A somewhat weakened field will take to TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Classic this week with many big names choosing to rest up before next week’s US Open.
Originally known as the Memphis Open, the FedEx St Jude Classic has been around since 1958, with this year’s being the 61st edition of this event. This will also be the 30th time that TPC Southwind has played host to the competition, and the 11th consecutive time that it occurs a week prior to the year’s second Major: the US Open.
That will all change next year however, as the event will replace the WGC Bridgestone Invitational and will likely move to later in the calendar. The event will still take place at Southwind though, which is regarded as a fearsome test for the professionals.
FedEx St Jude Classic | 7 June -10 June | TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee
Designed by Ron Pritchard in consultation with Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green, Southwind was opened in 1988 and has always provided a stern test. This was amplified by a remodelling in 2004 that saw the addition of 125 trees and 15 new bunkers. The Zoysia fairways were re-contoured and narrowed, while 200 yards were added to the overall length. The smaller than average Bentgrass greens were also changed to Bermuda. Of the last eight winners, only Ben Crane ranked outside the top ten for GIR. Scrambling may also prove a key stat with the small, tricky greens.
With the US Open taking place next week its little wonder that many of the world’s top players are taking a break this week. Recently displaced World Number One Dustin Johnson has certainly shown signs that his game could be approaching the level needed to compete for Major titles again. Current US Open Champion Brooks Koepka has returned from an injury hiatus with a bang while Daniel Berger is looking to make it an amazing thirrd consecutive St Jude Classic.
Past Winners
2017: Daniel Berger (-10)
2016: Daniel Berger (-13)
2015: Fabian Gomez (-13)
2014: Ben Crane (-10)
2013: Harris English (-12)
To Win Outright
Dustin Johnson 15/2 | Brooks Koepka 9/1 | Phil Mickelson 14/1 | Henrik Stenson 16/1 | Daniel Berger 28/1
Value Bets
Joaquin Niemann- To Win 40/1, To Place 17/2
It has been quite the ride for the young Chilean since turning professional as recently as April. Niemann was right in contention at Memorial until an uneventful final round 73 put pay to any possibility of a debut victory in Ohio. Yet just one look at his form shows how successful his transition to professionalism has been. He has three top eight finishes in five career starts, including that sixth place last week. The Chilean was third in GIR last week at a staggering 78%. That stat has proved critical before and adds to my general feeling that he could have yet another great showing this week.
Charles Howell III- To Win 45/1, To Place 19/2
Howell III is a case where the stats tend to mystify. How is it that he hasn’t won on tour since 2007? He ranks inside the top 50 statistically for four major metrics: Par 4 scoring (15th), Par 4 Birdies (35th), Scrambling (30th), GIR (30th). Putting has clearly been his issue over time, though his consistency this year has been remarkable. He has finished inside the top 25 in 13 of his last 20 starts. That represents a remarkable 65% top 25 rate. He has had five top 10’s and recently finished fourth at the Byron Nelson.
Ben Crane- To Win 90/1, To Place 19/1
Looking outside of the upper echelons of the outright market, you could do a lot worse than five-time PGA Tour winner Ben Crane. The 2014 Champion will clearly look to benefit from a field that is somewhat diminished in anticipation of next week’s US Open. Crane won this event in 2014 and finished in a tie for 10th last year. He is also in decent form, having last been cut at Pebble Beach. He has also racked up two excellent recent finishes: he finished in a tie for 11th at the Valero Texas Open and just finished in a tie for eighth at the Fort Worth Invitational.
The Man to Beat- Brooks Koepka- To Win 9/1, To Place 39/20
Though the odds of 9/1 do look rather short for a man only a month back from a three month layoff, the trend since his return has been astonishing. He was cut at the Zurich Classic on his return only to follow that up with a T42 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He then had a hugely encouraging tie for 11th at the Players. Then he finished runner-up at the Fort Worth Invitational in his last appearance. Just to illustrate how well he has been playing, Koepka has shot 63 in three of his last five rounds. Koepka has course figures here of 19-3-2-37 and will feel buoyed a week ahead of his US Open defence at Shinnecock Hills.
Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.net
You must be logged in to post a comment Login