2024 US PGA Tour
John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run
4 – 7 July
Aussie Cam Davies has struggled over the past six months, going so far as to visit a hypnotherapist to unlock something extra in his game.
But something just clicked last week, as the unassuming Aussie held off a slew of contenders to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic for his second US PGA Tour title (the first one coming at the same event back in 2021).
Akshay Bhatia never missed a putt from within six feet all week but he agonisingly pulled a little dibbler on the 72-hole, falling back to a tie for second alongside four other players.
Cameron Young is becoming the regular tour equivalent of Rory McIlroy in Major Championship golf, constantly putting himself in premium positions only to falter on Sunday.
He just couldn’t get things going on Sunday and I’m going to have to think twice about backing him in the future. The tour moves to Illinois this week for the latest installment of the John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic
The John Deere Classic was traditionally staged a week prior to the Open Championship. That was until the PGA Tour opted to co-sanction the 2022 Scottish Open alongside the DP World Tour.
That partnership has endured and this will be the third successive renewal of this event hosted two weeks before the Open Championship. Originally known as the Quad Cities Open, this event started life as a satellite event in 1971 (it became a regular US PGA Tour event a year later).
The event has been held at TPC Deere Run in Silvis since the turn of the millennium. This event garnered massive fanfare in 2005-2006 for the exemptions granted to Michelle Wie (which ultimately turned a bit farcical).
Jordan Spieth won in 2013 to become the first teenager to win on tour since 1931. Sepp Straka won last year, essentially sealing his Ryder Cup spot with a barnstorming Sunday 62. The field is understandably depleted ahead of the upcoming Open Championship.
TPC Deere Run
Designed by D.A. Weibring and located on Native American settlements, TPC Deere run is a par 71 that stretches to almost 7,300 yards.
It is really notable for consistently ranking among the easiest par 71s on the entire PGA Tour, allowing players to accumulate some confidence ahead of their upcoming links adventures.
Paul Goydos shot a 59 around here in 2010 while 2018 winner Michael Kim holds the scoring record with an incredible 27-under-par. What you do off the tee is largely irrelevant around this inviting layout.
The keys to success around TPC Deere Run are accurate iron play and a decisive short game (Jordan Spieth’s success here is evidence of that).
Zach Johnson is the prototypical course specialist, winning this title once and finishing runner-up on three occasions. This is actually a course that can throw up some unusual winners (Dylan Frittelli and Michael Kim come to mind).
The Contenders
Former champion Jordan Spieth will obviously garner plenty of attention from the galleries but he’s on a poor run of form and I would elect to swerve him this week.
Defending champion Sepp Straka has been really consistent in recent months and closed with a stunning 61 at the Travelers last time out (the best round of that day).
Aaron Rai gave himself a real chance of claiming his maiden PGA Tour title last week, putting beautifully to finish in that four-man tie for second.
Sungjae Im has been in really impressive form and should suit this course perfectly.
Cameron Davies is hoping to build on last week’s success in what is sure to be a fascinating edition of the John Deere Classic
Past Winners
2023: Sepp Straka (-21)
2022: J.T. Poston (-25)
2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
2018: Michael Kim (-27)
To Win Outright:
Jordan Spieth 16/1 | Sepp Straka 16/1 | Sungjae Im 16/1 | Aaron Rai 20/1 | Maverick McNealy 22/1
Value Bets
J.T. Poston – To Win 30/1 | To Place 13/2
I think J.T. Poston represents great value at 22/1. He won this event in wire-to-wire fashion back in 2022 and he is simply one of the best putters in the world when his game is firing.
He has also been in really strong under-the-radar form this season, picking up four top-ten finishes and missing just two cuts. This is an event that is tailor-made for him and I expect him to once again contend.
Seamus Power – To Win 55/1 | To Place 12/1
I really think Seamus Power could do damage with his wedges and short irons this week.
His victories at the Barbasol and Bermuda Championships exemplify what he can do at a wedge-fest.
He has never missed the cut in five trips here, gaining strokes with the putter in every appearance. He was third in the field with his irons at the Signature Event at Quail Hollow and he just gained strokes in every category at the Travelers.
Something is telling me that he could be a dark horse option this week.
The Man to Beat – Denny McCarthy – To Win 22/1 | To Place 48/10
Denny McCarthy is simply due a win. He has factored into events on various occasions over the last few years, twice losing in playoffs.
He has shown a proclivity for the TPC Deere Run, finishing T6 here in each of his last two visits.
He has played steadily all year, missing just two cuts and picking up top-six finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship and Valero Texas Open.
This is a pure birdie-fest and you are going to need to make plenty of putts this week. McCarthy currently ranks second on tour for SG: Putting and I think he will be a factor this week.
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