Winning Form brings you all of their best bets and tips from Kempsey on Friday 5 November.
Best Bet: SCHILLER BAY (Race 8)
Value Bet: TOP ME UP AGAIN (Race 7)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
10 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
2 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
6 | 9 | 3 |
|
Cost: R54.00
Race 5
MOSH VAIN won one and was placed second in his two runs prior to finishing a disappointing thirteenth last time out when stepping up to seven furlongs, just over nine lengths behind the winner, but he was forced wide approaching the home turn that day and the form of that race has stood up well with 3 runners out of the contest subsequently winning. He gets a handy draw four and gets a set of blinkers refitted for today’s run. If this move has the desired effect, he should be a big runner here, returning to what appears to be a more suitable distance.
APACHE BLUE has consistent formlines to his name and jumped awkwardly, but recovering well to set the pace before ending up in second place in his latest outing over six furlongs, 1.3L back from the winner. He faces a wide draw twelve out of thirteen, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
NICCI KNEE KNACK on the other hand has cracked pole position and although recorded as finishing sixth last time out, he was just over three lengths adrift of the victor. He did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight in that contest, only seeing daylight at the 100M mark, so did well to get as close to the winner as he eventually did and should be included in all bets.
Race 6
LAPHROAIG lost two lengths at the jump before finishing strongly to secure his second career win last time out over 1100M by 2.8L. He will have to negotiate gate seven, but the double looks very much on the cards.
PARTY HOST followed up his penultimate run victory over nine furlongs with a third-place finish next time out when dropping down to a mile, four lengths adrift of the winner, but he did come three-wide into the home stretch that day. He faces a wide draw eleven, but he is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the frontrunners over the closing stages of the contest.
YARRINUP FLYER is a 6yr old mare taking on the boys, but she also won her penultimate start, in her case over eleven furlongs, before finishing second over the same journey next time out, four lengths behind the winner, notwithstanding travelling wide from the 600M mark. She gets a kinder gate five and should give the males a good run for their money.
Race 7
The day’s value bet, TOP ME UP AGAIN showed marked improvement when finishing strongly to end up in third spot last time out over six furlongs, just a neck back from the winner. He was friendless in the betting markets that day and has won a subsequent barrier trial. The gelding jumps from gate five and will have the cheekpieces re-fitted for today’s run. If this move has the desired result, he should be right up there in the firing line.
CAMP RIFLE is seldom far off the action, having finished second in his last two starts, the latest over seven furlongs, a neck behind the winner. He came five wide into the home straight in that race but made good late progress over the latter stages and three runners out that contest have subsequently won to boost that form. He will have to overcome a wide draw eleven, but he should be doing his best work late.
MISTER SMARTEE had to be held up approaching the turn but nevertheless finished well to win his last start over a mile by two lengths. He has a wideish gate eight, but should not be lightly dismissed in this line-up.
Race 8
SCHILLER BAY won his penultimate outing over 1100M and was bumped at the start before finishing fourth last time out over six furlongs, just over two lengths behind the winner, so that effort can be forgiven. He stayed on well that day and from a cosy draw four, he is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
PACE STICK also won his penultimate start, but in his case, over six furlongs and then followed that up with a fifth-place finish next time out over five furlongs, 3.2L back from the winner and was immediately rested for 42 weeks. He returns here after having had two barrier trials, winning the first and will jump from gate two. The fact that his connections have brought him back into racing after such a lengthy absence would seem to suggest that they believe that he still has something more to offer them, so he needs to go into the play.
TALLIS is drawn one outside the latter and is another who won his penultimate outing, but over five furlongs and then finished ninth next time out over five furlongs, 5.8L off the winner when returning from a 21 week rest. The form of that race has been franked and he has finished second in a subsequent barrier trial, so he should be involved in the finish
