PGA Tour: 2021 Northern Trust Open

Formerly known as the Barclays, the Northern Trust is a tournament that rotates between the New York City and Boston area. God, can you imagine how the Bryson-Brooks saga is going to play out with this boisterous crowd? But I digress. Since 2007, it has been used as the opening leg of the play-off system for the FedEx Cup. The FedEx Cup playoffs were originally contested over four events, though in 2019 the Tour made the wise decision to condense the program to three events. The top 125 players will be whittled down to 70 ahead of next week’s BMW Championship. Americans have dominated this event in recent years, winning the last five editions of the Northern Trust Open. That includes two victories for defending champion Dustin Johnson. This year we head to Sopranos country, with New Jersey’s Liberty National playing host to the Northern Trust.

We last saw Liberty National when it hosted this event in 2019 (it was won by Captain America himself, Patrick Reed). It also played host to the President’s Cup in 2017 (where America gave the Europeans a proper beating). Set on an exposed piece of land on the Jersey side of the Hudson, Liberty National is a coastal course that will be susceptible to wind. Designed by Bob Cupp and Tom Kite, this has proven a pretty decent examination in recent times. It is a lengthy par 71 at just over 7,400 yards. But stats actually seem to favour accuracy off the tee in recent times. The last three winners at Liberty National have been Reed, Scott and Slocum. None of these guys are particularly explosive off the tee. Players need to find fairways to position themselves to hit greens. Approaches from off the fairway here will be extremely difficult. Furthermore, these slick bentgrass greens will also require a fair bit of touch with the short-stick.

Collin Morikawa will enter this week as the FedEx Cup leader. It is really anyone’s game at this point (the winner of this week’s event awarded a mammoth 2000 FedEx Cup points). I’m still not quite sure if they have really nailed the correct scoring system. World Number One Jon Rahm will have a point to prove after his heart-breaking withdrawal from the Olympic Games. As I noted earlier, much of the hoopla this week will surround the Koepka-DeChambeau fiasco. These crowds are notoriously rowdy and in various stages of inebriation over the course of the weekend. Will the players look to feed off the baying crowd or escape into their inner sanctums? DeChambeau has looked rattled in recent weeks and I think that Koepka has the edge with the populace. Elsewhere, the likes of McIlroy and Spieth will no doubt generate their own levels of crowd hysteria. Maybe I should just stop being negative and focus on all the talent on display this week.

Past Winners

2020: Dustin Johnson (-30)
2019: Patrick Reed (-16)
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
2017: Dustin Johnson (-13) *playoff
2016: Patrick Reed (-9)

To Win Match:

Jon Rahm 10/1
Jordan Spieth 16/1
Dustin Johnson 18/1
Collin Morikawa 18/1
Xander Schauffele 20/1

Value Bets

Abraham Ancer- To Win 35/1 | To Place 15/2

I simply have to go with Ancer this week. A tee-to-green machine, the deadly accurate Mexican is coming into this event fresh off his maiden victory at the elite-level WGC ST. Jude Invitational. But beyond that, his form has been exceptional for some time. He has four top-five finishes in his last nine outings. Just to add a little more sex appeal to this choice, Ancer finished runner-up to Reed at Liberty National Golf Club in 2019. This just seems like a no-brainer to me.

Adam Scott- To Win 45/1 | To Place 19/2

Yes, I know. How could I possibly opt for Scott following last week’s debacle? He missed a gilt-edged 4-foot chance to ignite what has been a pretty underwhelming campaign. Having said that, his tee-to-green game looked elite last week. This week’s test is once again made for the more accurate types. Furthermore, there are few players who could boast a better Liberty record than Aussie Scott. He won here in 2013 and finished solo 5th two years back. Perhaps his brush with contention last week will reignite that competitive drive.

The Man to Beat- Scottie Scheffler- To Win 33/1 | To Place 7/1

Scottie Scheffler seems to stack up very nicely for this week’s test. Just look at his results his season. He was 7th at the Waste Management, 5th at the WGC Workday Championship, runner-up at the WGC Dell Matchplay, 8th at the PGA Championship, 3rd at the Memorial, 7th at the US Open, 8th at the Open Championship and 14th at the WGC ST Jude. The 25-year-old is a Jersey native and he currently sits 1000 points behind Tony Finau in the Ryder Cup equation. That should give him plenty of motivation for a strong late-season surge. He currently sits 17th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 4th in Birdie Average. He also strikes me as a fairly unflappable character, able to withstand the boorish barrage that players will likely encounter this week.