PREVIEW: 2022 DP World Tour – Portugal Masters

2021/2022 DP World Tour
Portugal Masters
Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal
27th-30th October

I nailed last week’s US PGA event in South Carolina (though picking McIlroy to win in a given week hardly deserves Nostradamus status). Ryan Fox never quite came through for the win in Mallorca.

But he at least placed in what was another pretty successful weekend for yours truly. This week’s Portugal Masters is really make-or-break time for many of the professionals.

This is the last full-field event of the DP World Tour season and players in two specific bubbles will be desperate for results this week. The upper echelon of players will be clamouring to get into the top 60 ahead of the Nedbank Golf Challenge.

The players hovering around the 120 mark will be even more desperate for success to secure their DP World Tour playing privileges. Needless to say, this is a pivotal weekend for the fortunes of many a European player.

This event was first staged in 2007 and was won by Englishman Steve Webster.

Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course

This has become a fixture on the tour, and this will be the 16th consecutive renewal hosted at Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course. The Arnold Palmer-designed course is an exposed, expansive track.

The wide, generous fairways and large bentgrass greens make this something of turkey shoot for the pros. It often devolves into a bit of a putting contest (as evidenced by George Coetzee’s triumph in 2020). And I would favour distance slightly over accuracy this week (as evidenced by Pieters’ triumph last year).

Oliver Wilson memorably shot a 59 here in 2018. They attempted to address this before the 2019 edition, fortifying the rough with a tougher Bermuda strain. But it’s still there for the taking and players simply need to go low this week.

The Contenders

Robert Macintyre has been a bastion of consistency since tasting success at last month’s Italian Open. One would think that his tremendous short game should make him a prime candidate for this title (despite poor course form).

Another man with poor course form but strong current form is Englishman Jordan Smith. Yannik Paul has been improving of late and almost shot a sensational 59 in last week’s Mallorca Open.

Elsewhere, course specialists such as Andy Sullivan and Tom Lewis have to be considered. This should be a thrilling week of action as the DP World Tour approaches its maiden crescendo.

Past Winners

2021: Thomas Pieters (-19)
2020: George Coetzee (-16)
2019: Steven Brown (-17)
2018: Tom Lewis (-22)
2017: Lucas Bjerregaard (-20)

To Win Outright:

Robert Macintyre 14/1 | Jordan Smith 16/1 | Victor Perez 18/1 | Antoine Rozner 20/1 | Yannik Paul 20/1

Value Bets

Thorbjorn Olesen- To Win 28/1 | To Place 6/1

Olesen received a massive boost in his redemptive arc with that British Masters victory earlier this year. He has been ever so slightly underwhelming since then. He finished 20th at the Open de France and 21st at Valderrama. But he will feel confident about performing better in what is quite a low-grade field this week. His length off the tee should be a massive advantage on this exposed layout.

Tom Lewis- To Win 55/1 | To Place 12/1

Tom Lewis currently sits 152nd in the DP World Tour rankings and needs a strong week to secure his playing rights for next season. He struggled on the PGA Tour since finishing runner-up at the 2020 WGC-Fed Ex St Jude Invitational. He was plodding his way around the Korn Ferry tour before returning to Europe with a 13th at the Czech Masters. He also picked up 12th and 16th place finishes at Himmerland and the Italian Open respectively. So, there have been glimpses of his best golf. And surely Dom Pedro is the place for his best golf to thrive: he has won this event twice.

The Man to Beat- Andy Sullivan- To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2

25/1 looks a great price for a proven DP World Tour winner who won this very event by nine shots in 2015. He almost defended his title in 2016, missing out by a shot to the legendary Padraig Harrington. Sullivan loves low-scoring events where he can let his putter do the talking. His fourth DP World Tour title came with a 27-under-par total at Hanbury Manor. And he has been showing real signs of improvement over the last three months. He finished eighth at the Cazoo Classic before a third place at the Cazoo Open. He also set the early pace at the BMW PGA Championship. He finished 16th last week and just needs that putter to heat up.