Travelers Championship up next on PGA Tour

There was something reassuringly karmic about the events in Torrey Pines last week. Jon Rahm’s dramatic Covid withdrawal at Muirfield left a bitter aftertaste that may have destroyed those with a weaker disposition. But the burly Spaniard bounced back in resounding fashion, capturing his first Major Championship and reclaiming the World Number One ranking. I was simply amazed by the number of mental capitulations that we witnessed on Sunday. Rahm actually played better than his 6-under score suggested, flirting with the hole on various occasions coming down the stretch. I just couldn’t help but think of Tiger Woods during all the chaos. Had Tiger been fit and firing, I think he may have withstood the scoreboard pressure and offered Rahm a real challenge. But that’s pure speculation. This week should come as a welcome balm following last week’s brutal test.

This event started life as the Insurance City Open in 1952. The Travelers Championship has now been in existence for 69 years. This event has been the traditional follow-up to the US Open since 2007. The only exceptions to that were 2016 (due to the Olympics) and 2020 (due to the pandemic). As I noted earlier, conditions could hardly be more different this week. This event has set a host of incredible scoring records over the past few years. Ten years ago, Patrick Cantlay set the course record with a breathless 60 (still the lowest round shot by an amateur on the PGA Tour). But it was Jim Furyk’s 58 in 2016 that will forever be etched into the collective consciousness of golf. It was the first 58 ever shot on the PGA Tour. I predict more low scoring as players look to take out their Torrey Pines frustrations.

This course was originally designed by Robert J. Ross and Maurice Kearney in 1928. It was heavily reworked by Pete Dye in 1982 and again by Bobby Weed in 1989. The fairways are easy to find while the smaller than average Poa Annua greens are very accessible. This relatively small test offers the smaller hitters a real opportunity. The likes of Russell Knox and Jordan Spieth have won here in recent years. But the bigger hitters have also flourished (Bubba Watson has won this event three times). What this really boils down to is a putting contest. You are going to need to make putts when the scoring is this outrageous.

I thought that Bryson DeChambeau was going to run away with the US Open at the turn on Sunday. But the ‘Scientist’ completely imploded on the back nine, exposing flaws in his gung-ho style. Defending Travellers champ Dustin Johnson also flattered to deceive last week, positioning himself for a push that never came. He will be looking to bounce back after Jon Rahm replaced him as the World Number One. Seriously, there are so many players this week who were in contention at Torrey Pines. Brooks Koepka, Matthew Wolff and Patrick Cantlay are an American trio with a point to prove this week. The likes of Brian Harman and Russell Henley may also prosper on a course that doesn’t require mammoth length off the tee.

Past Winners

2020: Dustin Johnson (-19)
2019: Chez Reavie (-17)
2018: Bubba Watson (-17)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12) *playoff
2016: Russell Knox (-14)

To Win Outright:

Bryson DeChambeau 12/1
Dustin Johnson 12/1
Paul Casey 16/1
Brooks Koepka 16/1
Patrick Cantlay 16/1

Value Bets

Bubba Watson- To Win (45/1), To Place (19/2)

This is perhaps one of the most unimaginative plays all year. But 45/1! When you consider that Paul Casey is at 16/1. Watson will be looking to win his 4th Travellers this week. Watson hasn’t exactly been lighting it up this year. Consecutive top 20’s at the Valspar and Wells Fargo seemed to suggest that he was somewhere near his best. He then put himself in a real winning position at the halfway mark last week. But a disastrous 11 over-par weekend scuppered any chances of a 3rd Major Championship. Watson is the ultimate ‘horses for courses’ player. Look at his form at Augusta and Riviera. This is exactly the case with TPC River Highlands.

Ricky Fowler- To Win 50/1 | To Place 11/1

This one is based partly in fact and partly in sentimentality. That last one is never a good guide in betting markets. But Fowler was actually playing some great golf leading into this year’s US Open (he never qualified for either the Masters or US Open this year). He had a top 10 finish at the PGA Championship before a T11 at the Memorial. So, there’s that. Secondly, there is the breaking news that he and his wife are expecting their first child. This could bring a sense of calm and perspective to his game- just look at how it has grounded Jon Rahm. I think he could be worth a bet in the place markets.

The Man to Beat- Patrick Cantlay- To Win 16/1 | To Place 7/2

It’s really absurd to think that Cantlay is trading the same as Paul Casey. Cantlay won the Memorial title in controversial fashion following Jon Rahm’s abrupt withdrawal. He is actually a multiple winner this season having also captured the Zozo Championship. He was T15 in last week’s US Open, going slightly under the radar amongst all the huge names. Cantlay has very solid River Highlands form to boot. His last three results there read T15-T15-T11. I just think that he will be carrying less scar tissue than some of the other frontline contenders this week.