PREVIEW: 2022 PGA Tour – BMW Championship

2021/2022 PGA Tour
BMW Championship
The South Course, Wilmington Country Club, Wilmington, Delaware
18th-21st August

Cam Smith off to LIV Golf?

I had an absolute blinder at TPC Southwind last week. Will Zalatoris came through a dramatic playoff to claim his maiden US PGA Tour title. Sepp Straka just couldn’t handle the pressure when he needed to hit a routine approach at the par 3 11th.

Not only that, Matthew Fitzpatrick also picked up a top 10 that saw two of my picks prosper. But it was arguably Cam Smith who created the most headlines last week.

He has obviously been linked heavily with a proposed 140 million dollar move to LIV Golf. He played it coy last week when asked about the proposals and he was heavily in contention at the 54-hole mark.

But Smith received a two-shot penalty overnight for an improper ball drop. This seemed to rattle the Aussie as he faded away on Sunday. Smith- currently ranked 3rd in the FedEx Cup ratings- has opted to swerve this week’s event due to an apparent hip injury.

Could East Lake be the last time we see Smith on the PGA Tour in the immediate future?

BMW Championship

In any event, this week’s BMW Championship will be the 2nd leg of the US PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. It was actually introduced in 2007 as the 3rd leg of the original FedEx Cup Playoff series.

The format of the series changed in 2019, wisely shortening the Playoffs to three events. The BMW Championship is restricted to the final 70 in the FedEx Cup standings and only Cam Smith and Tommy Fleetwood are electing to sit out this week.

Fleetwood’s decision is quite bizarre as it guarantees he won’t compete at East Lake. There will be no 36-hole cut in this event, meaning all 68 players will play the four rounds.

The South Course at Wilmington Country Club

The BMW Championship is a nomadic event that moves to a new course each season. The South Course at Wilmington Country Club will be this year’s rather mysterious host course.

This is a Robert Jones Sr track that can measure over 7,500 yards. It is a tree-lined parkland affair with rather generous bentgrass fairways. I would tend to favour the bigger hitters this week due to the width of the fairways.

But I think it’s on the green complexes where this event could be decided. These are massive, undulating bentgrass greens that will run at around 12.5 on the stimp.

Look for guys who can putt and scramble brilliantly (there may actually be a slight Augusta connection here too). But I think it’s probably best to just look at guys coming into this event in decent form.

Sure, Sepp Straka came from nowhere to compete last week. But these closing FedEx Cup events do tend to gravitate toward the red-hot players in the field.

The Contenders

Despite a missed cut in Memphis, Rory McIlroy still leads the markets this week. To be fair, everything about this course screams Rory. He loves low-scoring tournaments with generous fairways. But could he still be feeling the side-effects of that St Andrews disappointment?

Former champ Jon Rahm seemed to recapture some magic this week and he may be peaking at the right time of the year. World No.1 Scottie Scheffler also missed the cut last week and will be desperate to reassert himself as the world’s leading player.

But when it comes to form you can’t look past Tony Finau. He was right in the mix to make it three consecutive wins at TPC Southwind.

Nonetheless, his T5 finish made it three consecutive top 5 finishes for the lanky American. This course looks like it could suit Finau’s combination of big hitting and beautiful touch.

Past Winners

2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) *playoff
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) *playoff
2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) *playoff
2017: Marc Leishman (-23)

To Win Outright:

Rory McIlroy 10/1 | Jon Rahm 14/1 | Scottie Scheffler 14/1 | Justin Thomas 16/1 | Patrick Cantlay 16/1

Value Bets

Sungjae Im- To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2

Sungjae Im is a player in fine form who just looks irresistible at 25/1. He finished runner-up at both the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship. He followed that up with a decent 12th last week (which included a sensational Saturday 63). Im is an ultra-consistent ball-striker who ranks ninth on tour in three key metrics: tee-to-green, off-the-tee and GIR. He is hovering just outside the top 10 of the rankings and a big week will really boost his chances of a backdoor FedEx Cup title push.

Sahith Theegala- To Win 75/1 | To Place 16/1

Sahith Theegala started with a brilliant 63 last week before fading somewhat over the weekend. Still, his T13 helped him nestle into 28th in the current FedEx Cup rankings. He will be supermotivated to make his maiden appearance at East Lake. He picked up a runner-up finish at the Travellers and a third at the Waste Management Open. He was 11th last week for SG: Off the Tee and I think he will make a great bet in the place markets.

The Man to Beat- Cameron Young- To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2

Cameron Young is coming off a pretty disappointing T31 at TPC Southwind. But let’s put that into context. He was second behind winner Zalatoris in strokes off the tee and on approach. But he lost five and a half strokes with the flat stick. That’s unusual for such a solid putter. The probable Rookie of the Year just needs to improve his putting to get into the mix this week. He absolutely smashes it down the fairway and he has been in blistering form of late. Young has finished inside the top 3 in five of his last nine events. This included a runner-up finish at the Open and a T3 at the US PGA Championship. He could take some inspiration from Zalatoris and capture his maiden US PGA Tour title.