PREVIEW: 2022 PGA Tour – Valero Texas Open

2021/2022 US PGA Tour
Valero Texas Open
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas
31st March- 3rd April

The calm before Augusta National

We need to take a moment to applaud the achievements of newly minted World Number One Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old shattered Tiger Woods’ longstanding record for fewest days between a maiden victory and reaching the World Number spot.

Woods’ previous record of 252 days has been whittled down to a paltry 42 by Scheffler. Scheffler has won three of his last five titles and looks absolutely primed for a tilt at the Augusta title.

I will also take this time to pat myself on the back for Kevin Kisner’s further WGC Match-Play heroics.

This week the tour takes a collective breath before next week’s Augusta melodrama. Many of the top contenders have understandably taken the opportunity to rest ahead of the year’s first Major.

But I’m pleasantly surprised by the quality of the field, with some of golf’s biggest stars aiming to do some finetuning this week.

One of the oldest events on Tour

The Valero Texas Open was first staged in 1922 and is one of the oldest events on the entire PGA Tour. In fact, it is the sixth oldest professional golf tournament worldwide.

It has always been held in the San Antonio area. The event has lost a little lustre over the past 15 years. It was first demoted to the Fall Series and was played as an opposite event to both the President’s Cup and Ryder Cup.

The event then moved to a week after the Masters. It started to regain a bit more credibility when it was moved to the week immediately preceding the Masters.

This has seen an increase in the number of players attempting to hone their game ahead of Augusta. The event was a fixture at La Cantera Golf Club between 1995 and 2009 before switching to current host venue TPC San Antonio.

It was cancelled due to the pandemic in 2020, making this the 12th renewal staged at TPC San Antonio.

TPC San Antonio to provide stern test

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio was designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2010. Fellow Aussie Adam Scott actually won the inaugural staging of this event.

This Bermuda layout can prove pretty tricky if the wind gets up. But the early forecast doesn’t seem to suggest much in the way of heavy wind. While driving distance and accuracy aren’t of primary importance here, there are a plethora of fairway bunkers that can prove tough to get out of.

Players would probably rather hit it from the rough than these taxing sand dunes. They will also need to play well from the sand in and around the greens.

Sand save percentage could be a good stat to look at this week. But recent renewals seem to suggest that GIR and putting will prove most critical this week (especially with benign conditions expected).

Rory to struggle again despite favourite tag?

Rory McIlroy has just been nowhere with his game of late and he needs some positive juju ahead of yet another career Grand Slam attempt at Augusta.

Defending champion Jordan Spieth is a Texas native who is always a factor leading into Augusta. His game seems perfectly suited to the demands of this course and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him in the mix come Sunday (even if he is still adapting to major swing changes).

Accurate types such as Abraham Ancer and Corey Conners could also thrive this week. It will be interesting to see how hard defending Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama goes this week.

That is one of the difficulties about speculating about this event. Some players might be in experimentation mode and could use this as little more than a glorified practice session.

Sidenote: could we actually see Tiger at Augusta this year? Speculation is rife after the golfing icon was seen playing at a practice round at Augusta this week. That could make this year’s Masters the sporting event of the year.

Past Winners

2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
2020: no event due to Covid
2019: Corey Conners (-20)
2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)

To Win Outright:

Rory McIlroy 8/1 | Jordan Spieth 14/1 | Corey Conners 18/1 | Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 | Bryson DeChambeau 20/1

Value Bets

Brendan Steele- To Win 66/1 | To Place 14/1

This is a pattern with all my choices this week. History has proven to be a strong determining factor in this event. Defending champion Jordan Spieth is also a former runner-up in this event. Charley Hoffman has been dominant at TPC San Antonio. Kevin Chappell won in 2017 and finished 4th 12 months later. This trend could continue with Brendan Steele. He won the event in 2011 and followed that up with a 4th 12 months later. He also finished 8th here in 2013. After a run of five missed cuts, Steele picked up a vastly improved T26 at the Arnold Palmer. He improved further with a T13 at TPC Sawgrass. He just needs his putter to fire and he could really contend in this field.

Charley Hoffman- To Win (70/1), To Place (15/1)

Charley Hoffman is the ultimate ‘horses for courses’ choice. This just seems to be the time of year when we see Hoffman at his best. He is a short game wizard who always seems to find something at both TPC San Antonio and Augusta. He has been extremely unlucky here in recent years, finishing runner-up in the last two renewals. He won the title in 2016 and finished joint runner-up in 2011. In fact, he has only finished outside the top 15 twice in 11 appearances at this event. He looks like great value at 70/1.

The Man to Beat- Corey Conners- To Win 18/1 | To Place 39/10

I just have to back Conners this week after his 3rd place finish at last week’s WGC Match-Play. Conners just makes the most sense in the upper reaches of the market. Spieth is still wrestling with his swing while McIlroy hasn’t got nearly enough consistency. DeChambeau looked really undercooked last week and Matsuyama may have one eye on next week’s Major title defence. Conners won the title here in 2019 and his consistent ball striking makes him an ideal candidate for success this week. Conners has gained the most strokes per round on this course in this week’s field.