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Australian Racing Best Bets & Tips – 17 October 2021

Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Sunday’s Australian Racing from Nowra.

Australian Racing

Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Sunday’s Australian Racing from Nowra.

Two women looking excitedly at cellphone

Best Bet: SEMPREINTE (Race 4)

Value Bet: VOX POP (Race 6)

Jackpot (race 4 – 7).

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

11

4

2

8

13

7

9

2

 

3

4

3

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

6

Cost: R90.00

Race 4.

The day’s best bet, SEMPREINTE has only had the three runs to date and has not been far behind the winner on all three of those occasions, the latest when second over 1250M, just under two and a half lengths back from the victor. He tried to go from jump to wire that day and from a wide gate ten, he is likely to adopt similar tactics here. He has his peak run after returning from a 21 week break and could prove to be difficult to topple in this line-up.

MISTAKEN IDENTITY is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has finished second in her last two outings, the latest over seven furlongs, 1.2L back from the winner. She finished strongly that day and from one gate outside the top choice, she is likely to be dropped out of the race early on and then start to pick off the frontrunners over the closing stages. She gets the blinkers refitted today and looks to be the obvious danger to the top pick.

WOODSON has also only had the three runs, finishing second in his penultimate start over six furlongs, beaten just a head and was immediately rested for 66 weeks. The gelding then finished third over six furlongs on his return, 2.7L adrift of the winner. He gets a far kinder draw three and the fact that his connections have brought him back into racing after such a lengthy absence would seem to suggest that they believe that he still has something more to offer them.

Race 5.

CRYSTAL WATERS is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she showed marked improvement to win her maiden race by 0.7L last time out over 1300M when returning from a 26 week absence. She had obviously benefitted from the rest and made good late progress to claim that victory. The form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of the contest subsequently winning. From draw six, she should give the boys a good run for their money.

VIKING POWER did not really quicken when finishing sixth in his last outing over 1425M, three and a half lengths behind the winner, but did win over today’s trip three runs back and on that effort, he could emerge as the biggest threat to the former, notwithstanding a wide gate ten.

ALQAAB on the other hand has cracked pole position and had his consistency rewarded with a head victory last time out over 1425M. He battled all the way down to the wire that day and if showing the same determination today, should be right up there in the firing line.

Race 6.

VOX POP is seldom far off the action, finishing second last time out over 900M, one and a half lengths back from the winner. He finished his race off strongly on that occasion, suggesting that the extra ground on offer today will be to his liking. From gate seven, he is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.

A 5yr old mare and a 4yr old filly could chase him home, with the slight preference going to LOVING CILLA who jumped awkwardly and then only saw daylight at the 250M mark before ending up in seventh place last time out over seven furlongs, 4.7L back from the winner. She returns from a 14 week rest, but did finish fourth in her only barrier trial to showcase her well-being and jumps from one gate outside the top pick.

SALLY POPS has her first run after a longer 23 week break, but has not had a barrier trial so her fitness will have to be taken on trust. She overraced in the early stages and understandably had nothing to come when seventh last time out over 1550M, 6.8L behind the winner, but she was also reported to be lame in her front-fore, so that effort is best ignored. She is drawn the widest of them all in gate thirteen, but should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.

Race 7.

There are three unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runner, WINNING BUSINESS may prove to be the best. She is a 4yr old filly taking on boys, but she had finished third and then fifth in her last outing over 1300M, 3.3L behind the winner. She overraced in the early and middle stages that day, before embarking on a lengthy 46 week break. She returns here after having had four barrier trials, finishing second in the latest. She gets gate five and should give a good account of herself here.

HYPNOSIS had finished third in his two runs prior to being a tad disappointing in his latest outing over 1300M, finishing 6.3L adrift of the winner, but he did jump awkwardly and then came four wide into the home stretch that day, so that effort may not prove to be that poor. He returns from an even longer 56 week absence, but has had the benefit of a barrier trial where he finished second. From a wideish draw eight, he should be right up there in the mix.

BAILIESTON is another 4yr old filly in the race. She has finished closer to the winner in each of her last three runs, the latest when third over this c&d, just over half a length behind the winner, despite being friendless in the betting markets. She has pulled draw ten and has finished second in a subsequent barrier trial to enhance her claim for top spot.

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