PREVIEW: 2025 PGA Tour – Valero Texas Open

I had some trepidation backing Min Woo Lee last week. The uber-talented Aussie has often underwhelmed in contention, battling to escape from the shadow of his major-championship winning sister: Minjee Lee.

But the 26-year-old delivered in Houston, holding off spirited charges from Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland to finally win his maiden tour title.

Lee will feel extremely confident ahead of next week’s Masters (where he memorably shot a front-none 30 in 2022). Augusta is tantalisingly poised, with favourites Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finishing strong at Memorial Park Golf Course.

The PGA Tour remains in the Lone Star State this week, moving from Houston to San Antonio for the latest edition of the Valero Texas Open.

Valero Texas Open

Originally staged in 1922, this esteemed event is actually the 3rd longest running tournament in PGA Tour history. Furthermore, it is actually the 6th oldest professional golf tournament worldwide and has always been held in the broader San Antonio area.

To be honest, this event has lost a bit of it’s magic over the years. It was previously demoted to the Fall Series and was played as an opposite event to both the President’s Cup and Ryder Cup.

The event then moved to the post-Masters slot (which is the equivalent of playing acoustic guitar after a Metallica set). It regained some credibility when it was moved to the week immediately preceding the Masters (its current spot).

This has seen an increase in the number of quality players fighting for a final Masters qualification spot (if this week’s winner isn’t already in the Masters field, he will have punched his ticket to Magnolia Lane).

The event was a fixture at La Cantera Golf Club between 1995 and 2009 before switching to current host venue, TPC San Antonio. The event was cancelled due to the pandemic in 2020, making this the 15th renewal staged at TPC San Antonio.

Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio

Opened in 2010, the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio was designed by the most popular man in golf: Greg Norman. Aussie Adam Scott won the inaugural staging of this event at TPC San Antonio.

This Bermuda layout can become quite tricky if those treacherous Texas winds pick up (strong wind players should be prioritized). Driving distance and accuracy aren’t overly determinative this week.

There are a litany of fairway bunkers that look more penal than the rough (sand save percentage could be a good index to look out for). But recent renewals suggest that GIR and putting will prove most critical this week.

In fact, seven of the last ten winners here have ranked inside the top-five for putting average. Also, keep an eye out for perhaps the quirkiest par 3 on the PGA Tour: the 16th.

The green features a bunker that partitions it into two segments. It’s a wonderful little quirk that lends the Oaks Course its own unique identity.

Contenders

Ludvig Aberg leads the markets this week, aiming to sharpen his game ahead of next week’s Masters. Aberg won at Torrey Pines but missed the cut in his last outing at TPC Sawgrass.

Tommy Fleetwood has finished inside the top 22 in all five of his 2025 PGA Tour starts. Still winless on the US PGA Tour, could Fleetwood finally break his PGA Tour duck this week?

Defending champ Akshay Bhatia will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner of this event since Zach Johnson in 2008-2009.

Elsewhere, the trio of Spieth, Matsuyama and Cantlay help to add some razzmatazz in this pre-Masters outing.

Past Winners

2024: Akshay Bhatia (-20) *playoff
2023: Corey Conners (-15)
2022: J.J. Spaun (-13)
2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Corey Conners (-20)

To Win Outright:

Ludvig Aberg 12/1 | Tommy Fleetwood 16/1 | Corey Conners 16/1 | Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 | Patrick Cantlay 20/1

Value Bets

Daniel Berger – To Win 30/1

Daniel Berger has suddenly regained his consistency, coming into this match on a run of five successive top 25 finishes. He has eight top 25 finishes in eleven starts if you go back to the end of 2024 (where he showed gumption to save his card with a 2nd place at RSM Classic).

He is 12th for Strokes Gained Total this year (and also ranked inside the top 50 for putting). He has missed the cut here in his two previous appearances but he does have some impressive Texas form, winning at Colonial and finishing 3rd at TPC Craig Ranch.

He arrives with some real momentum, finishing in a tie for 5th in his last start at TPC Sawgrass.

Gary Woodland – To Win 50/1

Former US Open champion Gary Woodland is still looking for his first win post-brain surgery. He came within a whisker last week, ultimately settling for T2 alongside Scottie Scheffler.

Woodland’s game has been trending upwards of late and this could really be his week. He has excellent course form, finishing 8th and 6th in his previous two starts here.

The Man to Beat- Jordan Spieth – To Win 25/1

2021 champion Jordan Spieth looks like spectacular value this week. The three-time champion has sorted out his wrist issues and should feel refreshed after taking a few weeks off post-Valspar.

He finished T4 in Phoenix, and he also finished in a tie for 10th here last year. Spieth is a former Masters champ who will look to get things rolling with a positive week in San Antonio.

A former Open champion, Spieth clearly understands how to win in blustery conditions.