Winning Form brings you all of their best bets and tips for Tuesday’s Australian racing taking place at Kembla Grange.
Jackpot (race 4 – 7)
This looks to be a tricky event to open up the Jackpot, made more difficult by the fact that there are four unraced runners in the field. So as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners, TAYLOR’S DREAM may prove to be the best. She is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she was caught three-wide before ending up in fourth place last time out over five furlongs, just over three and a half lengths behind the winner. She stayed on well that day and whilst having to negotiate draw nine, she should be right up there when they hit the line.
CARLISLE BAY jumped awkwardly and was then hampered shortly after the start before finishing sixth in his last outing over 1300M, five lengths back from the winner. He returns from a 15-week rest, but did finish third in his only barrier trial to prove his fitness. He has pulled gate eight and should not be lightly dismissed in this line-up.
ALE MAGIC is another 3yr old filly in the race and has her first run since an even longer 22-week break, but has also had the one barrier trial, which she won. She has only had the one run to date, finishing third over 1100M, 5.8L adrift of the winner, but he would have learnt from that experience. He is drawn the widest of them all in gate fourteen but gets the services of ex-SA jockey Keagan Latham, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.
The day’s value bet, EXPLOSIVE TRUTH had finished second in his two runs prior to winning his maiden race last time out over six furlongs by 0.8L when returning from a 32-week break. He jumped awkwardly that day but recovered well to lead the field into the home straight and then bust clear of the pack at the 350M pole to record an encouraging victory. He has a wideish draw eight and takes on stronger, but could prove good enough to record a quick double.
Two 3yr old fillies could chase him home, with the slight preference going to RAISON D’ETRE who, although recorded as finishing fifth last time out, was just under three and a half lengths adrift of the victor. She was returning from a shorter 17-week absence that day and has a kinder draw three and could emerge as the biggest threat to the top choice.
DUCHESS showed marked improvement when finishing second in her last start over six furlongs, 1.8L off the winner. She struck the front at the 180M mark that day and was only run out of it very late. She has pulled gate seven and has her peak after returning from a 21-week absence.
MARCASSIN had his consistency rewarded with a head victory last time out over 1300M when returning from a lengthy 45-week absence. He faces a wideish gate eight, but he gets a set of blinkers fitted for the first time and if these have the desired effect, he should be right up there in the firing line.
THISTLEDO followed up his penultimate run win over 1300M with a fourth-place finish next time out over seven furlongs, just over a length and a half back from the winner. He tried to go from jump to wire that day and from draw six, he is likely to attempt similar tactics today.
LIVEINTHEFASTLANE is a 5yr old mare taking on males, but she had finished third in her two runs over this distance prior to ending up in ninth spot last time out over a mile, nine and a half lengths adrift of the winner. It should however be noted that this was in a Group 1 event and that she did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight that day. She has cracked pole position and should be included in all bets.
SONIC TYCOON has won both of his first two starts, with the latest being a short-head victory over today’s trip. He hit the front entering the straight and then fought off all the late challengers to record a courageous victory. The form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning. He returns from an 18-week absence but has had the benefit of two barrier trials, finishing second in the latest. He has drawn in pole position and is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card.
MADAM CHARM is a 3yr old filly taking on boys, but she has shown solid improvement in her last three outings, culminating with a 0.8L win last time out over 1500M. She will have to overcome gate nine but could be the biggest danger to the top pick.
BLACK WAND won his penultimate start over this distance and then finished sixth last time out over seven furlongs, just over three and a half lengths behind the winner. He is drawn seven and should be involved in the finish.