Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Kembla Grange on Thursday.
Best Bet: THOUSAND YEARS (Race 5)
Value Bet: BEEP TEST (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7).
A 4yr old filly and a 5yr old mare could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta, but JEANNE D’ARC is taken to lead the field home. She has shown steady improvement in her last three outings, culminating with a head victory last time out over seven furlongs. She came three wide into the home straight that day, but then proceeded to run down the leaders over the latter stages to claim victory in the shadow of the post. The form of that race has been franked and from a handy draw three, she looks to be the one to side with here.
LOUDER has cracked pole position and raced up with the pace before ending up in second place last time out over seven furlongs, one and a half lengths behind the winner. She should keep the top choice honest.
MYSTIC VEIN has consistent formlines to his name, finishing second in his latest outing over 1300M, just a short-head back from the winner. He jumped awkwardly that day, but recovered well to lead the pack into the home stretch, only to be run out of it very late. He is drawn the widest of them all in gate ten, but given his style of racing, he should use his early gate speed to move across with expending too much energy.
The day’s best bet, THOUSAND YEARS is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she had nothing go her way when finishing third on debut over 1300M, just 0.7L back from the winner. She was slow away and had to be eased off the heels of other runners shortly after the start and then only saw daylight at the 200M mark, before finishing off her race strongly. She is drawn wideish in gate nine, but she would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, she could prove too good for this line-up.
KAKARIKI is a 4yr old filly who made good late progress when finishing fourth in her last outing over seven furlongs, just under three lengths adrift of the victor. She was returning from a lengthy 42 week break that day and whilst having to deal with a wide gate thirteen, she does get a set of blinkers fitted for the first time, which will hopefully assist her to keep her mind on the task at hand.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE has only had the two runs to date and showed the expected improvement to finish in second spot last time out over seven furlongs, just under four lengths back from the winner, this despite not getting the clearest of passages in the home straight, only securing a run at the 200M pole. He is another who gets blinkers fitted for the first time and if these have the desired effect, he should be involved in the finish.
There are four unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners, HEAD LEGISLATOR may prove to be the best. He has finished second in all of his last four runs, the latter two over six furlongs and the last when just failing by a short-head. He jumped awkwardly that day and then had to be steadied off the heels of other runners shortly after the start, so should be considered an unlucky loser. The form of that race has been franked and from a cozy gate four, he could be the one that they all have to beat.
DEEP SNOW showed the expected improvement in his second start when finishing second over six furlongs, a length behind the winner. That effort was made more encouraging by the fact that he was bumped at the start and then denied a clear run at the 250M mark. Nevertheless, he finished off his race well and from gate six, he should be right up there when they hit the line.
UNWRITTEN came four wide into the home straight and was bumped at the 100M pole before ending up in fourth place last time out over 1300M, just over four and a half lengths behind the victor. He will have to overcome a wide draw fifteen, but he should be doing his best work late.
Two 3yr old fillies could dominate the finish to this race and secure the exacta, but the day’s value bet, BEEP TEST is the firm top pick. She showed marked improvement to win her maiden race by half a length last time out over six furlongs, this despite being bumped at the start. She made good late progress to collar the frontrunners over the latter stages and although taking on stronger, she jumps from gate six and could prove good enough to reel off a quick double.
FLOWER MOON won by 1.8L over six furlongs at the second time of asking by going from gun to tape. She is a speedy sort who should put her pole position to good use.
TORUN has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three runs, the latest when fifth over 1100M, just under two lengths adrift of the winner when returning from a 23 week absence. He jumped awkwardly that day and then had to be held up over the last 75M, so clearly should have finished closer to the winner than he officially did. From gate four, he should not be easily overlooked.