The DP World Tour Championship | 19 November – 22 November | Jumeirah Golf Estate, Earth Course
The 2015 European Tour draws to a close this week and with seven players still able to win the Race to Dubai, so it looks like the DP World Championship will definitely be one to keep an eye on. Unsurprisingly, Rory McIlroy has been priced up as the favourite here and although he has every chance of winning and walking away with another Race to Dubai title, I’ll be looking for value elsewhere.
Measuring 7,670 yards, the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates is a course that favours the big hitters. The fairways are wide and very forgiving, and so rather than focusing on those who are accurate off the tee, this one is all about looking for players who can take advantage of the par 5’s and make birdies. In a field like this low scoring is essential and a look at the previous winner’s totals show that somewhere around the -20 mark will see players in with a fighting chance. Once on the fairway there are few challenges to overcome, so those who rank highly in GIR% from 125-150 yards are also a good bet, as are players who rank highly in the putting stats. A bit of course experience never hurt either and the experienced campaigners will know this course well, putting them at an obvious advantage. I’m struggling to see one of the outsiders winning here, but there are a few who look to be worth an each way bet.
So who will win in Dubai this week? Let’s have a look.
To Win (Outright)
Rory McIlroy: 5/1
Henrik Stenson: 55/10
Justin Rose: 8/1
Patrick Reed: 18/1
Victor Dubuisson: 22/1
VALUE BETS
Victor Dubuisson (22/1 a win, 48/10 a place)
The first player to catch my eye this week is Victor Dubuisson. After a quiet season, he has burst back onto the scene and a win in the Turkish Airlines Open a few weeks ago showed that he is back to his best. He’s one of those players who seems to thrive towards the end of the season and the Earth Course has been a happy hunting ground for him in the past. A third place finish in 2012 was followed by a second in 2013 and I’m hoping that this week he can go one better. I’ll be backing Dubuisson each way this week.
Byeong Hun An (28/1 a win, 62/10 a place)
Hun An is one of the seven players who could still win the Race to Dubai and he will arrive in Dubai looking to improve on that second place finish he earned last week. He looked particularly impressive a few weeks ago when he won the BMW Championship and last week he seemed back to his best against stiff competition. Hun An has been consistent all season and seems to be at his best when things get tough so don’t be surprised to see him inside the Top 5 on Sunday afternoon. I’ll be backing him each way.
Patrick Reed (14/1 a win, 31/10 a place)
No-one likes Patrick Reed, but his commitment to the game and the time he’s spent on the European Tour over the past few weeks has earned him everyone’s respect, although this seems to be given somewhat begrudgingly. He looked in great form last week and unlike Hun An, actually made it into a playoff and although that was where his dream ended it still proved he has it in him to win before he returns home. Reed is also one of the longer hitters in the field this week and can be deadly accurate with his irons, so he shouldn’t have too many problems making those invaluable birdies. At this price he can’t be ignored.
TOP BET:
Henrik Stenson (6/1 a win, 13/10 a place)
If you subscribe to the “horses for courses” theory, which I most certainly do, then you need look no further than Henrik Stenson, this week. He has won the past two installments of this event, posting scores of -16 and -25, and will be going for the elusive treble when he tees off on Thursday. Stenson currently leads the Tour in GIR% and after a solid performance last week will arrive here confident. The price isn’t great so forget the place bet and focus on the win.
