. Not to be outdone, Rahm nailed an absolute monster putt to wrestle the tournament away from Johnson.
Caves Valley Golf Club is scheduled to host its first full PGA Tour level. Caves Valley has hosted two senior majors: the US Senior Open in 2002 and the Senior Players Championship in 2017. This is one of the most exclusive courses in America, with a membership limited to 600 high-profile whales. Designed by Tom Fazio and opened in 1991, the par-72 Caves Valley Golf Club looks like a beast at around 7,542 yards. That being said, it won’t necessarily play that length due to some elevation changes. The bentgrass greens are said to be lightning-fast this week. I would favour length over accuracy this week. Apparently, some of the recent alterations made to the course have left the short to mid hitting players more vulnerable to bunkers. The bigger hitters should be able to carry much of the trouble. Furthermore, the ryegrass rough is reported to be extra juicy this week. The bombers will find it much easier to hack their way out of that filth.
Jon Rahm will obviously enter this week’s event as the betting favourite. He will have a point to prove following his rather incongruous meltdown last week. Olympic Champion Xander Schauffele will also be a factor this week while Finau and Smith will look to continue their Northern Trust momentum. Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson will be keen to bounce back following their missed cuts last week. To be fair, Morikawa was struggling with a neck injury that may still prove a factor this week. DeChambeau and Koepka amazingly finished on the exact same score last week, finishing well down the pecking order at 8-under. DeChambeau seems subdued since returning from that covid diagnosis. The ten-pound weight loss has almost tarnished his alpha-dog aura. Louis Oosthuizen will return after a much-needed timeout last week.
Past Winners
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) *playoff
2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) *playoff
2017: Marc Leishman (-23)
2016: Dustin Johnson (-23)
To Win Outright:
Jon Rahm 13/2 | Xander Schauffele 13/2 | Justin Thomas 20/1 | Dustin Johnson 20/1 | Jordan Spieth 20/1
Value Bets
Louis Oosthuizen- To Win (28/1), To Place (6/1)
I know, I know. I’m either a masochist or the most patriotic South African ever. But outside of the names Rahm and Morikawa, Oosthuizen has arguably been the best player on tour this year. Louis will be heading into this event after a nice mental break. His tee-to-green game has been exceptional this season and I think that will be key to success around this course.
Charley Hoffman- To Win (100/1), To Place (22/1)
This week I’m opting for ‘bubble-boy’ Charley Hoffman. Hoffman is currently just sneaking qualification for East Lake at 29th in the FedEx Cup standings. I just have a feeling about Hoffman this week. He edged into the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings last week with a creditable T21 finish. He shot back-to-back 65’s in the middle rounds before a 71 in the delayed 4th round. As I noted earlier, this course should suit the bombers. Hoffman is currently 27th on tour in Driving Distance. He has finished inside the top 25 nine times in his last twelve starts on American soil. That’s remarkable consistency. That includes a 2nd at the Texas Open and a 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge. You have to love him in the place markets at 22/1.
The Man to Beat- Xander Schauffele- To Win 13/2 | To Place 14/10
I’m actually opting for the joint-favourite this week: Xander Schauffele. He is just a man ready-made for this challenge: he thrives in limited field events with no cuts. Three of his four wins on tour have come in limited field events with no cuts. He also recently won Olympic gold in a limited-field event. He would have also won last year’s Tour Championship were it not for the staggered field start. He is just a perennial presence in these later stages of the year and his combination of power and accuracy should make him ideal for this layout.
