Our golf scribe gives his tips for this weeks headline golf event, the Deutsche Bank Open.
We were a couple missed putts away from landing a massive payday last week, but my faith in Emiliano Grillo paid off with a decent each-way result. I’ll look to build on that this week as we head to the TPC Boston for the second event of the season-ending FedEx Cup playoffs.
Running every year over the Labour Day weekend, this event starts a day later in the week, so there’s plenty of time to get those bets on. There’s still 100-strong in the field, so prices remain pretty decent and there should be some value to be found.
The Arnold Palmer-designed course will play very differently to the one players experienced at Bethpage Black last week. Having undergone a redesign prior to the launch of the FedEx Cup in 2007, the course will produce a fair contest for the players, with a great mix of holes mixture of holes, from long par-5s to drivable par-4s.
Key to victory here is a demon short game, so Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Putting are the two key stats this week. A good previous record on bent grass greens won’t harm your chances either.
Deutsche Bank Championship | Thursday 1 September – Sunday 4 September | TPC Boston
Previous Winners
2015 Rickie Fowler -15 | 2014 Chris Kirk -15 | 2013 Henrik Stenson -22 | 2012 Rory McIlroy -20 | 2011 Webb Simpson -15 (playoff)
Betting Odds
Jason Day 7/1 | Dustin Johnson 12/1 | Rory McIlroy 14/1 | Jordan Spieth 14/1 | Henrik Stenson 18/1 | Adam Scott 25/1
Value Bets
Rickie Fowler (30/1 Win & 66/10 Place)
It looked for all money like Fowler would pick up his first victory of 2016 at The Barclays before a blowout – bogey at 15, double at 16 and bogey at 18 – dropped him into a tie for 7th. It was a cruel twist for Fowler, who is yet to secure his place on the US Ryder Cup team. He’s the defending champion here, having chased down Henrik Stenson to win here last year. He’s one of the best scramblers around and if he can get his putter running hot, you can expect him to put last week’s disappointment behind him with a strong showing here.
Daniel Berger (80/1 Win & 18/1 Place)
Berger is a player I’ve always fancied without ever placing any real faith in him. However, I’m willing to give him a chance this week. He was in contention last season at TPC Boston but shot a final round 73 to finish just outside the Top 10. He may have struggled over the weekend at Bethpage Black last week, but a T5 at The Travelers in his previous start included a 62 in the third round. He has the ability to go low and looks to have some decent value about him at 80/1 for the win.
Charley Hoffman (70/1 Win & 15/1 Place)
I had to include one familiar face in my lineup and I’ve opted for Hoffman. An undoubted “horse for the course” this week, Hoffman has some pretty decent form about him at present. He’s coming off a T25 at the Travelers and a T13 last week at The Barclays, where he might’ve contended were it not for a third round 74. Hoffman won this event in 2010 and finished T3 last year after a blistering start. He’s a bit too short in the first round leader market, but he’s worth chancing each-way at 70/1 for the win.
Best Bet
Jordan Spieth (14/1 Win & 3/1 Place)
It’s been a long time since I’ve included Spieth in my selections. In fact, not since the Masters meltdown has he been considered. It’s been a ploy that has proved wise, because he has struggled for most of the season. However, last week he seemed to have turned a corner, especially with his iron play. He ranked eighth in strokes gained approaching the green and tied for sixth in greens in regulation at the Barclays. If he can bring that iron play to TPC Boston, he’ll be right in contention. Five of his career victories have come on bent grass greens, and I’m backing him to make it six this weekend.
Written by Commodore Vegas for @Hollywoodbets.
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