Australian Racing: Weekend Best Bets & Tips (20 & 21 March)

Winning Form brings you all of their best bets and tips for this weekend’s racing taking place in Australia.

Saturday 20 March 2021 – Rosehill Gardens.

Best Bet: AVILIUS (Race 6)

Value Bet: LE LUDE (Race 9)

Jackpot (race 6-9) – Cost: R200

Race 6.

With the track conditions already being posted as Heavy 9 and with more rain expected overnight and on race day, proven mud-larks should enjoy a considerable advantage at this prestigious race meeting. Today’s best bet, AVILIUS has cracked pole position and will benefit from the late scratching of one of his main rivals. He is in fact unbeaten on heavy tracks. He finished third in his last start over a mile in a Group 1 event, 0.4L behind the winner when returning from a 15 week rest, this despite coming four wide into the home straight. Stable companions FUNSTAR and KOLDING from the powerful Chris Waller yard are taken to chase the top choice home. The former is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys and finished 0.2L behind the top pick in the race referred to above. She will have to negotiate a wideish draw eight and as the pair meet on the same weight terms here, she may have to settle for the same result. She does however have her peak run after returning from a 15 week break. Her stable mate had finished second in his two runs prior to finishing fifth in his last outing in the same race as the top two selections, 0.8L back from the winner. He too meets the first selection on the same weight terms, so could struggle to reverse that last result. He does however have a kinder draw three and should be right up there when they hit the line.

Race 7.

PROFITEER missed out on his hat-trick when only collared in the shadow of the post to be beaten a head last time out over this trip in a Group 2 race. He overracing badly that day to lead the field into the straight and if settling better in today’s race, he could bounce back to winning ways, jumping from his handy gate five. He renews his rivalry with STAY INSIDE who was also denied his trio of victories when finishing 1.7L back from the victor in the same race mentioned above. As the pair meet on the same weight terms here, the latter may battle to overturn that last result. It should however be noted that STAY INSIDE was denied a clear run in the home straight in that contest and only saw daylight at the 100M mark, but then finishes strongly over the latter stages. He has pulled draw three and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top pick. FOUR MOVES AHEAD is a filly taking on males, but she is two from two, winning her last outing by a neck in a Group 2 event over six furlongs. She faces a wide gate ten, but nevertheless she should give the boys a good run for their money. INGRATIATING is drawn one outside the latter, but he is seldom far off the action and jumped awkwardly last time out when ending up in fifth place over six furlongs, just over one length behind the winner. He gets the blinkers re-fitted for today’s run and should be doing his best work late.

Race 8.

TAILLEUR is a 4yr old filly taking on male rivals, but she goes for her hat-trick after wins over 1100M and the latest in a Group 3 event over six furlongs by nearly half a length. She hit the front at the 300M mark that day and then proceeded to hold off all challengers in the dash down to the wire. She faces draw seven, but could prove good enough to chalk up the trio of victories. WILD RULER has won two of his last three outings, including the latest in a Listed event over 1100M by 1.3L when returning from an 18 week absence. He was making good late progress in that race and given his style of running his wide draw eleven may not be too big a disadvantage as he is likely to be doing his best work late. HAUT BRION HER is a 5yr old mare who overraced in the middle stages of her last start over 1300m, ending up in second place, beaten just a neck. She returns from a 20 week break, but has had the benefit of two barrier trials, winning them both. She will have to deal with gate nine, but nevertheless she should be included in all bets.

Race 9.

Today’s value bet, LE LUDE steps up in trip after finishing fourth in her latest run over a mile by just over two lengths. She was staying on well that day suggesting that she should appreciate the extra ground on offer here. From draw eight, she looks to be the one to side with here. SHE’S IDEEL attracted plenty of betting support before being beaten a short-head in her last outing over the mile journey. She finished strongly that day and from gate fifteen, she is likely to be dropped out of the race in the early stages and then come with a rattle over the closing stages. WELSH LEGEND had her consistency rewarded with a one and a half length victory last time out over today’s distance. She jumped awkwardly that day, but then went on to hit the front at the 350M pole and get to the line a comfortable winner. She has pulled draw nine and should be involved in the finish.

Sunday 21 March 2021 – Muswellbrook.

Best Bet: WATER DOVE (Race 7)

Value Bet: MOOKAREENA (Race 5)

Jackpot (race 5 – 8). – Cost: R54.00

Race 5.

MOOKAREENA had improved in her last two runs prior to staying on well to finish seventh in her last start over seven furlongs, nearly five and a half lengths behind the winner, but that was in a Listed race, so that effort was encouraging. She jumps from a handy draw two and is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card. CHAMBERMAID missed out on her hat-trick when finishing fifth in her latest start over seven furlongs, 2.3L back from the victor when returning from a 21 week break. She was only run out of it very late that day and from gate five, she could be the biggest danger to the top choice. SUGAR BABY had finished third in her two runs prior to winning last time out over six furlongs by just over half a length, this despite jumping awkwardly. She faces a wideish draw seven, but a repeat of that last effort could see her chalk up a quick double. 

Race 6.

FENDER finished a little disappointing fifth in his last start over seven furlongs and was immediately rested for 20 weeks. The gelding returns here without having had the benefit of a barrier trial, so his fitness will have to be taken on trust, but the form of that last race has stood up well to boost his claims for victory in this contest. He will have to negotiate a wide draw thirteen, but with a bit of luck in running, he should be right up there when they hit the line. ROTHENBURG has finished third in his last two runs, the latest over seven furlongs, just over a length back from the winner. He finished strongly that day and jumping from draw three, he could threaten the top pick. Although PLONKA is recorded as finishing sixth in his last outing over seven furlongs, he was just over two and a half lengths behind the winner. He was making good late progress that day and starting from gate six, he should not be lightly dismissed in this line-up.

Race 7.

Two 3yr old fillies could fight out the finish to this race and secure the exacta, but the day’s best bet, WATER DOVE is the clear top selection. She finished second in her last start over five furlongs in a Class 2 H’cap, just a half length back in heavy going after only being run out of it very late. As she is likely to encounter similar conditions today, she could chalk up her third career victory here. SUROOJ returns from a 24 week break, but she has had two barrier trials, finishing second in the first of these to prove her well-being. She stayed on well when ending up in nineth place last time out over 1875M, just over four and a half lengths behind the winner. She jumps from a cozy draw three and should enjoy the drop in trip. FAVRA was making good late progress when ending up fifth last time out over seven furlongs, just under two lengths adrift of the victor. He jumps from draw five and will get 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice to aid his cause.

Race 8.

JAHBATH is seldom far off the action and finished fourth in his last outing over a mile, just over a length and a half behind the winner. He stayed on resolutely that day and notwithstanding his wide draw eleven, he could be the one to side with here. A 5yr old mare and a 4yr old filly could chase him home. SANTA MARGHERITA raced three wide from the 650M mark, before coming home victorious by 1.1L last time out over seven furlongs in heavy going. She has gate eleven and should keep the top choice honest. DREAM SONG came the widest of them all into the home straight before battling all the way down to the wire to end up just over a length and a half behind the winner over the mile journey. She faces draw five and should be included in all bets.