Winning Form brings you their best bets and tips from Warren, Australia on Tuesday.
Best Bet: REMORSELESS (Race 5)
Value Bet: NICCOLON (Race 6)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7)
A 6yr old and a 5yr old mare could fight out the finish to this race and secure the exacta, but the top choice goes to MUSIC MISS who has posted two solid last efforts, the latest when fourth over 1300M, just over two lengths behind the winner. She came three-wide into the home straight that day and although having to negotiate gate fourteen, she should be doing her best work late.
She renews her rivalry with DUSKY DAMSEL who finished fifth in that same race mentioned above, 2.2L back from the winner. She retains the services of the same 3kg claiming apprentice, but nevertheless, as the pair meet on the same weight terms today, the latter may have to settle for the same result, despite having a better draw nine.
RISK AND REWARD finished seventh last time out over seven furlongs, just under five and a half lengths behind the winner, but the blinkers go back on today and this should help him keep his mind on the task at hand. He will have to overcome draw eleven, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
REMORSELESS followed up his penultimate run victory over six furlongs with a fifth-place finish next time out when dropping down to five furlongs, just under two lengths back from the victor when returning from a lengthy 34-week absence. He was making good late progress that day and whilst having a wide draw ten, on the plus side he will get 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice. He also gets a set of blinkers fitted for the first time and if these have the desired effect, he could prove difficult to topple here. As such, he is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
TELLS TAILS is drawn one outside the top pick and is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she also won her penultimate start, in her case over 1100M and then finished fifth over the same trip next time out, five and a half lengths adrift of the winner. It should however be noted that she was trapped wide on the turn that day and should have finished closer to the winner as a result.
SKULLHARDERSON showed marked improvement when dropping down to five furlongs, finishing second, just a head behind the winner. He attracted plenty of betting support that day and although facing a wide draw seventeen, he has the early gate speed to move across without using up too much energy. He will be looking to make amends here and should be involved in the finish.
The day’s value bet, NICCOLON had his consistency rewarded with a half-length victory over this trip last time out and the form of that race has been franked. He returns from a 14-week rest and has not had the benefit of a barrier trial so his fitness will have to be taken on trust. He faces a wide gate twelve, but he is a speedy sort who should have little difficulty getting across to the running rail.
CLASSY REBEL won his penultimate start over six furlongs by all of 7.8L and then ended up in fifth place last time out over 1100M, just under two and a half lengths back from the winner. He has in fact won two of his last four outings and whilst having a wideish gate eight, he could emerge as the biggest danger to the top pick.
MARIA ELISA is a 6yr old mare taking on males, but she has cracked pole position and also won her penultimate run over five furlongs and then finished eighth next time out over the same c&d, three lengths off the winner. She returns from a longer 18-week break and has also not had a barrier trial, but two runners out of her last start have subsequently come out and won to boost her chances here.
BEAU FACTOR won his penultimate start over five furlongs and then showed plenty of toe before hitting the front at the 200M mark, only to be eventually run out of it late to end up in second spot next time out over 1100M, 1.3L behind the winner. He has pulled a wide gate thirteen, but on the positive side, he will have 2kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice.
SNIPER EXCELS is a 4yr old filly taking on boys, but she finished second last time out over five furlongs, 4.3L behind the winner when returning from a 17-week break. She has a far kinder draw five and should be right up there when they hit the line.
KAUFUSI won his penultimate start over five furlongs but was then reported to have bled from one nostril when disappointing last time out over six furlongs, just over ten lengths adrift of the winner and that effort should be totally ignored. With the three late scratchings in the race so far, he will come into gate sixteen and should be included in all bets.