PREVIEW: 2023 PGA Tour – AT&T Byron Nelson Classic

2022/2023 US PGA Tour
AT&T Byron Nelson Classic
TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas
11th-14th May

It took five long years, but Wyndham Clark broke his PGA Tour title duck in some style last week. He held off a charging Xander Schauffele with ease, picking up a huge winner’s cheque at one of the newly envisaged designated events.

The tour will move to the Lone Star State for one last stop before next week’s US PGA Championship.

AT&T Byron Nelson Classic

Originally known as the Dallas Open, the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic has one of the most decorated champion’s rosters in all of golf. The tournament’s namesake- Byron Nelson- won the first edition of this event back in 1944.

Sam Snead and Ben Hogan would then win the next two editions of the event. Subsequent winners of this event include Nicklaus, Watson, Woods and Els. That’s just a sample of some of the heavy hitters who have tasted success here.

But the switch to TPC Four Seasons went a long way to diminish the popularity of the event, with many of the top pros openly hating the course. The tournament switched to Trinity Forest in 2018 and settled on TPC Craig Ranch last year.

TPC Craig Ranch

Designed by Tom Weiskopf, TPC Craig Ranch was opened in 2004. This is really a course that should help impart confidence ahead of Oak Hill Country Club.

The course features minimal rough and wide Zoysiagrass fairways. The Bentgrass greens only measure 11.5 on the stimp (you can’t have them too quick with the traditional Texas gusts around). Rowlett Creek is perhaps one natural defence that the course has.

The pros have absolutely destroyed this event since its switch to TPC Craig Ranch. As with most birdie fests, hitting greens and making putts will be of paramount importance. That’s probably the reason why all the champions here have been outliers.

It’s harder to accurately pinpoint success on such a gettable course (all you need is a hot putter to get in the mix). There has been a slight alteration this year, with the par 5 12th converted back to a long par 4.

The Contenders

World No.2 Scottie Scheffler leads a slightly depleted field this year. The presence of all the designated events means that undesignated outings such as these will now be used for rest by many of the top guys. Scheffler hasn’t played in nearly a month and will be keen to get some positivity in his game.

Texan favourite Jordan Spieth has been forced to withdraw from the event due to a wrist issue. In fact, reports suggest that it could rule him out of next week’s US PGA Championship (and scupper his chance of completing the career Grand Slam).

Elsewhere, the likes of Tyrell Hatton and Hideki Matsuyama leap off the page. And let’s not forget a certain Kyoung-Hoon Lee. He will be confident of securing one of the most unlikely three-peats in memory, bringing a combined total of 51-under par from his previous two victories.

Past Winners

2022: KH Lee (-26)
2021: KH Lee (-25)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Sung-Hoon Kang (-23)
2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
2017: Billy Horschel (-12) *playoff
2016: Sergio Garcia (-15) *playoff

To Win Outright:

Scottie Scheffler 4/1 | Tyrell Hatton 14/1 | Jason Day 16/1 | Tom Kim 18/1 | Hideki Matsuyama 22/1

Value Bets

Tom Hoge- To Win 45/1

Tom Hoge looks like brilliant value at 45/1 (especially in such a depleted field). He has been extremely consistent this season, picking up four top-10 and eight top-25 finishes. That included an exceptional T3 at the Players. He finished T17 in last year’s edition and hasn’t teed it up since the Zurich. And he just looks to make statistical sense this week. A wizard with the irons, Hoge currently ranks 1st on Tour for Proximity. This should prove a vital stat in a week littered with birdies.

J.J. Spaun- To Win 50/1

J.J. Spaun knows what it takes to win in Texas, claiming the Texas Open just a year ago. He finished T9 at this year’s WGC Match-Play and T22 at the Texas Open. And his form seems to be coming back to its best. He just finished T27 at the Wells Fargo Championship. Crucially, he gained about four strokes on approach at Quail Hollow (which could prove vital this week). I think he just needs to run hot on the greens and he could contend again.

The Man to Beat- Kyoung-Hoon Lee- To Win 25/1

As I noted earlier, Kyoung-Hoon Lee has played his last eight rounds at TPC Craig Ranch in 51-under-par. And he won both his titles here playing against much stronger fields than this. Lee just has a game perfectly tailored for this test. He has also run into some decent form after an indifferent start to the season. He finished inside the top 25 in three of his last four events (including a T23 at the Masters). He finished in a tie for 8th at Quail Hollow and clearly seems to be in fine nick.