Winning Form brings us their best bets and tips from Mackay and Taree, Australia on Friday 16 July 2021.
Best Bet: STUBAI (Race 7)
Value Bet: BRAD (Race 8)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
CHARLES SEVEN goes for his hat-trick after victories over 1100M and the latest over six furlongs by one and a half lengths and the form of that race has been franked. He went from jump to wire that day and from his handy draw two, he is likely to attempt similar tactics here.
WHICH LILY is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has consistent formlines to her name, having won twice, placed second three times in her last five outings, the latest, one of the third spot finishes when 2.8L back from the winner over five furlongs. She will need to overcome a wide gate twelve, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
GAMBOA is seldom far off the action and jumped awkwardly when ending up in second place last time out over five furlongs, 0.8L behind the winner. He has an even worse draw fourteen out of fourteen, but does have his first run for his new trainer and if fully settled into his new surroundings, he should turn in another honest performance today.
ROCK ‘N’ SOL has his hat-trick attempt after two wins over 1500M, the latest by 0.9L, despite having to be held up at the 200M mark. He has a cosy draw two and the trio of victories is very much on the cards.
BOOM GATE has solid formlines to his credit, finishing third in his last start over seven furlongs, beaten just a head. He came four-wide into the home straight in that contest, but is drawn one outside the top choice and should be right up there when they hit the line.
BOLD INSPIRATION is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she finished strongly to get up in the shadow of the post to win her last outing over his distance by a short-head. She has a wideish draw eight, but she should give the boys a good run for their money and should be included in all bets.
The day’s best bet, STUBAI followed up his penultimate run victory over a mile with a second-place finish next time out over the same c&d, one length back from the winner. He is a consistent sort who won over seven furlongs four runs back. He will have to negotiate draw eleven, but nevertheless, he could be better than the balance of this line-up.
MONSIEUR MACRON had his consistency rewarded with a head win last time out over seven furlongs. He jumps from a kinder draw six and will have a set of cheekpieces fitted for the first time. If these have the desired effect, he could emerge as the biggest threat to the top pick.
PLANET WARRIOR has cracked pole position and has won two of his last three outings, the latest over 1500M by a length. He is likely to turn in another honest performance today and should be involved in the finish.
BRAD missed out on his hat-trick when finishing a short-head second in his last start over 1100M and was immediately moved to a new stable. He has drawn gate three and if fully acclimatized in his new environment, he should be right up there in the firing line. As such, he is taken to be the value bet on the day’s program.
Although RIGHT OR WRONG is recorded as finishing seventh in his latest outing over a mile, he was just under two lengths adrift of the victor. He battled all the way down to the wire that day and if showing the same determination here and from a handy draw two, he should make his presence felt here.
LAST CHANCE goes for his hat-trick after wins over six furlongs and the latest over 1300M by 0.8L. He faces the widest draw of them all in gate fourteen, but he is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the frontrunner over the closing stages of the race.
Best Bet: ONEHERO (Race 7)
Value Bet: MCNAIR (Race 8)
Jackpot (race 5 – 8)
MR EIGHTY EIGHT has consistent formlines to his name and finished a short-head second in his last start over a mile. He attracted plenty of betting support that day and from draw six and with having 3kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice, he looks to be the one to side with here.
ALASTOR is drawn one outside the top choice and finished third last time out when stepping up to ten furlongs, two and a half lengths behind the winner and the form of that race has been franked. He did finish second in his penultimate start over this c&d, so the drop in trip should not be an issue.
BAXTER showed marked improvement to win his maiden race last time out over six furlongs by a head when returning from a 21-week break. He takes on stronger here, but he has a handy draw three and should be right up there when they hit the line.
PLEADING is a 3yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has only had the two runs to date, finishing third on debut over five furlongs and then showing the expected improvement to win by 1.8L over the same c&d at the second time of asking, when returning from a lengthy 46 week absence. She hung over the latter stages of that race, which makes the victory that much more encouraging.
TUPOU followed up his penultimate run victory over 1100M with a third-place finish next time out over five furlongs, just under two lengths back from the winner. He made good late progress that day and from gate five, he should be right up there in the mix.
SUPERIOR WITNESS put a disappointing penultimate effort firmly behind him when winning by two and a half lengths last time out over five furlongs when returning from a 17-week rest. It should be noted that the penultimate run was in a Class 2 Handicap at a stronger centre, so that effort can perhaps be forgiven.
The day’s best bet, ONEHERO is lightly raced, having had just the five runs to date, but has shown steady improvement over the last three, culminating with his maiden win last time out over a mile by a short-head. He has a wideish draw eight, but he appears to be good enough to complete a quick double.
CONDOVER HALL won his penultimate outing over seven furlongs and then went on to finish third in his next start over same trip, 3.3L back from the winner. He will have to overcome a wide gate fifteen, but he should use his early gate speed to move across without using up too much energy.
GREAT MARLOW is seldom far off the action and finished strongly to end up in fourth place last time out over seven furlongs, just over two and a half lengths behind the victor. He has a kinder draw nine and should be doing his best work late.
MCNAIR has put in two solid last efforts, the latest when winning his maiden race over six furlongs by 1.8L. He finished well that day and from draw twelve, he is likely to be doing his best work late. As such, he is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.
ZARU is drawn one outside the top pick and has a win sandwiched between two second places finishes to his credit. By contrast, he possesses good early gate sped which he is likely to use to move over without expending too much energy.
PAXOS MISS is a 3yr old filly taking on males, but she won her penultimate start over six furlongs and then finished fifth next time out over the same c&d, two lengths adrift of the winner. She has finished third in a subsequent barrier trial. She is another with a wide draw, in her case gate fifteen, but she also has early gate speed to work her way across when the gates crash open.