Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Thursday’s Australian Racing taking place at Kembla Grange.
Best Bet: CONRAD (Race 6)
Value Bet: GREATER HARLEM (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
SWEET RUBY is seldom far off the action and although recorded as finishing sixth last time out over 1100M, she was just over three lengths behind the winner, this despite coming three-wide into the home straight. She was only run out of it late that day and the form of that contest has been franked. She returns from a 21-week break and has not had the benefit of a barrier trial so her fitness will have to be taken on trust, but she has a handy draw three and should be right up there when they hit the line.
BLAZING LINE has only had the two runs to date, finishing third over 1100M on debut and was then immediately rested for a lengthy 77 weeks. She returned to win by half a length over five furlongs, justifying the faith her connections had in her ability. She jumps from gate five and if confirming that last effort, she could prove good enough to complete a quick double.
PAPER DAISY has posted two solid last efforts, the latest when sixth over this c&d, just under a length and a half behind the victor. She overraced in the early stages and then came the widest of them all into the home straight that day but nevertheless finished off her race well. She is drawn one outside the latter and has also finished second in a subsequent barrier trial.
The day’s best bet, CONRAD has only had the four runs to date and after finishing second on debut over 1100M, he has won two of his last three outings, the latest over 1100M by 1.3L when returning from a 19-week rest. He came three-wide into the home stretch in that last start but ran on well to record a comfortable victory and the form of that race has been franked. He gets gate five and could prove difficult to conquer here.
BOJACK is a speedy sort who ended up in third place last time out over six furlongs, 1.2L back from the winner. He is drawn one outside the top choice and could emerge as his biggest threat.
KA BLING finished third first time out over 1100M and then won his next outing by a length when stepping up to six furlongs. He clearly has some ability and whilst facing a wideish draw eight, he should be involved in the finish.
With the late scratching of one of his main rivals, the door may have opened for today’s value bet, GREATER HARLEM to chalk up his maiden victory. He was slow away before making good late progress to finish up in third spot last time out over seven furlongs, 2.7L adrift of the winner. He will have to negotiate draw eleven out of twelve, but given his style of racing, he is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the frontrunners in the dash down to the winning post.
STRAY is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys. She finished ninth last time out over a mile, just over five lengths behind the winner, but that was in a Group 1 event and she faces much weaker here. She has not fared too well in her gate position of nine, but nevertheless, she should give the males a good run for their money.
SEMPREINTE on the other hand has cracked pole position and has finished second and third in his last two starts over six furlongs, the latest when 2.3L off the winner. He is a known frontrunner and from his cosy gate, he may prove difficult to reel in over the closing stages.
Two 5yr old mares could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta, but the nod goes to BUBA to lead the pack home. She came four-wide into the home straight before staying on well to end up in second place last time out over a mile, two lengths back from the winner. She has her first run for her new trainer and if fully settled into her new surroundings and from draw three, she looks to be the one to side with here.
LOUDER did not get the clearest of passages in the straight before finishing third last time out over 1500m, just under two lengths behind the winner. She will have to overcome a wideish draw nine, but with better luck in running today, she should be right up there in the mix.
WE’RE OFF has consistent formlines to his credit and had to weave his way through traffic before finishing fourth in his latest outing over a mile, just a length off the winner. He attracted plenty of betting support that day and from a kinder gate six, he will be looking to make amends here and, as such, should be included in all bets.