Winning Form brings you all of their best bets and tips for Sunday’s Australian racing taking place at Kembla Grange.
Best Bet: MISS BALTIMORE (Race 7)
Value Bet: COMEBACK STAR (Race 8)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8).
There are four unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners, DANZETTE could prove to be the best. she stayed on well when finishing fourth last time out over 1350M, two lengths behind the winner and the form of that race has been franked. She returns from a 22 week rest, but she did finish third in her only barrier trial to prove her fitness. Although drawn in gate ten, she could lead the pack home.
JAL LEI has her first run since a similar 22 week break, but has had the benefit of two barrier trials, finishing second in the first and third in the latest. She finished third on debut over 1100M, one and a half lengths back from the victor, but it should be noted that she was hampered shortly after the start and was then bumped at the 250M mark that day. She will have to overcome a wide draw sixteen, but she should be doing her best work late.
MIA ZOI finished ninth first time out over 1350M, 7.7L adrift of the winner, but she raced very green that day and the form of that race has stood up well with four runners out of that event subsequently winning. She returns from a lengthy 35 week absence, but she did win both her two barrier trials to showcase her well-being. She has pulled draw twelve, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
HEAD LEGISLATOR has finished second in his last three runs, the latest over 1100M just under four lengths behind the winner when returning from a 10 week rest. The gelding did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight that day and should have finished closer to the victor as a result. From his handy draw three, he should be right up there when they hit the line.
CONSTRUCT found himself towards the back of the field before finishing strongly to end up in fifth place last time out over 1250M, 12.4L adrift of the winner, but he was reported to have lost his off-fore shoe in the race that day and that effort is probably best ignored. If recapturing the form of his penultimate effort over 1100M, be should be a big runner here, notwithstanding a wide draw fifteen out of eighteen.
TICKET TO ANYWHERE on the other hand has cracked pole position. He has only had the two runs to date, finishing second on debut over 1100M and then third next time out over today’s trip, one and a half lengths back from the winner. He came the widest into the home straight that day, but still managed to hit the front at the 200M pole, only to be run out of it very late.
The day’s best bet, MISS BALTIMORE is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has won both of her starts since returning from a 26 week break, the latest over this distance, putting two and a half lengths between herself and the opposition. She was eased down approaching the winning post that day, so the winning margin could have been considerably larger. From her cozy draw three, she may prove to be too good for this line-up.
PEREGRINATION is lightly raced having only had the three runs to date, finishing fourth on debut over six furlongs and then winning his next two starts over six furlongs after returning from a shorter 20 week rest, the latest by 4.8L. He is sure to put his pole position to good use and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice.
CATHAY is another 4yr old filly in the race and followed up her penultimate run victory over six furlongs with a rather disappointing seventh next time out over 1280M, seven and a half lengths back from the winner, but it must be recorded that she had to be steadied at the 900M mark and was then held up approaching the home turn. She has a wideish draw nine, but will have 3kgs removed from her allocated weight courtesy of her claiming apprentice to aid her cause.
COMEBACK STAR has made steady improvement in her last three outings, culminating with a one length victory last time out over six furlongs at this track. She jumped awkwardly that day but finished strongly to mow down the frontrunners over the latter stages of the contest. She will have to negotiate draw eleven, but she should be doing her best work late and as such she is made the value bet on the day’s card.
JEANNE D’ARC had to be held up early and then did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight before finishing sixth last time out over a mile, 5.7L adrift of the winner and was immediately rested for 20 weeks. She returns here after having had two barrier trials, finishing second in the latest and should not be easily overlooked in this field.
IOLANTHE won her penultimate start over seven furlongs and then finished fourth next time out when stepping up to a mile, six lengths behind the winner, but she only saw daylight at the 300M pole that day and the form of that race has been franked. She has her first start since returning from a slightly longer 22 week and two barrier trials and from draw seven, she should be included in all bets.