Australian Racing: Wednesday 28 April 2021 – Warwick Farm

Best Bet: DISRUPTOR (Race 4)

Value Bet: LILLIUM (Race 6)

Jackpot (race 4 – 7)

Leg 1:  1, 5
Leg 2:  1, 2, 5
Leg 3:  5, 1, 3
Leg 4:  6, 7, 8

Cost: R54.00

Race 4

DISRUPTOR goes for his hat-trick after wins over 1100M and the latest over six furlongs by 1.3L. He hit the front at the 250M mark that day and then fought off all challengers over the closing stages. He returns from a lengthy 55 weeks, but has had the benefit of a barrier trial, where he finished second. He is drawn the widest, but as the field has only eight runners, this should not be too big an issue and the colt is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card. KEY LARGO on the other hand has cracked pole position. He missed out on his hat-trick when finishing third over 1100M last time out, but just a neck behind the winner and the form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning. He gets the services of ex-SA jockey Keagan Latham, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle. Although SHADOW CRUSH is recorded as finishing sixth last time out over six furlongs, he was only one length back from the winner. He was making good late progress that day and has his peak run here after returning from a 20 week break. From gate three, he should be involved in the finish.

Race 5

FALCON followed up his penultimate run victory over six furlongs with a half length second place finish next time out over the same c&d. He tried to go from jump to wire that day and was only collared very late. He faces a wide gate thirteen out of fourteen, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy. MIDLAND also led the field into the home straight when putting 3.3L between himself and the opposition to win his last outing over six furlongs when returning from a 22 week rest. He has subsequently had two barrier trials, finishing third in the first and then winning the latest. He has a far kinder draw three and should be right up there when they hit the line.

BRAVADO showed marked improvement when finishing second last time out over 1100M, just under half a length adrift of the victor when returning from a longer 34 week absence. He overraced in the early stages that day and was then hampered at the 800M pole before not getting the clearest of passages in the home straight. From his gate seven and with better luck in running, he should not be lightly dismissed in this line-up.

Race 6

LILLIUM has her hat-trick run after winning her last start over five furlongs by a head when returning from a lengthy 70 week break. She has also had a barrier trial since the victory, where she finished fourth. She steps up in trip, but did win over the distance two runs back, so this should not be a problem. She gets gate six and could be the one that all have to beat, given that she will have 2kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice. WILLOWHEART sticks with the six furlong sprint after finishing a head second in her last outing over that distance when returning from a shorter 20 week rest. She will have to deal with a wideish draw eight, but on the plus side, she will have 3kgs removed from her allocated weight courtesy of her claiming apprentice. JUAN DIVA is drawn one inside the latter and had nothing go her way when finishing tenth in her last start over 1100M, 13.3L behind the winner. She was bumped shortly after the start that day and was then denied a run in the home straight, only seeing daylight at the 200M mark, so that effort is best ignored. She has her peak run here after returning from a 25 week break and should be included in all bets.

Race 7

GOOD STOCK has won two of his last three starts, the latest over seven furlongs by one length when returning from a lengthy 54 week break. He is a known front runner who is drawn wide in barrier eleven, but he should use that early gate speed to shift across without burning up too much energy. He could prove good enough to chalk up a quick double. TRAVEST has remarkably finished 1.8L behind the winner in his last three outings, the latest when second over 1500M. He was however hampered at the 400M mark that day and only got a clear run at the 230M pole. He has pulled gate eight and will be hoping to go one better today. MIGHTYBEEL was well back entering the home straight, but then finished strongly to end up in second place last time out over 1500M, two lengths back from the winner. From his cozy gate two, he should be right up there in the mix.