PREVIEW: 2023 PGA Tour – RBC Heritage

2022/2023 US PGA Tour
RBC Heritage
Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina
13th-16th April

The ongoing feud between the US PGA Tour and LIV came to a head as Jon Rahm battled Brooks Koepka in Sunday’s final group at Augusta National. And Koepka’s rampant capitulation certainly does open the door for jokes about LIV’s abbreviated 54-hole format.

But Phil Mickelson counterbalanced that with a performance for the ages, shooting a 65 on Sunday to finish solo 2nd at the age of 52. To put that into context: that was the lowest that ‘Lefty’ has ever gone in a final round at Augusta National.

I just want to push back slightly on this narrative that it was a brilliant week for Greg Norman and LIV Golf. Yes, it was a reminder of the fact that we are deprived of some high-calibre talent by LIV.

But I don’t really see how it moves the needle in terms of interest in LIV’s woefully misjudged team approach. But the ‘good guys’ ultimately prevailed. Jon Rahm claimed his second Major Championship and first Green Jacket, becoming the first European player in history to win both the Masters and US Open.

RBC Heritage

This event usually presents players with the opportunity to decompress following the vagaries of Augusta National. But the event has been granted elevated status in line with the PGA Tour’s initiative to get the stars together more often (an obvious response to LIV Golf).

This means that what was traditionally a nice post-Major sojourn is all of a sudden an elite-field week with 20 million dollars on the line for the field.

Masters champ Jon Rahm heads a star-studded field that gives this tournament an entirely different feel (it’s hard to see three-time champion Stewart Cink winning this year).

Arnold Palmer won the inaugural staging of this event in 1969 and this will be the 55th edition of the tournament. And this is one of those rare events that has been hosted at one venue since its inception. And that venue is the polar opposite of last week’s sprawling test at Augusta National.

Harbour Town Golf Links – Hilton Head

Hilton Head is the brainchild of TPC Sawgrass architect Pete Dye. Assisted by Jack Nicklaus, Hilton Head is a far more claustrophobic layout than Augusta.

I wouldn’t call the fairways super narrow. But they often require players to find the correct portion in order to attack the greens. A lot has been made of the fact that accuracy is more important than distance this week.

But you have to remember that the big bombers who contend at Augusta haven’t generally made the trip to Hilton Head. I think that probably distorts the perception that bombers can’t thrive on this course.

Still, the key component to success this week will be approach play. These Bermuda greens are amongst the smallest green complexes on the entire tour. This is a coastal links and often the prevailing wind conditions can cause chaos.

It’s always good to consider players who are capable of withstanding potential gusts. One area of similarity with Augusta is the slickness of the greens. Players will need to approach these greens with care if they wish to prosper this week.

The Contenders

The elevated status has ensured an absolutely star-studded field this week. Honestly, it’s not that much of a drop off from last week’s Major Championship line-up.

Jon Rahm will be in action less than four days after claiming his maiden Green Jacket. It may be best to swerve the burly Spaniard his week.

Scottie Scheffler dominated the Pete Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass and will be looking for a bounce back this week. He struggled on the Bentgrass greens and may find this switch back to Bermuda more to his liking.

Patrick Cantlay is in action after intense media backlash regarding his agonisingly slow play on Sunday. And defending champion Jordan Spieth will be keen to build on a typically robust final round at Augusta.

Rory McIlroy has withdrawn this week following a second consecutive missed cut. Also, Will Zalatoris will be out for the rest of the season following a back operation.

And it will be nice to see Ernie Els in action on the PGA Tour once again. This will be the South African’s first non-Major tour start since the 2020 RBC Heritage.

Past Winners

2022: Jordan Spieth (-13) *playoff
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: C.T Pan (-12)
2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12) *playoff
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)

To Win Outright:

Jon Rahm 8/1 | Scottie Scheffler 8/1 | Patrick Cantlay 12/1 | Jordan Spieth 18/1 | Collin Morikawa 18/1

Value Bets

Shane Lowry- To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2

Shane Lowry hasn’t won on the US PGA Tour since lifting the Claret Jug at Royal Portrush in 2019. The Irishman has shown some sneaky improvement of late that suggests he could be a dark horse this week (especially when you factor in his strong course form). He is fresh for a solid T16 finish at Augusta (he couldn’t really get enough putts to drop all week). He finished T14 at Riviera and T5 at PGA National. He has three top-10 finishes in four starts here (including a T3 finish last year). Lowry is a short-game specialist who has the hands to bail him out of trouble around these tiny greens. But he has also been improving from tee-to-green, currently ranking seventh on tour for Driving Accuracy.

J.T. Poston- To Win 80/1 | To Place 17/1

J.T. Poston just screams value at this price. The two-time US PGA Tour winner won his second title at last year’s John Deere Classic. And he arrives in South Carolina in really fine nick. He was T10 at the Valspar before a strong final 16 showing at the WGC Match-Play. He then recorded a T34 finish at Augusta (his best finish in a Major). And he has remarkable course credentials. He finished 6th on debut in 2019 and 8th a year later. He missed the cut in 2021 only to finish in a tie for 3rd last year. He could be one to look out for in the place markets.

The Man to Beat- Patrick Cantlay- To Win 12/1 | To Place 26/10

I know that Cantlay has drawn the ire of the entire golfing world for his tediously slow play at Augusta. But he has been brilliant from tee-to-green in recent weeks and has absolutely tremendous course history at Harbour Town Golf Links. He finished solo 2nd last year after losing to Jordan Spieth in a playoff. He inexplicably missed the cut in 2021. But his other previous three visits yielded results of T3-T7-T3. He also arrives in really consistent form. He finished 3rd at Rivera and 4th at T4 at Bay Hill. He was slap-bang in contention on Sunday. But the usually exceptional putter just couldn’t get the flat-stick going. I don’t expect two weeks in a row like that.