We preview the 2017 John Deere Classic which gets underway at TPC Deere Run on Thursday the 13th of July.
The American tour once again plays second fiddle to a European Tour that has certainly found a new lease on life in recent weeks. This would seem a perfect opportunity for a first-time winner as the top dogs turn their collective attention towards the rigours of links golf. Xander Shauffele showed just as recently as last week that the PGA Tour is proving fertile ground for first-time winners – especially considering the relative lack of depth in some of the recent fields. This week should prove no different at a course that is just itching to get dominated.
TPC Deere Run – as designed by D.A Weibring – is one of the most accommodating courses on the entire tour. Chad Campbell shot a 62 in the third round three years ago- and that was not even the lowest round of the day, with Scott Brown shooting a 61 on the self-same day. And who can forget Paul Goydos shooting 59 in 2010? So this course definitely presents an opportunity for players in need of a ‘pick-me-up’ to get some success.
Driving distance and driving accuracy are less important than stats such as scrambling, with many different ways to skin these accommodating holes.
Daniel Berger has played some remarkably consistent golf this year and rightfully heads the markets in a rather unglamorous betting pool. The likes of Kyle Stanley and Kevin Kisner represent a favourite’s field that definitely lacks a certain joie de vivre. But there are a lot of consistent performers towards the upper echelons of the betting profiles.
The John Deere Classic | Thursday 13 July – Sunday 16 July | TPC Deere Run
Past Winners
2016: Ryan Moore (-22) | 2015: Jordan Spieth (-20)*playoff | 2014: Brian Harman (-22) | 2013: Jordan Spieth (-19)*playoff | 2012: Zach Johnson (-20)*playoff
To Win Outright
Daniel Berger 12/1 | Brian Harman 14/1 | Charley Hoffmann 14/1 | Danny Lee 16/1 | Kevin Kisner 20/1
Value Bets
Steve Stricker – To Win 22/1 & To Place 48/10
Though he doesn’t play as much golf as he used to, the evergreen Stricker – perhaps one of the greatest putters in the modern era – cannot be dismissed when it comes to this event. He won this event three years in a row between 2009 and 2011- a feat that is almost anathema in the modern age of golf. But the real basis of my hunch lies in his encouraging display at Erin Hills: he finished in a highly creditable tie for 16th. Stricker relishes the bentgrass greens and will be encouraged by the fact that this tournament doesn’t’ traditionally reward huge bombers.
David Hearn – To Win 50/1 & To Place 11/1
The Canadian is one of those perennial underachievers, not quite getting four days together to capture that elusive title. He came agonisingly close to winning his national tournament a few years ago, with an inspired Jason Day leaving everybody in his wake. That same year he also finished in a tie for second at the Greenbrier Classic. The Ontario native finished in a tie for second in this very event four years ago, with a relatively unknown kid named Jordan Spieth draining a bunker shot on the 72nd hole to force a playoff – so lightning does strike twice. He has gone 10-8-73-14 since missing the cut at the Memorial, and I think he represents good value at 50/1.
Wesley Bryan – To Win 70/1 & To Place 15/1
Formerly known more for his array of golf trick shots, Bryan has had a breakthrough season that has seen him rocket to 41 in the World Golf Rankings. His victory at the Heritage showed a lot of bottle and really announced his emergence from the relative obscurity of ‘entertainer extraordinaire.’ There is added cause for optimism as he finished eighth in his first start here last season. While he is rather hit and miss at present, I expect him to do well in a relatively weak field.
The Man to Beat
Zach Johnson – To Win 25/1 & To Place 11/2
Sometimes you have to love the game of golf for producing opportunities like this. The two-time major champion hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this year, but he certainly has an affinity with this course. Notwithstanding a tie for 34th in 2016, Johnson has finished in an average of seventh to eighth since 2010. In the last five years he has won the event once and finished runner-up twice. The former Open Champion always seems to pick up momentum at this time of the year and looks an attractive option at 25/1.
Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets
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