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PREVIEW: 2021 European Tour – AVIA Dubai Championship

Damien Kayat preview the 2021 AVIA Dubai Championship taking place at the Fire Course at the Jumeriah Golf Estate.

Tommy Fleetwood - DP World Tour - Abu Dhabi Championship
Image Copyright - Steve Haag Sports

Damien Kayat previews the 2021 AVIA Dubai Championship taking place at the Fire Course at the Jumeriah Golf Estates.

Two women looking excitedly at cellphone

2021 European Tour
AVIA Dubai Championship
The Fire Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE
11th – 14th November

Formerly known as the Golf in Dubai Championship, this event was essentially utilized last year as a glorified practice session for the season-ending DP World Tour Championship. This year will different, with players looking to secure a qualification spot at the season-ending DP World Tour Championship. Other players will be looking to secure their tour card for next season. However, massive off-course developments will make this two-week Dubai excursion even more intriguing. In a huge new sponsorship deal, the European Tour will now be known as the DP World Tour from next season. The Dubai-based logistics company will be looking to reinvigorate a seemingly flagging tour. The Rolex Series will also expand from four to five events next season. It feels like the end of an era to some extent. But something had to give and you can completely understand why the tour has looked to desert power to revitalize its fortunes. This should be a compelling appetizer leading into next week’s season-ending event.

This will be the first of two European Tour events hosted at Jumeirah Golf Estates over the next two weeks. However, this week’s Fire Course is a far more pedestrian challenge than next week’s Earth Course (both courses are designed by Greg Norman). It also has a slightly more links-like feel compared to the Earth Course. It probably has to do with the elevation changes. This course reads like a monster at 7,480 yards. But the massive fairways and slow putting surfaces make this a real simple test for the tour professionals. The four par 5’s are particularly gettable and will provide a flurry of scoring opportunities. With only one previous European Tour outing, it’s not easy to really pinpoint what will constitute success this week. But I would hazard to guess that distance will prove more crucial than accuracy this week. I think it’s also wise to look at general desert form.

The organizers have actually managed to assemble a fairly strong line-up this week. That includes three (potentially chastened) Ryder cuppers. Paul Casey is one of the most metronomic players in world golf while Tommy Fleetwood and Bernd Wiesberger are established European heavyweights. All three of them actually possess pretty solid desert credentials. You also have to consider the likes of Thomas Detry and Min Woo Lee. Defending champion Antoine Rozner also looks a decent bet this week at 40/1. Matt Wallace also performed well last year and he is actually experiencing a nice late-season revival.

Past Winners

2020: Antoine Rozner (-25)

To Win Outright:

Tommy Fleetwood 9/1 | Paul Casey 10/1 | Bernd Wiesberger 16/1 | Matt Wallace 22/1 | Min Woo Lee 25/1

Value Bets

Sam Horsfield- To Win 33/1 | To Place 7/1

Sam Horsfield finished down the field last year, arriving in Dubai in truly dreadful form. His form figures going into the event read MC-MC-43-MC. But this time he arrives in much finer fettle, finishing 12th in Portugal last week despite some putting woes. He ranked 3rd last week for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This will clearly be a huge key to success on this long, rambling design. I just have a positive feeling for the Englishman this week. He just has to catch fire with the putter.

Johannes Veerman- To Win 45/1 | To Place 19/2

This must be the best value of all the picks this week. American Johannes Veerman has been in excellent form during the second half of the season. He has accumulated three top 10 finishes in nine events during this period. This obviously included his maiden victory at the D+D Real Czech Masters. But perhaps a better indicator of success was his 3rd place finish at the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open.

The Man to Beat- Matt Wallace- To Win 22/1 | To Place 48/10

I think I would probably swerve the Ryder Cuppers at much shorter odds (you always have to consider the hangover effect of that humiliation). I’m opting for another Englishman who has found some real form of late: Matt Wallace. Matt Wallace finished in a four-way tie for 2nd here last year. After missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms he improved to a decent T14 at the Shriners Children’s Open. He then gave us a sign of his true potential with an excellent T4 at the Zozo Championship. At his best, Matt Wallace is exactly the sort of ball-striking machine who should perform well this week.

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