Winning Form brings you their best bets & tips from Kensington.
Best Bet: ITA (Race 4)
Value Bet: OH PLEASE DIANNA (Race 6)
Jackpot (race 4 – 7)
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
6 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
3 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
3 | 11 | 5 | |
Cost: R54.00
Race 4
The day’s best bet, ITA is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she goes for her hat-trick after wins over seven furlongs and the latest over a mile by 1.8L. She was hampered at the jump that day, but recovered well to hit the front as the field entered the home straight and then held off all the late challengers in the dash down to the line. From her handy draw three, she could prove to be difficult to topple here.
JOJO WAS A MAN jumped awkwardly and found himself at the rear of the field before finishing strongly to end up in fourth place last time out over 1300M, just under three lengths behind the winner. He gets gate eight and has his peak run after returning from a 20 week break.
MIGHTYBEEL is drawn one outside the latter and finished fourth last time out over a mile, 2.3L back from the winner, but came four wide into the home stretch that day, so should have finished closer to the victor as a result.
It should also be noted that the form of that race has stood up well with three runners out of that contest subsequently winning. He returns from a 20 week break, but did win his only barrier trial to prove his fitness.
Race 5
PROMISE OF SUCCESS has consistent formlines to her name and finished second last time out over 1300M, just a short-head behind the winner. She is drawn the widest of them all in gate nine, but finished strongly in that last outing, so will likely be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the frontrunners over the closing stages of the contest. She does return from 10 week rest, but finished fourth in her only barrier trial.
CALGARY QUEEN showed solid improvement to win her last start over six furlongs by 0.8L when returning from a 16 week absence. She went from jump to wire that day and the form of that race has been franked. She has a kinder draw three and should be right up there when they hit the line.
EIGHT DIAMONDS had nothing go her way when finishing thirteenth last time out over six furlongs, just over four lengths back from the winner. She was slow away and hampered shortly after the start and then was checked at the 900M mark. In addition, she was reported to have been coughing post-race, so that effort should be best ignored. She gets a wideish gate eight, but if bouncing back to her earlier form, she should not be overlooked in this line-up.
Race 6
A 5yr old mare and two fillies could fight out the finish to this race and complete the trifecta, but the day’s value bet, OH PLEASE DIANNA is taken to lead the pack home. She followed up her penultimate run victory over five furlongs with a staying on third place finish next time out over the same sprint trip, just a head behind the winner. On that effort it seems likely that she will appreciate the extra ground on offer here. She has a cozy gate three and will have her peak run after returning from a lengthy 37 week absence.
ESCAPE ARTIST is seldom far off the action and ended up in fourth spot in her latest outing over five furlongs at this track, 1.3L off the winner. That effort was made more encouraging by the fact that she had to be switched at the 300M pole, but still battled on all the way down to the wire. She needs to negotiate draw nine, but nevertheless she should keep the top choice honest.
A VERY FINE RED has only had the three runs to date, winning on debut over 1100M and then finishing fourth next time out over six furlongs and was immediately rested for 18 weeks. She finished third over 1100M on her return, 3.3L behind the winner, but was hampered at the start and overraced in the early stages, before being held up between the 400M and 200M in that contest. She will have to overcome a wide draw eleven, but the blinkers are removed today and if this move has the desired effect, she should be a big runner here.
Race 7
Although PROMOTIONS is recorded as finishing fifth last time out over five furlongs, 2.3L back from the winner, that result should be view in the light of him being bumped at the start and becoming unbalanced at the 300M mark, before only seeing daylight at the 150M mark in the home straight and losing a near-hind shoe during the running of that race. The form of that race has also been franked and from his draw four, he looks to be the one to side with here.
SEQUANA is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she has finished closer to the winner in each of her last three runs, the latest when ending up in fourth spot over 1300M, just over a length behind the winner. She was slow away and held up between the 250M and 100M marks that day, but finished off her race well. She faces a wide draw ten, but has he peak outing since returning from a 16 week break.
ESCAPED tried to go from gun to tape before finishing second last time out over six furlongs, 1.3L back from the winner. He hung out over the latter stages of that race and will have to overcome the widest draw of them all in gate fourteen, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
