PREVIEW: 2021 Open de Espana

2021 European Tour
Open de Espana
Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid
7th-10th October

This is enough to make a grown man cry. Seriously though, I have been calling for the elite European golfers to show some solidarity with their tour for some time now. And it doesn’t get much more elite than World Number One Jon Rahm. I’m sure that the burly Spaniard will still be smarting from that Ryder Cup humiliation. I think that Rahm could benefit from the slightly less combustible atmosphere of the European Tour. He will actually be aiming for a historic three-peat this week. He won the 2018 and 2019 editions of this event (last year’s Open de Espana was cancelled due to the pandemic). This event actually dates all the way back to 1912. It has essentially been an ever-present on the European Tour since its inception in 1972. It was removed from the schedule in 2017 and missed out last year due to the pandemic- as I alluded to earlier. This has been one of those events that has certainly diminished in stature over the last ten years or so.

The Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is a traditional inland course, sitting some 2,500 feet above sea level. The picturesque, undulating course isn’t overly familiar to European Tour viewers. Prior to hosting the 2019 edition of this event, the Club de Campo Villa last hosted a European Tour event in 2008 (Charl Schwartzel won the now-defunct Madrid Masters). It also hosted the defunct Open de Madrid between 2001 and 2005. At just a smidge over 7,100 yards, this par 71 isn’t going to scare the pros with length (especially operating so far above sea level). Rahm drove it further than anyone two years ago when he won by five strokes. The tree-lined fairways aren’t especially tight and I would rather back power this week. Good scrambling skills and a hot putter will be essential in this low-scoring affair.

Jon Rahm will probably win this week. I mean, the form he has been in on the FAR more competitive US PGA Tour has been ridiculous. He is practically always in contention. The reigning US Open champion has also won six of his 21 European Tour starts. But how do you back him at 22/10? There is logic to it. Sergio Garcia isn’t in this year’s field to challenge Rahm. Fellow Ryder cupper Bernd Wiesberger had a poor time of it at Whistling Straits and he may be jaded by the sheer effort it took for him to qualify for that failed US excursion. I actually thought that Harrington could have benefited from more youth in that side. The likes of Guido Migliozzi and Adri Arnaus do provide more firepower. Just as an aside, I think that the European side seriously has to reconsider the way they select their Ryder Cup sides. Harrington was left encumbered by a bevvy of out-of-form players. But I digress. Can anyone stop the red-hot Rahm from making it three consecutive titles?

Past Winners

2020: cancelled due to pandemic
2019: Jon Rahm (-22) *at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid
2018: Jon Rahm (-20)
2017: no event
2016: Andrew Johnston (+1)
2015: James Morrison (-10)

To Win Outright:

Jon Rahm 22/10 | Bernd Wiesberger 18/1 | Guido Migliozzi 33/1 | Victor Perez 40/1 | Calum Hill 40/1

Value Bets

Adri Arnaus- To Win 45/1 | To Place 19/2

Adri Arnaus is a big-hitting young Spaniard who just needs to reign in some of his worst impulses. His huge hitting is both his biggest strength and greatest weakness. He actually momentarily led last week’s Alfred Dunhill Links. But he ultimately had to settle for a humdrum T24. But this could be a huge week in home conditions. He has a good record in Spain and he could overwhelm this golf course with his strength.

John Catlin- To Win 60/1 | To Place 13/1

Rahm’s presence in this field has drastically inflated some of these prices. This is actually the perfect time to get your money in. Catlin is a brilliant ball-striker who has already won in Spain. He conquered the dreaded Valderrama in last year’s Andalucía Masters. His expert short-game skills should come in handy on this fairly benign layout. Sure, he has been in poor form since claiming his 3rd European Tour title in Austria earlier this year. But I just think that this course will suit his style of play. He currently ranks 3rd for SG: Tee-to-Green and 13th for SG: Around-the-Green.

The Man to Beat- Guido Migliozzi- To Win 33/1 | To Place 7/1

I just can’t look past the talented Italian at this price. Very seldom- if ever- is the 3rd favourite for a regular tour event going to come in at 33/1. The Rahm effect is massive this week. Migliozzi burst onto the scene in 2019, winning the Kenya Open before following that up with a win in the Belgian Knockout. This campaign he has registered three runner-up finishes. He also picked up a wonderful T4 at the US Open. He has shown recent form at altitude, finishing 7th at Crans in August. He also had a decent T17 at last week’s Alfred Dunhill Links.