DeChambeau out to defend US Open title

This promises to be an enthralling week in California. First staged in 1895, the inaugural US Open was won by Englishman Horace Rawlins. It is organized by the oft-maligned USGA, known for their sadistic tendencies when setting up a course. It almost feels sacrilegious to compete for a Major Championship at Torrey Pines without the indomitable Tiger Woods. Woods is a seven-time Farmers Insurance Champion who has utterly dominated the South Course throughout his career. He memorably won this event when last staged at the South Course in 2008. His characteristic grit was never more evident than when he defied stress fractures in his left leg to see off Rocco Mediate. To this day it remains one of the most enduring images of courage that I have seen in any sporting arena. Despite his absence, there are a veritable smorgasbord of fascinating subplots surrounding this year’s Championship. But first, let’s have a look at this masterpiece of a golf course.

Designed by Billy Bell Jr and opened in 1957, the South Course is a familiar venue that traditionally plays host to the Farmers Insurance Open (along with the adjoining North Course). Rees Jones has been up to his tricks once again, tinkering with Torrey Pines ahead of this year’s event. His latest revamp has turned this behemoth into an even longer test. Driving distance will prove vital this week. The fairways will be narrower this year while the rough will be thicker. The immediate impulse is to favour the more accurate hitters. But I think you will find it’s the guys who get the ball down there who will prevail. Everyone will find the rough at various times this week. The reason Bryson won last year at Winged Foot had nothing to do with accuracy (he hit a staggering 22 fairways all week). He just had that ball closer to the green when out of position. The USGA will offer a similarly fast, punitive test this week. I just think the bigger hitters have the advantage of hitting a 9-iron when they find the rough (or pitching wedge). As with any Major Championship, scrambling could prove a vital stat this week. The poa Annua greens are tricky, with vicious runoff areas. Players will need to rely on crazy touch if they wish to succeed.

Phil Mickelson would have been forgiven for thinking his chance of capturing the career Grand Slam had left him. ‘Lefty’ has finished runner-up in this event on a remarkable six occasions. But he will feel emboldened this year by his barely believable victory at Kiawah. To keep Grand Slam beasts such as Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen at bay must rank amongst the finest achievements of his career. A victory for Jon Rahm this week would also provide a true fairy-tale ending. He played some sensational golf before having to withdraw from the Memorial due to a positive Covid test. The burly Spaniard’s first PGA Victory came at Torrey Pines and he must be considered a serious contender this week. Defending US Open Champion Bryson DeChambeau will once again look to pummel a US Open layout into submission.

There are a few sleeping giants to consider this week. Justin Thomas has been somewhat quiet since his heroics at Sawgrass. Brooks Koepka is a two-time US Open Champion who finished runner-up at yet another Major Championship at the Ocean Course. Xander Schauffele is surely a second away from capturing his maiden Grand Slam. He just needs to hold his composure over the final nine holes of these big occasions (he will feel slightly traumatized after the events at Augusta earlier this year). What about Rory? The 2011 Champion won at Colonial earlier this year but flattered to deceive upon his return to the Ocean Course.

Past Winners

2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
2016: Dustin Johnson (-4)
2015: Jordan Spieth (-5)
2014: Martin Kaymer (-9)
2013: Justin Rose (+1)
2012: Webb Simpson (+1)
2011: Rory McIlroy (-16)

To Win Outright:

Jon Rahm: 9/1
Dustin Johnson: 16/1
Xander Schauffele: 18/1
Bryson DeChambeau: 18/1
Brooks Koepka: 20/1
Jordan Spieth: 20/1

Value Bets

Patrick Reed: To Win 30/1 | To Place 6/1

Reed has become a perennial contender in big events and he looked impressive when last seen at the Memorial- he ultimately finished 5th. He is one of those guys who tends to thrive when the USGA gets all diabolical. He has four top 15 US Open finishes in his last six starts. Even more enticing is the fact that he won at Torrey Pines earlier this year. This could mean very little as the rough will be juicer and conditions firmer on this occasion. Reed is perhaps a slightly counterintuitive pick this week: he isn’t a bomber. But he has the ability to make up for that around the green. The former Augusta Champ hasn’t lost strokes around the green since March.

Matt Wallace: To Win 150/1 | To Place 30/1

I’m opting for Englishman Matt Wallace in the longshot stakes. This won’t be the first time I have played him this year. He has a game that should be suited to Torrey Pines (though this will be his debut here). He is averaging 0.22 SG: Off-the-Tee and 0.78 SG: Tee-to-Green. He is also 19th on tour in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards. He has made the cut in each of his last eight Majors, including a T12 at another Californian institution: Pebble Beach. His long irons are exceptional and he should be able to handle the thick rough encountered this week.

The Man to Beat

Xander Schauffele- To Win (18/1), To Place (16/10)

San Diego native Xander Schauffele has outstanding US Open form leading into this year’s event. Form figures of 5-6-3-5 highlight his suitability for these arduous endurance tests. His gorgeous long iron-play is a real assist on these beasts. He has a runner-up at Torrey Pines this year and he probably should have won his first Major at Augusta earlier this year. He also topped the GIR count during his T11 at the Memorial last time out. I just feel that it’s sooner rather than later for this ultra-talented player. He possesses the temperament to accept ‘good’ bogeys on these layouts.